Current situation of cobalt resources and analysis of supply and demand situation in the next 5-10 years
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摘要:
研究目的 钴是重要的新能源矿产，动力电池装机量的急速攀升为其带来了广阔的市场发展前景，把握钴资源特点及供需形势对于地质勘查行业及后段产业链均具有重要意义。
研究方法 文章主要通过调查法、定量分析法与定性分析法，对调查中收集的大量数据进行分析、比较、总结归纳。
研究结果 从钴的全球资源分布特征、供应及贸易格局、消费历史及趋势等方面系统地分析了全球钴资源的特点及供需形势，同时结合产业现状对钴市场前景进行了研判。
结论 一是当前全球可开发利用的钴资源分布较为集中，沉积型砂岩铜-钴矿床主要分布在刚果（金）、风化型红土镍-钴矿以澳大利亚最为典型、岩浆岩型铜-镍-钴硫化物矿床以加拿大为代表；二是钴勘查资金主要流向了刚果（金）、澳大利亚、加拿大以及美国，但勘查投入尚未转化为产能，全球钴产量已出现下滑；三是全球钴矿巨头市场占有率逐步加强，正在向“双寡头”局面演化；四是以电池为主的消费结构及以中国为主的消费主体支撑了全球钴消费量持续稳定增长；五是全球主流机构对于钴市场前景一致看好，本文预计未来5—10年钴市场将持续繁荣，但需警惕电池产业技术革新与更替等风险。
Abstract:This paper is the result of mineral exploration engineering.
Objective Cobalt is a significant new energy mineral, and power batteries provide a wide range of market development opportunities as a result of the power batteries' quick increase in installed capacity. Evaluating the properties of cobalt deposits and the current state of supply and demand is essential for the geological exploration and subsequent industrial chain.
Methods Mainly through the investigation method, quantitative analysis method and qualitative analysis method, we analyze, compare, and summarize large amounts of data collected in surveys.
Results The article examines the characteristics of the world's cobalt resources and the supply and demand situation from the perspectives of global resource distribution, supply and trade patterns, consumption history, and trends. It also conducts research and makes conclusions about the market's prospects based on the current state of the sector.
Conclusions First, cobalt resources that can be developed and utilized in the world are relatively concentrated. Sedimentary sandstone copper-cobalt deposits are primarily found in Congo (Golden), weathered laterite nickel-cobalt deposits are mainly distributed in Australia, and magmatic rock-type copper-nickel-cobalt sulfides deposits are mostly discovered in Canada. Second, the majority of cobalt exploration funding go to the Congo (Kinshasa), Australia, Canada, and the United States, but there has been a drop in global cobalt output because the funds have not yet been translated into production capacity. Third, a "duopoly" situation is developing due to the global cobalt mining giants' steadily growing market dominance. Fourth, the global cobalt consumption structure has been supported by the battery-based consumption structure and consumers in China. Fifth, while all major institutions around the world are positive about the future of the cobalt market, this article expects it will continue to grow over the next five to ten years. However, there are risks to keep an eye out for, like technological advancements and competition in the battery sector.
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Key words:
- cobalt /
- resource distribution /
- reserves /
- production /
- consumption /
- battery /
- Congo (DRC) /
- mineral exploration engineering
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表 1 钴矿床主要类型划分及特点
Table 1. Classification and characteristics of main types of cobalt deposits
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表 2 全球前十大钴矿矿床资源储量一览
Table 2. List of the world's top ten cobalt deposits in the reserves and resource
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表 4 2020年以来全球主流机构对钴需求前景预测
Table 4. Forecast of cobalt demand prospects by global mainstream institutions since 2020
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表 5 2015—2021年中国各类动力电池市场份额（数据来源：Wind，2021）
Table 5. 2015-2021 China's market share of various power batteries(Data sources: Wind, 2021)
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