Evaluation of regional geological disaster susceptibility based on different coupling models: A case study of Shangcheng County of Henan Province
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摘要: 为探索效果最优的地质灾害易发性评价模型,以商城县为研究区,结合其孕灾地质条件与地质灾害发育特征,分析地质灾害影响因素,从地理环境、地质环境、人类活动3个方面选取高程、坡度、坡向、剖面曲率、植被覆盖率、工程地质岩组、断层、道路、水系9个因子构建评价指标体系,运用证据权(weights of evidence,WofE)模型、信息量(information value,IV)模型、层次分析-信息量(analytic hierarchy process-information value,AHP-IV)耦合模型分别进行了地质灾害易发性分析。研究表明: AHP-IV耦合模型下的受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线的线下面积(area under curve,AUC)值最大,评价效果更为准确,更适用于商城县地质灾害易发性评价。通过评价可知,商城县地质灾害极高易发区沿沟谷、道路呈条带状分布,高易发区呈团状包围在极高易发区边缘,中、低易发区多分布在地势平坦、岩性较单一的北部平原地区。研究成果可为当地的地质灾害防治管控工作提供科学依据,也可为类似区域的地质灾害易发性分区提供参考。
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关键词:
- 地质灾害易发性 /
- 证据权模型 /
- 信息量模型 /
- 层次分析-信息量耦合模型 /
- 商城县
Abstract: In order to explore the optimal evaluation model of geological disaster susceptibility, the authors take Shangcheng County as a case to analyze the influencing factors of geological disasters, combined with its geological conditions and geological disaster development characteristics. The evaluation index system was constructed using nine factors from three aspects of geographical environment, geological environment and human activities, which includes elevation, slope, aspect, profile curvature, vegetation coverage, engineering geological rock group, fault, road and water system. The weights of evidence (WofE) model, information value ( IV ) model and analytic hierarchy process-information value ( AHP-IV ) coupling model were used to analyze the susceptibility of geological disasters. The results show that the area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve using the AHP-IV coupling model is the largest, and its evaluation effect the most more accurate, which is most suitable for the susceptibility evaluation of geological disasters in Shangcheng County. The extremely high-prone areas of geological disasters in Shangcheng County are distributed in strips along valleys and roads and the extremely high-prone areas are surrounded by the high-prone areas like clusters. While the middle and low-prone areas are mostly distributed in the northern plains with flat terrain and single lithology. The research results could provide scientific basis for local geological disaster prevention and control work, and also provide reference for geological disaster susceptibility zoning in similar areas. -
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