Research on the evaluation of the carrying capacity of geological environment based on its risk level
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摘要:
资源环境承载力是国民经济和社会发展规划中必须考虑的基本要素之一。科学地量化评估资源环境承载力已成为多个领域交叉研究的前沿课题，资源环境承载力的概念、评价原理、评价方法、评判标准等基本问题尚有待深入研究。通过引入风险管理的理念，基于风险理论、国土空间三生功能理论、地质环境理论、边际分析理论等交叉融合，开展基于风险的地质环境承载力理论与技术方法探讨。以人类活动带来的生命、财产和健康风险是否可接受及接受程度为切入点和判别标准，提出基于风险的地质环境容许承载力和极限承载力概念，将承载力状态判别为安全承载、容许超载和不可接受超载3个等级，发展地质环境承载力理论。构建地质环境承载力评价流程和评价技术方法，包括确定研究范围、识别地质环境问题、基于生命风险、财产风险和健康风险分析的地质环境承载力单因素评价、承载力综合评价等。探索确定地质环境承载力评价阈值。为地质环境承载力评价提供新的理论与关键技术，为国土空间开发"三条红线"划定提供依据。
Abstract:The carrying capacity of resources and environment is a key element which needs to be considered in economic and social development planning. Quantitative assessment of it has become one of the frontiers of earth science research. The concept, principle, method and criteria of carrying capacity assessment need to be explored further. In this paper, the authors established a new theory and some key techniques to assess the carrying capacity of geological environment, using multi-disciplinary approaches based on risk theory, functional theories of production-life-ecology, geological environmental theory, marginal theory and some other means. On the basis of the risk theory and with the prerequisite that if the life, property and health risk which originate from human activities such as producing and livelihood can be accepted as an entry point and link, the authors proposed the concept of allowable and ultimate carrying capacity, and classified the status of carrying capacity into three levels:safely carrying, allowable over-carrying and unacceptable over-carrying. Risk-based evaluation of the geological environment carrying capacity generally includes four steps:determination of the scope of the research; identification of the environmental geological problems; evaluation of the individual factors related to life, property and health risks; integrating the individual factor evaluations into a comprehensive evaluation of the current and predicted carrying capacities. This approach can support the decision making on identifying the "three red lines" of national terrestrial development.
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