Seismic landslide hazards assessment along the Xianshuihe fault zone, Tibetan Plateau, China
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摘要:
鲜水河断裂带是青藏高原东南缘一条大型左旋走滑断裂带, 断裂带沿线地形地貌和地质条件复杂, 历史地震频发, 并诱发大量地震滑坡灾害, 对重大工程建设和人民生命财产造成巨大的影响。基于鲜水河断裂带区域地震滑坡防控需要, 在研究分析区域地质灾害成灾背景和发育分布特征的基础上, 选取鲜水河断裂带两侧约20 km的区域, 采用Newmark模型完成了鲜水河断裂带地震滑坡危险性预测评价。结果显示, 地震滑坡极高危险性区、高危险区、中等危险区及低危险区分别占研究区总面积的6.28%、11.77%、33.33%和48.62%, 危险性较高的地区主要分布在康定-磨西段及大渡河附近, 有63.66%的地震滑坡分布在地震滑坡极高和高危险区。成功率(ROC)曲线检验结果表明, 此次滑坡危险性性评价的准确率为74.3%, 评价结果精确度较高。规划建设中的川藏铁路经泸定县、康定市地震滑坡危险性较高的地区, 因此工程规划建设时需加强铁路隧道口附近潜在地震滑坡危害评判及防控, 研究结果将为该区地质灾害防治工作和川藏铁路建设提供参考。
Abstract:The Xianshuihe fault zone is a large active left-lateral strike-slip fault zone in the southeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Southwest China, the geomorphology and geological structure along the fault zone is complex, and historical earthquakes occur frequently, which induce a large number of seismic landslide disasters, causing a huge impact on major construction projects and people's lives and properties.For the long-term prevention of seismic landslides in the Xianshuihe fault zone, an area of about 20 km on both sides of the Xianshuihe fault zone was selected for remote sensing interpretation and field geological survey, a total of 399 historical seismic landslides were found in the region, with overall characteristics of high remote, one slide to the bottom and cracked but not slipped.On the basis of studying and analyzing the disaster background and development and distribution characteristics of regional geological disasters, the Newmark model was used to complete the seismic landslide hazards assessment with exceeding probability 10% of 50 years in Xianshuihe fault zone.The results showed that the extremely high-risk area, high-risk area, medium-risk area, and low-risk area of seismic landslides account for 6.28%, 11.77%, 33.33%, and 48.62% of the total area of the study area, respectively.The Kangding-Moxi section and the vicinity of Dadu River are areas with high seismic landslide hazards.63.66% of seismic landslides are distributed in extremely high and high seismic landslide hazards areas, the test results of the success rate (ROC) curve show that the accuracy of the landslide risk assessment is 74.3%, and the accuracy of the evaluation results is high.The Sichuan-Tibet Railway under planning and construction extends from Luding County and Kangding City, where there is a high risk of seismic landslide.Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the evaluation and prevention of potential seismic landslide hazards near the railway tunnel entrance in the project planning and construction.The seismic landslide hazards zoning results of the Xianshuihe fault zone will provide reference materials and scientific guidance for the prevention and control of seismic and geological disasters in this region and the construction of the Sichuan-Tibet railway.
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表 1 鲜水河断裂带工程地质岩组与物理力学参数
Table 1. Physical and mechanical properties of engineering geological rock groups in the Xianshuihe fault zone
ID 工程地质岩组名称 c'/kPa ϕ'/° γ/(kN·m-3) 1 坚硬的厚层状砂岩岩组 26 33 26 2 较坚硬—坚硬的中—厚层状砂岩夹砾岩、泥岩、板岩岩组 25 32 25 3 软硬相间的中—厚层状砂岩、泥岩夹灰岩、泥质灰岩及其互层岩组 25 32 24 4 软弱—较坚硬薄—中厚层状砂、泥岩及砾、泥岩互层岩组 20 27 23 5 软弱的薄层状泥、页岩岩组 24 31 21 6 坚硬的中—厚层状灰岩及白云岩岩组 23 31 25 7 较坚硬的薄—中厚层状灰岩、泥质灰岩岩组 23 30 24 8 软硬相间的中—厚层状灰岩、白云岩夹砂、泥岩、千枚岩、板岩岩组 22 29 23 9 较坚硬—坚硬薄—中厚层状板岩、千枚岩与变质砂岩互层岩组 21 28 22 10 较弱—较坚硬的薄—中厚层状千枚岩、片岩夹灰岩、砂岩、火山岩岩组 28 35 21 11 坚硬的块状玄武岩为主的岩组 27 34 29 12 坚硬块状花岗岩、安山岩、闪长岩岩组 19 26 28 13 软质散体结构岩组 15 25 18 注：ID与图 7-b中的工程地质岩组号码一致，c'为粘聚力，φ'为有效内摩擦角，γ为岩体重度 
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表 2 地震滑坡危险性分级统计
Table 2. Seismic landslide hazards classification statistics
地震滑坡危险区 分级面积/km2 分级面积比例/% 已发现的地震滑坡 滑坡数量/个 滑坡数量比例/% 滑坡面积/km2 滑坡面积比例/% 极高危险区 1931 6.28 140 35.09 57.76 70.62 高危险区 3619 11.77 114 28.57 15.34 18.75 中等危险区 10249 33.33 108 27.07 8.36 10.21 低危险区 14951 48.62 37 9.27 0.34 0.42
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