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摘要:
由河流入海泥沙在河口及其邻近区域不断堆积而逐渐形成的河口三角洲存在地貌学意义的生长极限。针对入海泥沙显著减少的背景，依据概念几何模型刻画了亚洲7个主要河口三角洲的发育规模，并探讨其滞留指数、临界输沙率和生长极限。结果表明：河口三角洲的规模与沉积物入海通量显著正相关；全新世期间，各河流均有超过一半的泥沙向外海逃逸；目前各河流入海泥沙通量低于保持其陆上面积的临界输沙率；在无海岸防护工程前提下，未来长江、珠江、红河、湄公河和印度河的三角洲平原面积和体积都将较目前大幅度减少，而伊洛瓦底江和恒河-布拉马普特拉河将增加。基于概念几何模型刻画河口三角洲的系统行为对其地貌演化规律的研究具有重要参考和指导意义。
Abstract:River deltas grow in response to sediment discharge from the land, and there is a limit of growth. A conceptual geometric model is used in this paper, based on the principle of mass conservation, to investigate the impact of the significant decrease in sediment supply to the growth of deltas taking seven large Asian river deltas as examples. Furthermore, the sediment retention index for the Holocene period, the critical river input for maintenance of a delta and the growth limit without human interferences are discussed. Preliminary analyses of these deltas indicate that the area of delta plain is roughly in an order of 103~104km2, and the volumes of 101~103km3, and both are significantly positively correlated with the fluvial flux before the large numbers of dams being constructed. The range of the Holocene retention index varies between 36%~54%, with an average of 45%, indicating that more than half of the sediment escaped offshore and supported the deposition of shelf mud or deep sea fan. For the Yangtze, the Pearl, the Red, the Mekong and the Indus rivers, their sediment discharges are now below the level required to maintain the area of the sub-aerial deltaic plain and the volume of the entire deltaic deposits, except for the Irrawaddy and the Ganges-Brahmaputra rivers, of which the river discharges are higher than the critical level required to maintain their total volumes, but lower than the critical level required to maintain deltaic plain areas. Without coastal protection projects, the area and volume for the former five deltas would drop sharply, but increase for the latter two. The present study has established the interrelationships between the growth magnitude, Holocene sediment retention index, the critical fluvial sediment flux and the growth limit of the seven Asian major river deltas, demonstrating that the method based on the conceptual geometric model has a great potential to predict the long-term evolution of river deltas.
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Key words:
- river delta /
- geometric conceptual model /
- retention index /
- growth limit /
- Asia
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表 1 亚洲主要河口三角洲几何参数特征值
Table 1. Geometric parameters of major river deltas in Asia
R1(km) R2(km) R1/R2 H1(m) α(°) β(°) γ(°) S(km2) V(km3) 长江三角洲 185 180 1.0 35 0.00010 0.00019 53 15899 551 珠江三角洲 137 57 2.4 15 0.00008 0.00026 41 6683 81 红河三角洲 164 41 4.0 20 0.00010 0.00048 50 11764 177 湄公河三角洲 225 55 4.0 15 0.00005 0.00027 76 33757 379 伊洛瓦底江三角洲 254 84 3.0 20 0.00006 0.00024 53 29726 462 恒河-布拉马普特拉河三角洲 416 95 4.4 35 0.00007 0.00037 44 66497 1728 印度河三角洲 192 47 4.0 20 0.00008 0.00042 51 16410 246 
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表 2 影响亚洲主要河口三角洲发育规模的边界参数特征值
Table 2. Characteristic values of catchment basin factors influencing area-volume of major river delta in Asia
流域面积
(104km2)最大高程
(m)径流量
(m3/s)侵蚀模数
(t/km2·a)海平面上升速率
(mm/a)地面平均沉降速率
(mm/a)可容空间增加速率
(mm/a)可容空间增加体积
(km3/a)参考文献 长江三角洲 196 6800 28278 251 2.5 3.0 5.5 0.25 [30, 32, 33] 珠江三角洲 44 3500 9510 185 4.4 2.5 6.9 0.05 [33-35] 红河三角洲 12 3000 3800 961 2.5 2.5 5.0 0.03 [33, 36] 湄公河三角洲 81 6100 14770 123 3 16 19.0 0.35 [33, 37] 伊洛瓦底江三角洲 43 5881 13558 614 4.7 15.3 20.0 0.46 [33, 38, 39] 恒河-布拉马普特拉河三角洲 160 7010 31000 701 9.9 9 18.9 0.64 [33, 42-44] 印度河三角洲 96 7830 7530 261 1.5 10 11.5 0.10 [33, 42-44]
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表 3 全新世亚洲7大河口三角洲滞留指数
Table 3. Sediment retention index of major river delta in Asia during the Holocene
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表 4 亚洲主要河口三角洲泥沙通量的临界值和实际值及地貌稳定性参数
Table 4. Critical and the present-day sediment fluxes, together with the parameters for geomorphological stability, of the major river deltas in Asia
Qs1
(Mt/a)Qs2
(Mt/a)建坝后泥沙通量
(Mt/a)体积变化趋势 陆上面积
变化趋势Rs1
(m/a)Rs2
(m/a)参考文献 长江三角洲 291 958 152 减小 减小 -6 -32 [53] 珠江三角洲 52 175 41 减小 减小 -2 -28 [58] 红河三角洲 72 159 39 减小 减小 -4 -14 [49] 湄公河三角洲 180 1107 70 减小 减小 -9 -80 [59] 伊洛瓦底江三角洲 162 1380 364 增大 减小 14 -70 [60] 恒河-布拉马普特拉河三角洲 511 2204 1131 增大 减小 19 -32 [61] 印度河三角洲 106 381 85 减小 减小 -2 -30 [52]
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表 5 亚洲主要河口三角洲的生长极限
Table 5. The growth limit of the major river deltas in Asia
Sf(km2) Et(t/(km2·a)) Sef(km2) R1e(km) R2e(km) Se(km2) Ve(km3) 长江三角洲 143704 2025 75062 134 130 8264 202 珠江三角洲 21186 2454 16704 122 51 5292 56 红河三角洲 20717 3475 11222 121 30 6354 69 湄公河三角洲 57813 3113 22483 140 34 13050 90 伊洛瓦底江三角洲 72183 2244 162188 381 126 67013 1573 恒河-布拉马普特拉河三角洲 106124 4815 234885 679 155 177141 7553 印度河三角洲 28295 3746 22689 172 42 13150 174
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