Assessment on the susceptibility of sudden geological hazards in mountainous areas of Beijing
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摘要:
北京山区地质环境条件复杂，发育大量突发地质灾害隐患，既直接威胁山区村庄、道路、景区的人员及设施的安全，又会对城镇的规划建设构成威胁。通过开展地质灾害易发性评价工作，划分出地质灾害易发区，以评价结果指导城镇建设规划，减轻地质灾害的威胁，这是一项十分重要的工作。文章在阐述北京山区崩塌、滑坡及泥石流突发地质灾害发育情况的基础上，选取了坡度、起伏度、工程地质岩组、地质构造、地貌类型及降水等6个影响因子，采用综合信息量模型方法，分别对北京山区斜坡类灾害（崩塌、滑坡）和泥石流灾害的易发性进行评价，并根据“就高不就低”的原则，叠加各灾种的易发性评价结果划分出北京山区突发地质灾害易发性分区图，为城镇建设适宜性评价、编制国土空间规划及完善空间治理提供科学的依据。
Abstract:The geological environment conditions of Beijing mountainous area are complex, and there are a lot of sudden geological hazards, which not only directly threaten the safety of people and fundamental facilities, roads and scenic spots in mountainous areas, but also threaten the planning and construction of cities and towns. It is a very important work to divide the geological disaster prone areas by evaluation of geological hazard susceptibility, so as to guide the urban construction planning and reduce the threat of geological disasters with the evaluation results. Based on the description of the sudden geological hazards development of rock fall, landslide, unstable slope and debris flow in Beijing mountainous area, the article selects six influencing factors, including slope, fluctuation, rock group of engineering geological, geological structure, geomorphic type and precipitation, and adopts the method of integrated information model to analyze the susceptibility of slope hazards including rock fall, landslide, unstable slope and debris flow in Beijing mountainous area. Then according to the principle of "high not low", the results of susceptibility of various hazards were superimposed to divide the susceptibility of sudden geological hazards in mountainous areas, which provides scientific basis for the suitability evaluation of urban construction, the compilation of land spatial planning and the improvement of spatial governance.
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表 1 崩塌、滑坡等斜坡类灾害易发性评价各评价因子信息量统计表
Table 1. Statistical table of information quantity of each evaluation factor for the assessment of the susceptibility of rock fall, landslide and unstable slope
评价因子 状态 信息量计算 信息量值 评价因子 状态 信息量计算 信息量值 Ni Si N S Ni Si N S 坡度 <15° 658 10264 3084 41957 −0.136775 地质构造 无断裂分布 2364 35489 3084 41957 −0.098450 15°~35° 2302 27693 3084 41957 0.123016 1条断裂分布 532 5256 3084 41957 0.319936 >35° 124 4000 3084 41957 −0.863350 2条断裂分布 134 941 3084 41957 0.661314 起伏度/m 0～30 8 2514 3084 41957 −3.139771 3条及以上断裂分布 54 271 3084 41957 0.997283 30～70 120 2343 3084 41957 −0.361278 地貌类型 中山 249 9340 3084 41957 −1.014191 70～200 1457 14085 3084 41957 0.341687 低山 1756 20188 3084 41957 0.168368 200～500 1483 22271 3084 41957 −0.098800 丘陵 796 7843 3084 41957 0.322640 500～1000 16 744 3084 41957 −1.229034 山间河谷 223 1146 3084 41957 0.973557 工程地质岩组 坚硬岩组 1367 18366 3084 41957 0.012535 山间盆地 0 11 3084 41957 0.000000 较坚硬岩组 1204 17247 3084 41957 −0.051571 山间湖泊 6 398 3084 41957 −1.584275 较软岩组 124 923 3084 41957 0.603070 平原 54 3031 3084 41957 −1.417246 松散岩组 389 5421 3084 41957 −0.024038 
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表 2 崩塌、滑坡等斜坡类灾害易发性分区等级与实际地质灾害分布对比表
Table 2. Comparison between the grade of prone area of rock fall, landslide and unstable slope and the distribution of actual geological hazards
易发程度 信息量值 a/% c/个 b/% b/a 高易发区 0.770977～2.233424 10.71 1287 31.85 2.97 中易发区 −0.881988～0.770977 56.76 2589 64.07 1.13 低易发区 −4.983309～-0.881988 32.53 165 4.08 0.13 注：1、a为本类易发性等级的面积占研究区总面积的百分比；b为落在该易发性分区内的灾害占灾害点总数的百分比；c为落在该类易发性分区内的灾害数量。2、上述面积统计不含密云水库的面积。
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表 3 泥石流灾害易发性评价各评价因子信息量统计表
Table 3. Statistical table of information quantity of each evaluation factor for the assessment of the susceptibility of debris flow
评价因子 状态 信息量计算 信息量值 评价因子 状态 信息量计算 信息量值 Ni Si N S Ni Si N S 坡度 <15° 806 10264 11379 41957 −1.239438 地貌类型 丘陵 892 7843 11379 41957 −0.869035 15°~35° 8771 27693 11379 41957 0.1551469 山间河谷 61 1146 11379 41957 −1.628283 >35° 1802 4000 11379 41957 0.5074785 山间盆地 0 11 11379 41957 0.000000 起伏度 0～30 m 1 2514 11379 41957 −6.524755 山间湖泊 4 398 11379 41957 −3.295282 30～70 m 70 2343 11379 41957 −2.205816 平原 18 3031 11379 41957 −3.8214 70～200 m 2650 14085 11379 41957 −0.365675 地质构造 无断裂分布 9308 35489 11379 41957 −0.033473 200～500 m 8320 22271 11379 41957 0.3202526 1条断裂分布 1661 5256 11379 41957 0.1529253 500～1000 m 338 744 11379 41957 0.5158806 2条断裂分布 323 941 11379 41957 0.2355849 工程地质岩组 坚硬岩组 6108 18366 11379 41957 0.203974 3条及以上断裂分布 87 271 11379 41957 0.168665 较坚硬岩组 4718 17247 11379 41957 0.0086225 降水 >650 mm 3275 8431 11379 41957 0.3592782 较软岩组 418 923 11379 41957 0.5127279 650～550 mm 5730 18002 11379 41957 0.1601084 松散岩组 135 5421 11379 41957 −2.387885 550～450 mm 2072 12880 11379 41957 −0.522286 地貌类型 中山 4056 9340 11379 41957 0.4707667 <450 mm 302 2644 11379 41957 −0.864745 低山 6348 20188 11379 41957 0.1479272
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表 4 泥石流灾害易发性分区等级与实际地质灾害分布对比表
Table 4. Comparison between the grade of prone area of debris flow and the distribution of actual geological hazards
易发程度 信息量值 a/% c/个 b/% b/a 高易发区 1.1206～2.1243 20.99 565 62.71 2.99 中易发区 −0.1453～1.1206 26.80 276 30.63 1.14 低易发区 −3.3329～−0.1453 46.63 60 6.66 0.14 不易发区 −14.8717～−3.3329 5.58 − − − 注：1、a为本类易发性等级的面积占研究区总面积的百分比；b为落在该易发性分区内的灾害占灾害点总数的百分比；c为落在该类易发性分区内的灾害数量。2、上述面积统计不含密云水库的面积。
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表 5 北京山区斜坡类灾害及泥石流灾害易发性分区统计表
Table 5. Statistical table of debris flow prone areas in mountainous areas of Beijing
易发性 高易发区 中易发区 低易发区 面积/km2 2718.98 4908.23 2348.03 比例/% 27.26 49.20 23.54 地质灾害隐患点数量/个 2512 2293 137 地质灾害隐患点密度/（个·km−2） 0.92 0.47 0.06 备注：上述面积统计不含密云水库的面积。
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