Research on early-warning prediction model of critical slide of creep landslide based on the MACD index
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摘要:
滑坡的临滑预警预报研究一直以来都是热点也是难点。速度倒数模型是目前广泛使用的临滑预报模型，选择恰当的拟合曲线起始点将提高预报模型的精度。利用经济学上非常成熟的平滑异同平均线指标（MACD）快速寻找速度倒数模型拟合曲线的起始点，也就是滑坡临滑加速变形阶段开始加速（Onset of Acceleration，OOA）点，并以云南省会泽县的区布嘎滑坡为例，使用该指标对滑坡体进行临滑预报，并对该模型准确性进行了评估。结果表明：当变形速度的MACD值在−1~1的区间时，代表滑坡变形速度虽然有所增加，但变形趋势并未整体改变；当MACD值超过−1~1的区间，代表滑坡变形趋势整体发生改变，可将此阶段短期平均线上穿长期平均线的点（同时也是MACD值由负转正的点），作为滑坡OOA点。利用MACD指标能够快速有效的寻找拟合曲线起始点，利用指数平滑函数（ESF）处理的监测数据，拟合曲线的确定系数最高，误差率最低，误差率低于2%，模型预测结果随着数据的更新，将不断逼近真实结果，具有较高的准确率。
Abstract:The forecast of landslide’s early-warning prediction is always a hot and difficult issue. The inverse velocity method is wildly used for the landslide forecast, while the accuracy of the prediction is directly affected by the appropriate starting point of the fitting curve. This paper introduces the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) index, which is a mature forecasting method in the financial filed, to quickly search the start point of fitting curve (that is, onset of acceleration during the stage of accelerated deformation). The accuracy of the model is evaluated by the case of the Qubuga landslide in Huize County, Yunnan Province. The study results show that when the MACD index of deformation rate is in the range of −1 to 1, the deformation trend of landslide does not change. When the MACD index exceeds the range of −1 to 1, the deformation tendency radically changes and the point at which the short-term average line crosses the long-term average line and the MACD index changes from negative to positive can be regarded as the onset of acceleration. The starting point of the fitting curve is quickly and effectively found by the MACD index, and the monitoring data processed by the exponential smoothing function (ESF) has a higher certainty coefficient and lower rate of deviation, less than 2%. With the update of the data, the prediction results of the model approach the actual time of failure and has higher accuracy.
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表 1 预测时间与真实滑动时间误差表
Table 1. Error rates of predicted time and real landslide time of GNSS-1 and GNSS-2
监测仪编号 监测时间/d 预测时间/d 滑动时间/d 预测与滑动时间之差/d 误差率/% GNSS-1 100 104.88 107 −2.12 1.98 101 106.90 107 −0.10 0.09 102 107.22 107 0.22 0.21 103 106.66 107 −0.34 0.32 104 106.56 107 −0.44 0.41 105 106.74 107 −0.26 0.25 106 107.04 107 0.04 0.04 GNSS-2 102 105.29 107 −1.71 1.60 103 105.59 107 −1.41 1.32 104 105.71 107 −1.29 1.20 105 106.08 107 −0.92 0.86 106 106.52 107 −0.48 0.45 
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