Assessment of the Environmental Risk of Groundwater Source Based on Trapezoidal Fuzzy Number
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摘要: 为降低环境健康风险评价的不确定性，在2017～2019年监测数据的基础上，基于梯形模糊理论构建了地下水环境健康风险模糊评价模型，并通过实地调研修正了暴露参数，对一亩泉水源地地下水环境开展健康风险研究。结果表明：该水源地的健康总风险在2.959×10-5～1.504×10-4 a-1，55%以上可信度下未超过Ⅲ级风险，总体为可接受水平，但在水源地上游的监测点，风险超过Ⅲ级风险，应引起必要重视；其中Cr（VI）为首要风险物，主要因为原生环境富含Cr，加以地下水长期开采等引发环境变化的驱动；不同受体对比，女性风险高于男性，成人风险高于儿童。相比传统模型，梯形模糊评价模型可更好刻画临界状态风险情况，相比三角模糊模型，其适用性更强；采用梯形模糊模型和选择恰当暴露参数是降低不确定性的重要手段，但模型本身的不确定性需进一步研究。Abstract: In order to reduce the uncertainty of the environmental assessment,this paper constructeda fuzzy groundwater evaluation model on the basis of the trapezoidal fuzzy theory and the monitoring data from 2017 to 2019. Through field investigation the authors revised the exposure parameters for the research of Yimuquan groundwater.The results show that the total health risk of the water source is between 2.959×10-5~1.504×10-4a-1,not exceeding the generally accepted Ⅲ risk level with the credibility of over 55%.However,in the upstream monitoring point,the risk has exceeded the Ⅲ level that should be given more concern.The primary risk substance is Cr because of the richness of Crin the original environment and the long-term exploitation of groundwater.In terms of different receptors,females have a higher risk than males,and adults higher than children.Compared with the traditional model,trapezoidal fuzzy evaluation model can better describe the risk of critical state and is more applicable than the triangular fuzzy model.Trapezoidal fuzzy model and appropriate exposure parametersare important to reduce the uncertainty,though the uncertainty of the model needs further study.
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Key words:
- groundwater source /
- trapezoidal fuzzy numbers /
- health risk assessment /
- uncertainty
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