Disaster mechanism analysis and stability evaluation of shallow bedding landslide
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摘要: 为准确掌握浅层顺层滑坡的成因机制,合理评价其稳定性,基于滑坡所处地质条件,先开展其成因机制分析,再利用传递系数法和变形预测模型分别开展滑坡稳定性的现状评价及预测评价。实例分析表明: 浅层顺层滑坡的影响因素相对较多,且由于浅层滑坡的滑体厚度较薄,受外界扰动影响易较大,因此,浅层滑坡对各类因素的敏感性均较强。在滑坡稳定性现状评价结果中: 天然工况条件下的稳定性系数为1.21,属稳定状态; 暴雨工况条件下的稳定性系数为1.02,属欠稳定状态; 地震工况条件下的稳定性系数为1.09,属基本稳定状态。在滑坡稳定性预测评价结果中,滑坡各监测点位置处的变形预测速率均一定程度上大于现有变形速率,说明滑坡后续累计变形仍会进一步加速,其说明在本次监测时段后的滑坡稳定性将趋于减弱,需尽快开展此滑坡防治研究。研究成果可为浅层顺层滑坡灾害防治提供一定的理论指导。Abstract: In order to accurately grasp the formation mechanism of shallow bedding landslides and reasonably evaluate their stability, the authors in this article first conduct an analysis of their formation mechanism based on the geological conditions of the landslide, and then use the transfer coefficient method and deformation prediction model to carry out the current situation evaluation and prediction evaluation of landslide stability. Example analysis showed that there were relatively many influencing factors for shallow bedding landslide, and they were easily affected by external disturbances due to the thin thickness of the sliding body of shallow landslide. Therefore, shallow bedding landslide was highly sensitive to various factors. In the evaluation results of landslide stability status quo, the stability coefficient under natural condition was 1.21, with stable status, the stability coefficient under rainstorm condition was 1.02, with unstable status. and the stability coefficient under earthquake condition was 1.09, with basically stable status. In the landslide stability prediction and evaluation results, the deformation prediction rates at each monitoring point of the landslide were higher than the existing deformation rates to some extent, indicating that the cumulative deformation of the landslide would continue to accelerate in the future. The results also indicate that the landslide stability tend to weaken after this monitoring period, and it is necessary to carry out landslide prevention and control research as soon as possible. The study results could provide certain theoretical guidance for the prevention and control of shallow bedding landslide disaster.
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