MODELS FOR CLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTION UPON GLACIER EQUILIBRIUM-LINE ALTITUDE VARIATION
-
摘要: 冰川物质平衡线高度(equilibrium-line altitude,ELA)变化的研究是冰川学研究的重要内容,其变化情况将最终决定冰川的命运。与冰川的其他特征(如冰川长度、面积)相比,ELA的变化是气候变化最直接的反应,其变化量常被用于对比不同区域间的气候变化特征差异。基于冰川ELA变化的气候重建的统计学方法,如ELA处气温与降水关系模型、气温递减率模型(Lapse-rate model)和温度指数融化模型(Temperature index melt model),结构简单,能获得较好的模拟效果,但均未能从冰川变化的物理成因来研究影响ELA升降的气候因素,且在数据不足时理论也缺乏说服力;物理方法,如能量-物质平衡模型是基于影响冰川变化的能量因子来探讨ELA升降的机制,其参数较多、计算复杂,但精度较高。不同模型受其本身及冰川类型等因素的影响,适用性及精度差别较大。
-
关键词:
- 物质平衡线高度(ELA) /
- 气候重建 /
- 统计模型 /
- 能量-物质平衡模型
Abstract: The glacier ELA (equilibrium-line altitude) is one of the important parameters responding to climate change. Glacier behaviors such as advancing or retreating are controlled by the variations in ELA. In contrast to variations in glacier length or area, variations in ELA respond almost simultaneously to climate change; therefore, it could be used to analyze the characteristics of climate change in different regions. The statistical models of climatic reconstruction based on variations in ELA (e.g., the model based on the relationship between temperature and precipitation at ELA, Lapse-rate model and Temperature index melt model) have simple structure, and can get better simulation results. However, all of them could not be derived from physical causes influencing the ELA variation (e.g., climatic factors). Furthermore, they became limited in use and unconvincing in theory when lacking sufficient data. The physical methods (e.g., Energy and mass balance model) are based on the energy factor influencing glacier change and related to the mechanism of ELA variation. Although this model has many parameters and is very complicated in algorithm, it could get more accurate results. Due to the effect of glacier types and the limitation of each model, the applicability and accuracy of the different models are variable. -
-
[1] 谢自楚, 刘潮海. 冰川学导论[M]. 上海:科学普及出版社, 2010:116-124.[XIE Zichu, LIU Chaohai. Introduction of Glaciology[M]. Shanghai:Shanghai Popular Science Press, 2010:116
-124.]
[2] 鞠远江, 刘耕年, 张晓咏, 等. 山地冰川物质平衡线与气候[J]. 地理科学进展, 2004, 23(3):43-49.
[JU Yuanjang, LIU Gengnian, ZHANG Xiaoyong, et al. High mountain glaciers' ELA0 and climate[J]. Progress in Geography, 2004, 23(3):43-49.]
[3] Ohmura A, Kaser P, Funk M. Climate at the equilibrium line of glaciers[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 1992, 38:397-411.
[4] Hoinkes H C. Glacier variation and weather[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 1968, 7:3-18.
[5] Kuhn M. Climate and glaicers[Z]. IAHS Publ., 1979:3-20.
[6] 张金华, 王晓军, 李军. 天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川物质平衡变化与气候相互关系的研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 1984, 6(4):25-36.
[ZHANG Jinhua, WANG Xiaojun, LI Jun. Study on relationship between mass balance changes of Glacier No.1 at the headwater of Urumqi River, Tianshan and climate[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1984, 6(4):25-36.]
[7] 张祥松, 孙作哲, 张金华, 等. 天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川的变化及其与气候变化的若干关系[J]. 冰川冻土, 1984, 6(4):1-12.
[ZHANG Xiangsong, SUN Zuozhe, ZHANG Jinhua et al. Some relationships of the fluctuation of Glacier NO.1 with climatic change at the source of Urumqi River, Tianshan[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1984, 6(4):1-12.]
[8] 白重瑗. 冰川与气候关系的研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 1989, 11(4):287-297.
[BAI Chongyuan. A study of relationship between climate and mountain glaciers[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1989, 11(4):287-297.]
[9] 张寅生, 姚檀栋, 蒲健辰. 我国大陆型山地冰川对气候变化的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 1998, 20(1):3-8.
[ZHANG Yinsheng, YAO Tandong, PU Jianchen. The response of continental-type glaciers to climate change in China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1998, 20(1):3-8.]
[10] Pu J C, Yao T D, Yang M X, et al. Rapid decrease of mass balance observed in the Xiao (Lesser) Dongkemadi Glacier, in the central Tibetan Plateau[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2008, 22:2953-2958.
[11] 张威, 闫玲, 崔之久, 等. 长白山现代理论雪线和古雪线高度[J]. 第四纪研究, 2008, 28(4):739-745.
[ZHANG Wei, YAN Ling, CUI Zhijiu, et al. Present and Late Pleistocene equilibrium line altitudes in Changbai Shan, Northeast China[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 2008, 28(4):739-745.]
[12] Bowerman N D, Clark D H. Holocene glaciations of the central Sierra Nevada, California[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2011, 30:1067-1085.
[13] Bendle J M, Glasser N F. Palaeoclimatic reconstruction from Lateglacial(Younger Dryas Chronozone) cirque glaciers in Snowdonia, North Wales[J]. Proceedings of the Geologists' Association, 2012, 123:130-145.
[14] 施雅风, 崔之久, 苏珍. 中国第四纪冰川与环境变化[M]. 河北:河北科学技术出版社, 2006:65-115.[SHI Yafeng, CUI Zhijiu, SU Zhen. The Quaternary Glaciations and Environmental Variations in China[M]. Hebei:Hebei Science and Technology Publishing House, 2006:65
-115.]
[15] 赖祖铭, 黄茂桓. 我国冰川的模糊聚类分析[J]. 科学通报, 1988, 33(16):1250-1253.
[LAI Zuming, HUANG Maohuan. Glacier in China with fuzzy clustering analysis[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 1988, 33(16):1250-1253.]
[16] Zhou Shangzhe, Wang Jie, Xu Liubing et al. Glacial advances in southeastern Tibet during late Quaternary and their implications for climatic changes[J]. Quaternary International, 2010, 218:58-66.
[17] 施雅风, 黄茂桓, 任炳辉. 中国冰川概论[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 1988:11-28.[SHI Yafeng, HUANG Maohuan, REN Binghui. An Introduction to the Glaciers in China[M]. Beijing:Since Press, 1988:11
-28.]
[18] Ramage J M, Smith J A, Rodbell D T, et al. Comparing reconstructed Pleistocene equilibrium-line altitudes in the tropical Andes of central Peru[J]. Journal of Quaternary Science, 2005, 20:777-778.
[19] Carr S, Coleman C. An improved technique for the reconstruction of former glacier mass-balance and dynamics[J]. Geomorphology, 2007, 92:76-90.
[20] Seltzer G O. Climatic interpretation of Alpine snowline variations on Millennial time scales[J]. Quaternary Research, 1994, 41:154-159.
[21] Porter S T. Present and past glaciations threshold in the Cascade Range, Washington, U.S.A.:topographic and climatic controls, and paleoclimatic implications[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 1977, 18:101-116.
[22] Miller G H, de Vernal A. Will greenhouse warming lead to Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet growth?[J]. Nature, 1992, 355:244-246.
[23] Gillespie A R, Burke R M, Komatsu G, et al. Late Pleistocene glaciers in Darhad Basin, northern Mongolia[J]. Quaternary Research, 2008, 69:169-187.
[24] Braithwaite R J. On glacier energy balance, ablation, and air temperature[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 1981, 27:381-391.
[25] Braithwaite R J, Konzelmann T, Marty C, et al. Errors in daily ablation measurements in northern Greenland, 1993-94, and their implications for glacier climate studies[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 1998, 44:583-588.
[26] Braithwaite R J, Zhang Yu. Modelling changes in glacier mass balance that may occur as a result of climate changes[J]. Geografiska Annaler, 1999, 81:489-496.
[27] 刘时银, 丁永健, 王宁练, 等. 天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川物质平衡对气候变化的敏感性研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 1998, 20(1):9-13.
[LIU Shiyin, DING Yongjian, WANG Ninglian, et al. Mass balance sensitivity to climate change of the Glacier No.1 at the Urumqi River Head, Tianshan Mts[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1998, 20(1):9-13.]
[28] Laumann T, Reeh N. Sensitivity to climate change of the mass balance of glaciers in southern Norway[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 1993, 39:656-665.
[29] Braithwaite R J. Positive degree-day factors for ablation on the Greenland ice sheet studied by energy-balance modelling[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 1995, 41:153-160.
[30] Heyman B M, Heyman J, Fickert T, et al. Paleo-climate of the central European uplands during the last glacial maximum based on glacier mass-balance modeling[J]. Quaternary Research, 2013, 79:49-54.
[31] Peyron O, Guiot J, Cheddadi R, et al. Climatic reconstruction in Europe for 18000 yr B.P. pollen data[J]. Quaternary Research, 1998, 49:183-196.
[32] Hock R. Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2003, 282:104-115.
[33] 张勇, 刘时银. 度日模型在冰川与积雪研究中的应用进展[J]. 冰川冻土, 2006, 28(1):101-107.
[ZHANG Yong, LIU Shiyin. Progress of the application of Degree-day model to study glaciers and snow cover[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2006, 28(1):101-107.]
[34] Sato A, Takahashi S, Naruse R, et al. Abaltion and heat balance of the Yukikabe Snow Patch in the Daisetsu Mountains, Hokkaido, Japan[J]. Annals of Glaciology, 1984, 5:122-126.
[35] Ohmura A. Physical basis for the temperature-based melt-index method[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2001, 40:753-761.
[36] 卿文武, 陈仁升, 刘时银. 冰川水文模型研究进展[J]. 水科学进展, 19(6):893-902.[QING Wenwu, CHEN Rensheng, LIU Shiyin. Progress in study of glacier hydrological model[J]. Advances in Water Science, 19
(6):893-902.]
[37] Kayastha R B, Ohata T, Ageta Y. Application of a mass-balance model to a Himalayan glacier[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 1999, 45:559-567.
[38] Molg T, Hardy D R. Ablation and associate energy balance of a horizontal glacier surface on Kilimanjaro[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2004, 109:1-13.
[39] Zhang Yinsheng, Koji F, Ageta Y, et al. The response of glacier ELA to climate fluctuations on High-Asia[J]. Bulletin of Glacier Research, 1998, 16:1-11.
[40] Rupper S, Roe G. Glacier changes and regional climate:a mass and energy balance approach[J]. Journal of Climate, 2008, 21:5384-5401.
[41] Rupper S, Roe G, Gillespie A. Spatial patterns of Holocene glacier advance and retreat in Central Asia[J]. Quaternary Research, 2009, 72:337-346.
[42] 施雅风, 黄茂桓, 姚檀栋, 等. 中国现代冰川与环境-现在、过去和未来[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2000:79-100.[SHI Yafeng, HUANG Maohuan, YAO Tandong, et al. Glaciers and Their Environments in China-the Present, Past and Future[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2000:79
-100.]
[43] Kane D L, Gieck M ASCE R E, Hinzman L D. Snowmelt modeling at small Alaskan Arctic watershed[J]. Journary of Hydrologic Engineering, 1997, 2:204-210.
[44] Kaser G, Osmaston H A. Tropical Glaciers[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2002:149-192.
[45] Paterson W S B. The Physics of Glaciers (3rd Edition)[M]. Oxford, UK:Pergarnon Press, 1994:53-77.
[46] Braithwaite R J, Olesen O L. Response of the energy balance on the margin of the Greenland ice sheet to temperature changes[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 1990, 36:217-221.
[47] Ambach W. Climatic shift of the equilibrium line concept applied to the Greenland ice cap[J]. Annals of Glaciology, 1985, 6:76-78.
[48] Berger A L. Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from the Earth's orbital elements[J]. Quaternary Research, 1978, 9:139-167.
[49] Hastenrath S L. On the Pleistocene snow-line depression in the arid regions of the south American Andes[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 1971, 10:255-267.
[50] Leonard E M. Climatic change in the Colorado Rocky Mountains:estimates based on modern climate at Late Pleistocene equilibrium lines[J]. Arctic and Alpine Research, 1989, 21:245-255.
[51] 张寅生, 姚檀栋, 蒲健辰. 我国大陆型冰川消融特征分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 1996, 18(2):147-154.
[ZHANG Yinsheng, YAO Tandong, PU Jianchen. The characteristics of ablation on continental-type glaciers in china[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1996, 18(2):147-154.]
-
计量
- 文章访问数: 1190
- PDF下载数: 2
- 施引文献: 0
下载: