Formation conditions and susceptibility assessment of karst collapses in the northern hilly area of Guangzhou City
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摘要:
岩溶塌陷是广州北部丘陵区主要地质灾害之一，对人民群众安全生产、和谐生活造成实际威胁，制约了当地乡村振兴发展。文章在分析广州北部丘陵区岩溶发育程度、覆盖层土体条件、地下水动力条件等岩溶塌陷形成条件的基础上，选择岩溶发育程度、土层厚度、土层结构、地下水水位年变幅、断裂影响范围、塌陷点密度等6个评价指标，利用层次分析法确定各指标权重，运用综合指数法建立岩溶塌陷易发性评价模型，进行广州北部丘陵区岩溶塌陷易发性评价。结果表明：广州北部丘陵区岩溶塌陷高、中等和低易发区面积分别为4.77，14.24，21.71 km，已发生的岩溶塌陷均分布在高易发区（94.29%）和中等易发区（5.71%），易发性分区评价合理。研究成果可为当地岩溶塌陷地质灾害预警和防治区划提供依据。
Abstract:Karst collapse is one of the main geological disasters in the northern hilly area of Guangzhou City, posing practical threats to public safety and affecting harmonious living conditions, thereby constraining local rural revitalization and development. This study analyzes the formation conditions of karst collapses in the northern hilly area of Guangzhou, including karst development degree, conditions of overlying soil layers, and hydrodynamic conditions of groundwater. Based on this analysis, six evaluation factors—karst development degree, soil layer thickness, soil layer structure, annual variation range of groundwater level, extent of fracture influence, and density of collapse points—are selected. The weight of each factor is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and a comprehensive index method is employed to establish the susceptibility assessment model for karst collapses in the northern hilly area of Guangzhou City. The results show that the areas of high, moderate, and low susceptibility to karst collapses in this region are 4.77, 14.24 , 21.71 km2, respectively. Karst subsidence occurrences are predominantly distributed in high vulnerability areas (94.29%) and moderate vulnerability areas (5.71%), validating the rationality of vulnerability zoning assessment. The research findings provide a basis for geological disaster early warning and prevention zoning for local karst collapse, and also provide geological support for promoting rural revitalization and development.
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表 1 岩溶塌陷易发性评价指标分类
Table 1. Classification of karst collapse susceptibility evaluation indexes
一级评价指标 二级评价指标 对岩溶塌陷的影响 权重 强 中 弱 基岩 岩溶发育程度 强发育 中等 弱发育 0.2717 覆盖层土体 土层厚度/m <15 15～30 >30 0.1960 土层结构 多层结构 双层结构 单层结构 0.1008 地下水 地下水变化幅度/（m·a−1） >1.0 1.0～0.5 <0.5 0.2157 地质构造 断裂影响范围/m <100 100～300 >300 0.0800 已发岩溶塌陷 塌陷点密度（个/10 km2） >10 2～10 <2 0.1359 
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表 2 岩溶塌陷易发性评价指标判断矩阵表
Table 2. Judgment matrix of karst collapse susceptibility evaluation index
评价指标 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 岩溶发育程度（B1） 1 2 2 2 2 2 土层厚度（B2） 1/2 1 3 1/2 3 2 土层结构（B3） 1/2 1/3 1 1/2 2 1/2 地下水变化幅度（B4） 1/2 2 2 1 2 2 断层影响范围（B5） 1/2 1/3 1/2 1/2 1 1/2 塌陷点密度（B6） 1/2 1/2 2 1/2 2 1
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表 3 岩溶塌陷易发性分级表
Table 3. Susceptibility classification table of karst collapse
等级 高易发性 中等易发性 低易发性 易发性指数 >2.26 1.88～2.26 <1.88
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