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摘要:
我国钴资源匮乏，钴的消费高度依赖海外资源，这导致我国钴资源供应面临较高风险。为了全面客观分析我国钴资源进口安全状况，首先对钴产品的进出口历史及现状进行了简要分析，然后建立了由对外依存度、进口集中度和进口国地缘政治风险组成的三维评价模型，对2001-2017年我国钴资源的进口安全进行了定量评价。结果显示2001-2007年，钴的进口来源国和进口份额相对分散；2008-2011年，钴的国内自给率较高，对外依存度处于历史最低水平；2012-2017年，三个指标均达到历史最高水平，表明进口安全状况不容乐观。最后建议通过优化进口地区及产品结构、建立进口安全监控机制、加强国内二次资源供应和国外勘查开发等方式，降低钴资源的海外供应风险。
Abstract:China's cobalt consumption is highly dependent on overseas resources due to resource scarcity, which leads to a high risk in the supply of cobalt for China. In order to analyze the import safety status of China's cobalt resources comprehensively and objectively, a brief analysis of the import and export history and current status of cobalt products is carried out, and then a three-dimensional evaluation model consisting of import reliance, import concentration and geopolitical risks of importing countries is established, which is used to evaluate the import safety of China's cobalt resources quantitatively from 2001 to 2017. The results show that from 2001 to 2007, the import sources of cobalt and the share of imports were relatively dispersed; from 2008 to 2011, the domestic self-sufficiency of cobalt was high, resulting in the lowest dependence on foreign resources in history; from 2012 to 2017, all three indicators reached high peaks, indicating that the import security situation was not optimistic. Finally, some suggestions to alleviate the supply risk of overseas resources are discussed, such as optimizing the structures of import sources and import products, establishing a monitoring mechanism of import safety, strengthening domestic secondary supply and foreign exploration and investment.
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Key words:
- cobalt /
- import security /
- import reliance /
- import concentration /
- geopolitical risk
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表 1 钴贸易产品及2017年中国贸易量
Table 1. Cobalt trade products and China's trade value in 2017
四位编码 六位编码 商品名称 进口/t 出口/t 净进口/t 2 605 260 500 钴矿砂及精矿 100 986 95 100 891 2 822 282 200 钴氧化物及氢氧化物 2 431.0 8 392.0 -5 961 8 105 810 510 湿法冶炼中间产品，未锻轧钴，废碎料，钴粉 — — — 810 520 湿法冶炼中间产品，未锻轧钴，钴粉 230 779.5 4 208.0 226 572 810 530 钴废碎料 — 30.76 -31 810 590 锻轧钴及钴制品 529.0 65.0 464 282 734 钴氯化物 — — — 282 739 氯化钴、氯化锂等氯化物 5 113.0 116 823.0 -111 710 291 523 乙酸钴 — — — 
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表 2 2001—2017年中国钴对外依存度
Table 2. Import reliance of china's cobalt from 2001 to 2017
年份 中国消
费量/t中国一次
产量/t中国二次
产量/t对外依
存度/%2001 4 797 150 1 000 76.03 2002 6 309 1 000 1 100e 66.61 2003 8 818 700 1 230e 78.17 2004 11 168 1 260 1 350e 76.58 2005 12 406 1 300 1 500 77.43 2006 15 182 2 300 1 600e 74.09 2007 17 121 2 000 1 780e 77.93 2008 18 655 6 000 1 940e 57.46 2009 18 845 6 200 2 112e 55.91 2010 22 083 6 500 2 300e 60.17 2011 24 921 6 500 2 500 63.89 2012 28 214 2 200 3 110e 81.17 2013 34 075 2 600 3 870e 81.00 2014 37 020 2 800 4 820e 79.42 2015 39 846 3 000 6 000 77.41 2016 41 082 3 100 6 500 76.63 2017 44 216 3 100 7 000 77.16 注：e代表估计值。
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表 3 2001—2017年我国钴进口安全指标计算结果
Table 3. Indicators of cobalt import security from 2001 to 2017
年份 HHI 第一进口国占比 第二进口国占比 第三进口国占比 WGI 第一进口国WGI 第二进口国WGI 第三进口国WGI IR 2001 1 541 刚果(金)27% 古巴15% 南非14% 6.0 8.2 6.1 4.2 76.0% 2002 2 104 刚果(金)34% 刚果(布)22% 古巴15% 6.5 8.2 7.3 6.1 66.6% 2003 2 923 刚果(金)42% 刚果(布)31% 南非14% 6.8 8.2 7.2 4.1 78.2% 2004 3 206 刚果(金)41% 刚果(布)36% 南非12% 7.0 7.1 8.4 4.1 76.6% 2005 3 539 刚果(金)52% 刚果(布)26% 南非13% 7.1 8.3 7.4 4.1 77.4% 2006 4 861 刚果(金)67% 刚果(布)18% 南非8% 7.4 8.2 7.3 4.1 74.1% 2007 4 230 刚果(金)60% 刚果(布)25% 南非4% 7.3 8.1 7.3 4.3 77.9% 2008 6 338 刚果(金)78% 刚果(布)13% 古巴3% 7.6 8.0 7.2 6.0 57.5% 2009 6 724 刚果(金)82% 刚果(布)6% 南非3% 7.6 8.2 7.1 4.4 55.9% 2010 7 924 刚果(金)89% 南非3% 古巴2% 7.9 8.3 4.4 6.0 60.2% 2011 7 939 刚果(金)89% 南非3% 赞比亚3% 7.9 8.3 4.4 5.5 63.9% 2012 8 717 刚果(金)93% 澳大利亚1% 古巴1% 7.9 8.2 1.7 6.0 81.2% 2013 8 670 刚果(金)93% 赞比亚3% 澳大利亚1% 7.8 8.1 5.4 1.8 81.0% 2014 8 818 刚果(金)94% 赞比亚2% 俄罗斯1% 7.8 8.0 5.5 6.3 79.4% 2015 8 795 刚果(金)94% 南非1% 俄罗斯1% 7.8 8.1 4.6 6.5 77.4% 2016 7 813 刚果(金)88% 南非3% 赞比亚2% 7.7 8.1 4.6 5.6 76.6% 2017 8 777 刚果(金)94% 刚果布2% 新喀里多尼亚1% 8.1 8.3 7.2 2.7 77.2%
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