Advances in groundwater numerical simulation in deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste
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摘要:
地下水流数值模型不仅是认识深部水动力场形成演化机制的有效工具，也是建立核素迁移数值模型的基础，因而是高放废物处置场选址和安全评价中重要的技术手段。高放废物深地质处置地下水流数值模拟方法较多，如何选择适当的方法也是值得关注的问题。针对高放废物深地质处置地下水流数值模拟技术展开研究，通过阅读大量国内外文献，文章系统阐述了目前常用的4 类地下水流数值模拟方法的研究进展、适用条件和实例应用；综述了深地质处置中常用的模型不确定性分析方法及研究成果，列表给出了适用于放射性废物地质处置的地下水流数值模拟软件及其在废物处置选择和安全评价中的应用。研究结果表明：等效连续介质模型适用于大区域、长序列、裂隙发育程度较高或较均匀的地区，该类模型方法成熟、所需的数据和参数易于获得，但是不能精确刻画裂隙介质中地下水的流动特征。离散裂隙网络模型适合解决处置场地、储罐尺度等需要精细刻画的地下水流问题，但由于需要大量裂隙及其连通性数据、相关参数等，该方法存在着工作量大、耗时多的缺点。双重介质模型主要用于解决区域尺度裂隙水流问题，但并不能表现出裂隙介质的各向异性、不连续性等特征，因而适用范围存在一定的限制。等效-离散耦合模型可以通过区域分解法对裂隙密度大的区域采用等效连续介质模型，对于裂隙密度较小的地区采用离散裂隙网络模型，从而更符合一般地质条件下裂隙渗流的特征，但也存在交换量难以确定、模型耦合技术问题。通过灵敏度分析，将不同敏感因子对模型敏感指标的影响程度进行排序，提高模型精度、减少参数不确定性分析的工作量。蒙特卡罗法是目前常用的一种模型不确定性方法，原理简单、易于实现。文章展望了数值模型在仿真性、不确定性分析、预测和多介质耦合等方面的研究前景。
Abstract:Groundwater numerical model is not only an effective tool for understanding the formation and evolution mechanism of deep groundwater dynamic field, but also the basis for establishing numerical model of nuclide migration. Therefore, it is an important technical means in the site selection and safety assessment of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal repository. There are many numerical simulation methods for groundwater flow in deep geological disposal of HLW, and how to choose the suitable method is also a problem worth paying attention to. This article focuses on the research of groundwater numerical simulation technology for deep geological disposal of HLW. Through reviewing a lot of relevant papers, systematically expounds the research progress, applicable conditions and practical applications of four kinds of commonly used groundwater numerical simulation methods. In addition, summarizes the model uncertainty analysis methods and research results commonly used in deep geological disposal, and lists the numerical simulation software of groundwater flow suitable for geological disposal of HLW and its application in waste disposal selection and safety assessment. The results show that the equivalent continuum model is suitable for large, long sequence and high fracture development or uniform areas, with the advantages of mature method and easy to obtain the required data and parameters, but the flow characteristics of groundwater in fractured media cannot be described accurately. The discrete fracture network model is suitable for solving the groundwater flow problems that need to be finely described, such as disposal site and repository canister. However, due to the need for a large number of fracture characteristics, connectivity and related parameters data, this method has the disadvantages of heavy workload and time-consuming. The dual medium model is mainly used to solve the problem of regional-scale fractured groundwater flow, but it cannot show the characteristics of anisotropy and discontinuity of fractured media, so the scope of application has certain limitations. The equivalent discrete coupling model can adopt the equivalent continuum model for the area with high fracture density and the discrete fracture network model for the area with low fracture density through the domain decomposition method, which is more in line with the characteristics of fracture seepage under general geological conditions, but there is also the problems that the exchange capacity is difficult to determine and the coupling technology of two models. Sensitivity analysis sorts the influence degree of different sensitive factors on the model sensitive indexes, so as to improve the model accuracy and reduce the workload of parameter uncertainty analysis. Monte Carlo method is a commonly used method for model uncertainty analysis, which is simple in principle and beneficial to implementation. Finally, the author points out that numerical model simulation ability, uncertainty analysis, prediction simulation and multi-medium coupling model research should be strengthen in the future.
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表 1 主要软件介绍
Table 1. Introduction of main software
名称 软件描述 适合介质 用途及优缺点 实际应用 Modflow 模块化三维有限差分模型，用来模拟连续介质三维地下水流动的计算程序。MODFLOW2005整合了MODPATH、MT3DMS等质点追踪、溶质运移模块 等效连续介质 水资源评价、矿坑排水的设计和优化、圈定水源保护区、确定污染物去向和暴露途径等，应用广泛。具有强大可视化功能，操作简便 场地适宜性评价[54]，90Sr的二维剖面迁移[55] GMS 由图形用户界面和系列模块组成，Modflow模拟地下水运动，MT3DMS等模块可模拟核素迁移，FEMWATER耦合了3DFEMWATER、3DLEWASTE 等效连续介质 可进行水流、反应性溶质运移模拟、建立三维地层实体，进行钻孔数据管理、二维（三维）地质统计可视化地下水模拟软件，功能强大；但所需数据资料较多 降雨对铀的迁移扩散影响模拟[56] Tough2/3 一维、二维、三维孔隙或裂隙介质中多相流、多组分及非等温的水流及热量运移的数值模拟程序，模拟水流系统从微观到流域尺度的不同空间尺度变化 等效连续介质和裂隙介质 应用范围广泛，如地热储藏工程、核废料处置、二氧化碳地质处置等 I和Cs在废物处置库黏土缓冲材料中的迁移行为[57]，处置场的135Cs核素迁移模拟[58] Hydrus 模拟非变饱和多孔介质中一维、二维、三维水流、热和溶质运移的数值模型，上边界条件处理灵活方便 等效连续介质 模拟土壤中水分、盐分、污染物运移；在国内得到广泛的应用 放射性核素在非饱和带迁移行为评价[59]，填埋场放射性核素迁移模拟[60] Feflow 模拟有压或无压地下水二维和三维、稳定流或非稳定流、区域和断面、流体密度耦合或者非耦合、变饱和的渗流、溶质运移以及热运移 等效连续介质和裂隙介质 应用广泛，剖分方便，可进行离散裂隙网络的水流、溶质及热运移模拟。源汇项菜单功能过于集中，功能复杂 丘陵山区地下水流动特征下氚的迁移规律[52] Goldsim 风险模拟和蒙特卡罗模拟软件，定量表示所有复杂系统中固有的不确定性和风险，同时支持决策和风险分析，进行环境系统、工程系统和业务建模 近场库室工程屏障 模拟近场处置设施中核素在工程屏障与自然环境传输的情形，解决与生态和自然资源管理、污染预防、危险废物管理和环境恢复相关的问题，扩展性强，高度图形化 内华达试验场Yucca Mountain总体系统性能评价分析[61]，核素释放及远场迁移行为[62-63] Hydrogeosphere 三维控制体积有限元模拟器，包括地下水和地表水模块，可进行二维地表径流、三维变饱和流、稳定流/非稳定流以及密度流模拟等 等效连续介质、裂隙介质和双重介质 应用于水资源综合评估和流域水文特征分析以及污染物在地表和地下水中的运移等研究中。具有先进的迭代技术、强大的计算功能以及强大的三维可视化功能 锦屏水电站坝址区水流和溶质运移模拟[64]，Olkiluoto场址地下水流动及溶质运移模拟[51] Connectflow 包括等效多孔介质（EPM）模块和DFN模块。可模拟饱和、非饱和地下水流动与核素运移，裂隙网络中密度变化的流动和输运等 等效连续介质、裂隙网络介质 应用于放射性废物处置中的安全评估、盐水入侵、填埋场建模、含水层污染等研究。可以模拟各种规模的裂隙和多孔介质中的地下水流动和输运 EDZ（开挖扰动区）对处置库附近区域的扰动影响[36] Porflow 解决涉及瞬态或稳态流体流动，热、盐和质量传输的多相、多孔或裂隙介质中的动态相变等问题。适应交替的流体和介质属性关系以及复杂和任意的边界条件 等效连续介质、裂隙介质 应用于盐水侵入淡水含水层和危险废物处理场所等研究。可用并行计算，精度和计算高效，但输入、输出过程非常耗时；不是一个真正的两相流代码 处置单元内放射性核素迁移行为[44] 
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