降雨及库水位影响下麻地湾滑坡地下水响应特征分析

檀梦皎; 殷坤龙; 付智勇; 朱春芳; 陶小虎; 朱延辉

doi:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2022.01-06

降雨及库水位影响下麻地湾滑坡地下水响应特征分析

1.
中国地质调查局南京地质调查中心，江苏南京　210016

2.
自然资源部流域生态地质过程重点实验室，江苏南京　210016

3.
中国地质大学（武汉）工程学院，湖北武汉　430074

4.
武汉大学水利水电学院，湖北武汉　430072

基金项目: 中国地质调查局地质调查项目（DD20190354）；国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC0809400）

详细信息

作者简介: 檀梦皎(1995-)，女，助理工程师，硕士，主要从事水文地质、工程地质方面的工作。E-mail：mengjiao_tania@163.com

通讯作者: 殷坤龙(1963-)，男，教授，博士生导师，主要从事地质灾害预测预报与风险管理方面的研究。E-mail：yinkl@126.com

中图分类号: P642.22

收稿日期: 2021-08-16

修回日期: 2021-08-24

刊出日期: 2022-02-25

Analysis on groundwater response characteristics of Madiwan landslide under the influence of rainfall and reservoir water

1.
Nanjing Center, China Geological Survey, Nanjing, Jiangsu　210016, China

2.
Key Laboratory of Watershed Eco-Geological Processes, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing, Jiangsu　210016, China

3.
Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan, Hubei　430074, China

4.
School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering ,Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei　430072, China

More Information

Corresponding author: YIN Kunlong

Received Date: 16 August 2021

Revised Date: 24 August 2021

Publish Date: 25 February 2022

摘要

摘要:
精细化衡量地下水对外界因素的响应规律对分析滑坡稳定性具有重要意义。考虑库岸边坡的稳定性同时受库水位和降雨作用影响，提出了一种基于数据挖掘的滑坡地下水响应特征的研究方法。以三峡库区麻地湾滑坡为例，首先通过特征时段分析和Granger检验确定地下水响应滞后期，然后基于响应滞后期确定地下水水位的影响因素，结合Apriori数据挖掘算法揭示了麻地湾滑坡地下水的响应特征。研究结果表明：滑坡前缘地下水变化与库水位波动相关性较大，滑坡中后缘地下水变化与降雨相关性较大; 麻地湾滑坡地下水对于降雨和库水位的最佳响应滞后期为1 d；滑坡后缘的地下水水位对降雨响应较为强烈，而前缘的地下水水位对库水位响应更为强烈。
- 麻地湾滑坡 /
- 三峡库区 /
- 响应特征 /
- Apriori算法 /
- 地下水
Abstract:
Refined measurement of the groundwater response to external factors is of great significance to the analysis of landslide stability. Considering that the stability of the reservoir landslide is affected by the reservoir water level and rainfall, based on the association rule mining method, the research method for revealing the response rules of the underground water suffered rainfall and periodic water level is proposed, taking the Madiwan landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example. First, the groundwater response lag period is determined through characteristic period analysis and Granger test, and then the influencing factors of groundwater are determined based on the response lag period. Finally, the groundwater response characteristics of the Madiwan landslide are revealed through the Apriori data mining algorithm. The research results show that the groundwater response at the front edge of the landslide has a greater correlation with the fluctuation of the reservoir water level, and the groundwater response at the middle and rear edge of the landslide has a greater correlation with rainfall. The best response lag period of the groundwater of the Madiwan landslide to rainfall and reservoir water is 1 day. The underground water level in the later part of landslide is sensitive to the rainfall, while that in the former part of the landslide is constantly related to the water level.
- Madiwan landslide /
- Three Gorges Reservoir area /
- response characteristics /
- Apriori algorithm /
- groundwater

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图 1 地下水响应特征研究流程图

Figure 1.

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图 2 三峡库区库水位变化图

Figure 2.

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图 3 麻地湾滑坡Ⅰ-Ⅰ′剖面示意图

Figure 3.

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图 4 麻地湾滑坡监测仪器布置图

Figure 4.

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图 5 地表位移变化速率与降雨时间序列图

Figure 5.

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图 6 地表位移变化速率与库水位变化时间序列图

Figure 6.

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图 7 麻地湾滑坡地下水位监测曲线

Figure 7.

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图 8 特征降雨时段地下水响应图

Figure 8.

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图 9 库水下降时段地下水位响应图

Figure 9.

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图 10 库水上升时段地下水位响应图

Figure 10.

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图 11 麻地湾滑坡地下水响应关联规则挖掘流程图

Figure 11.

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表 1 地下水位及库水位平稳性检验结果表

Table 1. Stationarity test results of groundwater and reservoir water level

序列	1%水平	5%水平	10%水平	T	P值	结论
库水位	−2.5984	−1.9455	−1.6137	−5.7075	0.0000	平稳
STK1	−2.5989	−1.9455	−1.6137	−3.1386	0.0021	平稳
STK2	−4.0925	−3.4743	−3.1644	−4.9619	0.0007	平稳
STK3	−3.5256	−2.9029	−2.5889	−4.2805	0.0010	平稳

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表 2 库水位—地下水Granger检验结果

Table 2. Granger test results of reservoir water-groundwater

原假设对象	滞后期/d	F统计量	显著性概率
STK1	5	3.00190	0.0180
	4	3.07922	0.0227
	3	3.46786	0.0214
	2	5.21193	0.0080
	1	9.27632	0.0033
	0	5.21193	0.0080
STK2	5	1.52280	0.1975
	4	1.74434	0.1524
	3	1.51933	0.2183
	2	0.85263	0.4310
	1	0.16541	0.6855
	0	0.85263	0.4310
STK3	5	0.80852	0.5485
	4	1.09865	0.3657
	3	0.27679	0.8419
	2	0.28017	0.7566
	1	0.51492	0.4755
	0	0.28017	0.7566

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表 4 降雨—地下水Granger检验结果

Table 4. Granger test results of reservoir water-groundwater

原假设对象一阶差分	滞后期/d	F统计量	显著性概率
ΔSTK1	5	3.47407	0.0140
	4	4.87326	0.0035
	3	7.717742	0.0007
	2	10.7237	0.0002
	1	17.9322	0.0001
	0	10.7237	0.0002
ΔSTK2	5	3.95676	0.0071
	4	5.43435	0.0048
	3	8.02101	0.0003
	2	12.3844	0.0000
	1	19.2297	0.0000
	0	12.3844	0.0000
ΔSTK3	5	1.98545	0.1096
	4	2.76818	0.0435
	3	4.03297	0.0143
	2	5.48946	0.0079
	1	10.3815	0.0025
	0	5.48946	0.0049

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表 3 地下水位及降雨平稳性检验结果表

Table 3. Stationary test results of rainfall and reservoir water level

序列	1%水平	5%水平	10%水平	T	P值	结论
日降雨	−3.6847	−2.9281	−2.6022	−5.7666	0.0000	平稳
STK1	−3.5847	−2.9281	−2.6022	−1.9409	0.3112	不平稳
STK2	−4.1756	−3.5130	−3.1868	−4.1466	0.0083	不平稳
STK3	−4.1809	−3.5155	−3.1882	−2.8101	0.2015	不平稳
ΔSTK1	−3.5885	−2.9297	−2.6030	−7.3686	0.0000	平稳
ΔSTK2	−2.6185	−1.9484	−1.6121	−7.3690	0.0000	平稳
ΔSTK3	−4.2191	−3.5330	−3.1983	−5.5752	0.0003	平稳

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表 5 降雨数据定性分级表

Table 5. Qualitative classification table of rainfall

降雨等级	单日降雨量/mm	定性化值
小雨	[0,10）	LightRain
中雨	[10,25）	ModerateRain
大雨	[25,55）	HeavyRain
暴雨	≥55	TorrentialRain

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表 6 库水位变动数据定性分级表

Table 6. Qualitative classification table of reservoir water level fluctuations

降雨等级	单日库水变化/m	定性化值
水位快速上升	≥1.0	QuicklyFill
水位中速上升	[0.4,1.0）	MediumFill
水位慢速上升	[0,0.4）	SlowlyFill
水位慢速下降	（−0.2,0）	SlowlyDewater
水位中速下降	（−0.4,0.2]	MediumDewater
水位快速下降	≤−0.4	QuicklyDewater

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表 7 地下水变动数据定性分级表

Table 7. Qualitative classification table of groundwater fluctuations

降雨等级	单日水位变化/m	定性化值
水位快速上升	≥1.0	QuicklyRise
水位中速上升	[0.1,1.0）	MediumRise
水位慢速上升	[0,0.1）	SlowlyRise
水位慢速下降	（−0.1,0）	SlowlyDecline
水位中速下降	（−0.5,0.1]	MediumDecline
水位快速下降	≤-0.5	QuicklyDecline

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表 8 地下水响应关联规则挖掘列表

Table 8. Groundwater response association rule mining result list

原假设对象一阶差分	规则	支持度/%	置信度/%	提升度
ΔSTK1	YR=LightRain&TR=HeavyRain&ΔYW=SlowlyFill→SlowlyRise	3.40	80	4.67
	YR=HeavyRain&RR=TorrentialRain&ΔYW=Slowlydewater→QuicklyRise	0.72	80	24.25
	YR=HeavyRain&ΔYW=SlowyDewater&ΔTW=SlowyDewater→MediumRise	0.88	80	9.42
ΔSTK2	RR=TorrentialRain&TR=HeavyRain→QuicklyRise	1.25	85.71	33.10
	RR=ModerateRain&ΔTW=MediumDewater& ΔYW=MediumDewater&TR=LifhtRain→MediumRise	0.83	93.33	16.09
	ΔYW=QuicklyDewater&YR=LightRain& ΔTW=SlowlyFill→SlowlyDecline	1.94	71.42	1.47
ΔSTK3	TR=HeavyRain&YR=LightRain&ΔTW=SlowlyDeWater→SlowlyRise	0.72	80	3.30
	YR=HeavyRain&RR=HeavyRain&ΔYW=QuicklyDewater→QuicklyRise	0.42	100	31.07
	YR=ModerateRain&RR=ModerateRain& ΔYW=SlowlyFill→MediumRise	0.43	100	17.09

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表 9 麻地湾滑坡地下水水位响应判别矩阵

Table 9. Groundwater level response judgment matrix of Madiwan landslide

	STK1				STK2				STK3
	小雨	中雨	大雨	暴雨	小雨	中雨	大雨	暴雨	小雨	中雨	大雨	暴雨
快速蓄水	□升降	△上升	△上升	◇上升	□升降	△上升	◇上升	◇升降	□升降	△上升	◇上升	◇上升
中速蓄水	□升降	△上升	△上升	◇上升	□升降	△上升	◇上升	◇升降	□升降	△升降	◇升降	◇上升
慢速蓄水	□升降	△上升	△上升	◇上升	□升降	△上升	◇上升	◇升降	□升降	△上升	△上升	◇上升
慢速降水	□下降	□下降	△上升	◇上升	□升降	△上升	◇上升	◇升降	□升降	△上升	◇上升	◇上升
中速降水	△下降	△下降	□上升	◇上升	□升降	△上升	◇上升	◇升降	□升降	△升降	△升降	◇上升
快速降水	△下降	△下降	□上升	◇上升	□升降	□上升	◇上升	◇升降	□升降	□上升	◇上升	◇上升
注：□代表“慢速”；△代表“中速” ；◇代表“快速”。

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