MULTI-SCALE ANALYSIS OF THE LONG-TERM TREND OF THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES IN THE UPPER REACH OF THE HEIHE RIVER, NORTHWEST CHINA
-
摘要: 选取黑河上游祁连、肃南、托勒和野牛沟4气象站(1959-2009年)和莺落峡及札马什克两水文站(1978-2007年)数据,应用Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验法对月、季和年3种不同时间尺度的黑河上游气温、降水及径流进行变化趋势显著性检验,并在此基础上分析了气候变化背景下气温和降水对出山径流的影响。结果表明:年尺度上,黑河上游水文气象变量均呈上升趋势。其中,祁连和托勒年平均气温显著上升;季节尺度上,黑河上游气温、降水和出山径流均呈上升趋势。秋冬季气温比春夏季气温上升更明显,降水增加主要表现在夏季。月尺度上,除肃南10月份气温呈下降趋势外,其余均表现为上升趋势。降水在1、5-10和12月表现为增加趋势,在2-4和11月呈减少趋势。莺落峡水文站径流全年呈增加趋势,而札马什克水文站在4-11月径流呈增加趋势,其余月份表现为减少趋势。黑河上游秋冬季温度升高和夏季降水增加对增加出山径流量具有重要作用。
-
关键词:
- 水文气象变量 /
- Mann-Kendall趋势检验 /
- 多时间尺度 /
- 黑河上游
Abstract: This paper analyzed the long-term trend of the hydrometeorological variables including air temperature, precipitation (for the period of 1959-2009)and discharges (for the period of 1978-2007) at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales in the Upper Reach of the Heihe River Watershed, Northwest China, using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test. The effects of air temperature and precipitation on the discharges were also examined in the study watershed. The results indicate that the hydrometeorological variables had all increased at the annual scale during the study period, and annual mean temperatures in the Sunan and Tuole Weather Stations significantly increased. The seasonal mean temperatures, precipitation and discharges had also shown an increased trend, with a larger rise of the mean temperatures in autumn and winter than those in spring and summer. The increase in seasonal mean precipitation mainly occurred in summer. At the monthly scale, the monthly mean temperatures had increased at all four weather stations except at the Sunan Weather Station in October. The monthly mean precipitation displayed a mixed pattern during the study period, showing an increasing trend during the months of January, May through October, and December, and a decreasing trend during the other months. The monthly mean discharges showed an increasing pattern throughout the year at the Yingluoxia Gauge Station (located at the outlet of the Upper Reach of the Heihe Watershed) while the monthly discharges at the Zamashike Gauge Station (located in the upstream of the Upper Reach) exhibited increasing trend during the months of April through November. The increased mean temperatures in autumn and winter and the rising mean precipitation in summer contributed to the increasing mean discharges significantly. -
[1] Vorosmarty C J, Green P, Salisbury J, et al. Global water resources:vulnerability from climate change and population growth[J].Science,2000, 289:284-288.
[2] Labat D, Goddéris Y, Probst J L, et al. Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming[J]. Advances in Water Resources,2004, 27(6):631-642.
[3] Hejazi M I, Moglen G E. Regression-based approach to low flow prediction in the Maryland Piedmont region under joint climate and land use change[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2007, 21:1793-1801.
[4] Fraiture C D. Integrated water and food analysis at the global and basin level:An application of WATERSIM[J]. Water Resources Management, 2007, 21:185-198.
[5] 康尔泗, 程国栋, 董增川. 中国西北干旱区冰雪水资源与出山径流[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.[KANG Ersi, CHENG Guodong, DONG Zengchuan.Glacier-Snow Water Resources and Mountain Runoff in the Arid Area of Northwest China[M].Beijing:Science Press,2002.]
[6] Fu G B, Barber M E, Chen S L. The impacts of climate change on regional hydrological regimes in the Spokane River watershed[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2007, 12:452-461.
[7] 李栋梁, 冯建英, 陈雷,等. 黑河流量和祁连山气候年代际变化[J].高原气象,2003, 22(2):104-110.
[LI Dongliang, FENG Jianying, CHEN Lei, et al. Study on interdecadal change of Heihe runoff and Qilian mountain's climate[J].Plautea Meteorology,2003,22(2):104-110.]
[8] 王录仓,张晓玉.黑河流域近期气候变化对水资源的影响分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(4):60-65.
[WANG Lucang, ZHANG Xiaoyu. Effect of the recent climate change on water resource in Heihe river basin[J].Arid Land Resources and Environment,2010, 24(4):60-65.]
[9] 蓝永超, 康尔泗,仵彦卿,等.气候变化对河西内陆干旱区出山径流的影响[J].冰川冻土,2001,23(3):276-282.
[LAN Yongchao, KANG Ersi, WU Yanqing, et al. Study on the influence of climate change to the runoff from mountain areas in the Hexi region[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2001,23(3):276-282.]
[10] Wang Jian, Li Shuo. Effect of climatic change on snowmelt runoffs in mountainous regions of inland rivers in Northwestern China[J].Science in China (series D):Earth Science,2006,49(8):881-888.
[11] Lan Yongchao, Xiao Honglang, Hu Xiaolin et al. Study of temperature and precipitation change in upstream mountain area of the Hexi inland river basin since 1960s[J]. Science in Cold and Arid Regions, 2012,4(6):522-535.
[12] 王钧, 蒙吉军.黑河流域近60年来净流量变化及影响因素[J].地理科学,2008,28(1):83-88.
[WANG Jun, MENG Jijun. Characteristics and tendencies of annual runoff variation in the Heihe River Basin during past 60 years[J]. Scientia geographical Sinica,2008,28(1):83-88.]
[13] 杨明金,张勃.黑河莺落峡站径流变化的影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学进展,2010,29(2):166-172.
[YANG Mingjin, ZHANG Bo. The study on affecting factors of runoff change at Yingluoxia station of Heihe River[J].Process in Geography, 2010,29(2):166-172.]
[14] Watson R, Zinyowera M et al. Impacts,adaptation and mitigation of climate change:scienticfic-technical analyses. Climate change[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1995:248-249.
[15] 仵彦卿, 张应华, 温小虎,等.中国西北黑河流域水文循环与水资源模拟[M].北京:科学出版社,2010:8-11.[WU Yanqing, ZHANG Yinghua, WEN Xiaohu, et al. Hydrologic Cycle and Water Resource Modeling for the Heihe River Basin in Northwestern China[M].Beijing:Science Press,2010:8
-11.]
[16] 党素珍,王中根,刘昌明.黑河上游地区基流分割及其变化特征分析[J].资源科学,2011, 33(12):2232-2237.
[DANG Suzhen, WANG Zhonggen, LIU Changming. Baseflow separation and its characteristics in the upper reaches of the Heihe river basin[J].Resources Science,2011,33(12):2232-2237.]
[17] David Berryman, Bernard Bobee, Daniel Cluis, et al. Nonparametric tests for trend detection in water quality time series[J]. Water Resources Bulletin, 1988, 24(3):545-556.
[18] Thian Yew Gan. Hydroclimatic trend and possible climatic warming in the Canadian Prairies[J].Water Resources Research,1998,34(11):3009-3015.
[19] 张建云,王国庆. 气候变化对水文水资源影响研究[M].北京;科学出版社,2007:18-20.[ZHANG Jianyun, WANG Guoqing. Study on the Effect of Climate Change on the Water Cycle amd Water Resource[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2007:18
-20.]
[20] Chen Y N, Xu C C, Hao X M, et al. fifty-year climate change and its effect on annual runoff in the Tarim River Basin,China[J].Quaternary International, 2009:53-61.
[21] Xu Z X, Liu Z F, Fu G B, et al. Trends of major hydroclimatic variables in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50 years[J]. Journal of Arid Environments, 2010:256-267.
[22] Yang Y H, Tian F. Abrupt change of runoff and its major driving factors in Haihe River Catchment,China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2009,374:373-383.
[23] Modarres R, Silva V P R. Rainfall trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran[J]. Journal of Arid Environment, 2007,70:344-355.
[24] Chen Y N, Li, W H, Xu C C, Hao X M. Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim river basin[J]. Journal of Environmental Sciences,2007, 19:488-493.
[25] Lins H F, Slack J R. Streamflow trends in the United States[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,1999, 26(2):227-230.
[26] Pilon P J, Yue S. Detecting climate-related trends in streamflow data[J]. Water Science and Technology,2002,45(8):89-104.
[27] Douglas E M, Vogel R M, Knoll C N. Trends in flood and low flows in the United States:impact of spatial correlation[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2000, 240:90-105.
[28] Lettenmaier D P, Wood E F, Wallis J R. Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States:1948-1988[J]. Journal of Climate,1994, 7:586-607.
[29] Belle V G, Hughes J P. Nonparametric tests for trend in water quality[J]. Water Resources Research,1984, 20(1):127-136.
[30] Chiew F H S, McMahon T A. Detection of trend or change in annual flow of Australian rivers[J]. International Journal of Climatology,1993, 13:643-653.
[31] Burn D H. Hydrologic effects of climatic change in West Central Canada[J]. Journal of Hydrology,1994, 160:53-70.
[32] World Meteorological Organisation. Analysing Long Time Series of Hydrological Data with Respect to Climate Variability[M]. Geneva,Switzerland:Tech. Rep. WCAP-3, 1988.
[33] Mann H B. Non-parametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13:245-259.
[34] Hirsch R M, Slack J R, Smith R A, Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data[J]. Water Resources Research, 1982,18(1):107-121.
[35] IPCC. Climate change 2007-Impacts, Adaptation and vulnerability[M]. Cambrige:Cambrige University Press,2007.
计量
- 文章访问数: 898
- PDF下载数: 2
- 施引文献: 0