Stability of dangerous rockmasses and prediction of rockfall trajectory: A case study at Wansui Mountain in Ganzi County of Sichuan Province
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摘要:
甘孜县甘孜镇万岁山斜坡危岩带多年来时常有落石发生，严重威胁到了下方居民的生命财产安全，因此对万岁山斜坡进行危岩带稳定性分析与落石轨迹预测尤为重要。以万岁山斜坡的危岩带为对象，利用无人机倾斜摄影结合现场调查获取了危岩带几何尺寸和三维形态，分析了危岩带的发育特征和危岩体的分布特征，对危岩稳定性进行了分析；基于RAMMS-ROCKFALL考虑了危岩体的几何形状和三维地形，模拟了危岩体崩塌后可能的落石运动路径。结果表明：（1）斜坡整体性较完整，受风化作用主要失稳模式为坠落式和倾倒式，共发育有7处危岩带，地震工况下为不稳定状态； （2）通过模拟得到了滚落弹跳高度、速度、动能和轨迹、位置的关系，并通过预测落石运动轨迹得到了危岩带的威胁范围、威胁对象，预测结果表明万岁山斜坡对下方居民房屋和街道行人产生的威胁较大，应该尽快采取治理措施。研究成果表明无人机倾斜摄影的利用，有利于斜坡危岩体的稳定性分析，弥补了传统调查的盲区，提高了调查的效率与质量，对危岩体的调查与落石轨迹分析提供了一个新思路，对于减灾技术研究与危岩体的治理有积极意义。
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关键词:
- RAMMS-ROCKFALL /
- 危岩体 /
- 数值模拟 /
- 稳定性评价 /
- 落石轨迹
Abstract:The hazardous rock zone on the Wansui Mountain slope in Ganzi Town, Ganzi County, has experienced frequent rockfalls over the years, posing a serious threat to the lives and property of residents below. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct stability analysis of the hazardous rock zone and rockfall trajectory prediction for the Wansui Mountain slope. Focusing on the dangerous rock zone of Wansui Mountain's slope, the geometric dimensions and 3D morphology of the zone were obtained using drone oblique photography combined with field surveys. The development characteristics of the dangerous rock zone and the distribution characteristics of the dangerous rock bodies were analyzed, and the stability of the dangerous rocks was assessed. Based on RAMMS-ROCKFALL, considering the geometric shapes of the dangerous rocks and the 3D terrain, potential rockfall trajectories after the collapse of the dangerous rocks were simulated.The results show that:The slope is generally intact, with the main instability modes being falling and toppling due to weathering. A total of seven dangerous rock zones have developed, which are in an unstable state under seismic conditions; the simulation provided the relationships between rolling and bouncing heights, speeds, kinetic energy, trajectories, and positions. By predicting the rockfall trajectories, the threat range and targets of the dangerous rock zone were determined. The prediction results indicate a significant threat to the houses and pedestrians on the streets below the slope of Wansui Mountain, and remedial measures should be taken as soon as possible.The research results indicate that the use of drone oblique photography is beneficial for the stability analysis of dangerous rock bodies on slopes, compensating for the blind spots of traditional surveys, and improving the efficiency and quality of the investigation. This provides a new approach for the investigation of dangerous rock bodies and rockfall trajectory analysis, which has positive significance for disaster mitigation technology research and the management of dangerous rock bodies.
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表 1 基本特征表
Table 1. Basic characteristics table
编号 长度/m 分布高程/m 平均宽度/m 面积/m2 平均厚度/m 体积/m3 物质组成 WY01 35 3355～3366 10 358.7 3.5 1255.45 由碎裂状砂岩、板岩组成 WY02 105 3340～3370 30 328.1 3 9849.3 WY03 45 3341～3368 20 907.4 3.5 3174.9 WY04 50 3363～3391 12 607.4 3 1822.2 WY05 70 3360～3382 18 1215.2 3.5 4253.2 WY06 40 3365～3380 10 396.1 3.5 1291.85 WY07 60 3343～3354 5 252.7 3.5 989.45 
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表 2 节理裂隙特征表
Table 2. Joint fracture characteristics table
编号 平均坡度/（°） 坡向/（°） 岩层产状 岩性 节理裂隙 失稳模式 WY01 70 85 210°∠30° 薄-中厚层
状板岩①组：210°∠30°，裂隙延伸长度
约0.5～1.0 m，局部张开度1 cm②组：310°∠45°，裂隙延伸长度
约0.4～0.9 m，局部张开度2 cm倾倒式 WY02 70 92 180°∠20° ①组：205°∠34°，裂隙延伸长度
约0.6～1.2 m，局部张开度1.5 cm②组：306°∠44°，裂隙延伸长度
约0.5～1.0 m，局部张开度3 cm坠落式 WY03 70 92 180°∠20° ①组：205°∠32°，裂隙延伸长度
约1.1～1.5 m，局部张开度1.5 cm②组：304°∠40°，裂隙延伸长度
约1～2.0 m，局部张开度5 cm坠落式 WY04 70 92 180°∠20° ①组：209°∠31°，裂隙延伸长度
约0.8～1.2 m，局部张开度3 cm②组：308°∠41°，裂隙延伸长度
约0.9～2.1 m，局部张开度4 cm坠落式 WY05 72 101 180°∠20° ①组：207°∠33°，裂隙延伸长度
约0.6～1.2 m，局部张开度4 cm②组：306°∠45°，裂隙延伸长度
约1.3～2.7 m，局部张开度6 cm坠落式 WY06 76 107 180°∠20° ①组：211°∠32°，裂隙延伸长度
约0.7～1.5 m，局部张开度5 cm②组：312°∠41°，裂隙延伸长度
约0.8～2.2 m，局部张开度6 cm倾倒式 WY07 72 101 180°∠20° ①组：201°∠34°，裂隙延伸长度
约0.5～1.2 m，局部张开度4 cm②组：308°∠44°，裂隙延伸长度
约1.2～2.5 m，局部张开度4 cm倾倒式
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表 3 岩土物理力学参数取值
Table 3. Values of geotechnical physical and mechanical parameters
岩土层 重度指标 抗剪强度指标 天然状态
/（kN·m−3）饱水状态
/（kN·m−3）天然状态 暴雨状态 黏聚力
/kPa内摩擦角
/（°）黏聚力
/kPa内摩擦角
/（°）粉质黏土 19.0 20.5 19 20 15 17 碎石土 20.5 21.5 12 32 10 28.5 强风化板岩 23.9 24.1 - - - - 中风化板岩 24.9 25.8 425 38.2 - -
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表 4 危岩稳定性系数及稳定性评价
Table 4. Stability coefficients and stability evaluation of hazardous rocks
编号 WY01 WY02 WY03 WY04 WY05 WY06 WY07 天然状态 稳定系数 1.35 0.92 1.11 0.71 1.14 0.71 1.17 稳定性评价 基本稳定 不稳定 欠稳定 不稳定 欠稳定 不稳定 欠稳定 暴雨状态 稳定系数 1.31 0.90 1.10 0.69 1.09 0.69 1.11 稳定性评价 基本稳定 不稳定 欠稳定 不稳定 欠稳定 不稳定 欠稳定 地震状态 稳定系数 1.12 0.76 0.97 0.53 0.91 0.53 0.92 稳定性评价 欠稳定 不稳定 不稳定 不稳定 不稳定 不稳定 不稳定
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表 5 阻力特征系数K值计算公示表
Table 5. Calculation table for coefficient K of resistance characteristic
顺序 山坡坡度角/（°） K值计算公式 1 0～30 0.41+0.0043ɑ 2 30～60 0.543-0.0048ɑ+0.000162ɑ2 3 60～90 1.05−0.0125ɑ+0.0000025ɑ2
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表 6 落石威胁对象和到达威胁区概率
Table 6. Rockfall threat object and probability of arrival at threat zones
编号 威胁对象 到达威胁区概率/% 合计/% WY01 居民房屋 41.33 96.8 院内人员 55.47 WY02 居民房屋 88.32 95.62 院内人员 7.30 WY03 居民房屋 11.25 96.91 院内人员 85.66 WY04 居民房屋 26.66 26.66 WY05 居民房屋 81.78 97.23 街道行人和汽车 15.45 WY06 居民房屋 35.19 57.56 街道行人和汽车 22.37 WY07 居民房屋 99.51 99.51
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