地震灾害预测基本思维模式探讨

马润勇; 彭建兵; 王家鼎; 潘爱芳

地震灾害预测基本思维模式探讨

1.
长安大学地质工程与测绘学院, 陕西西安 710054

2.
西北大学地质学系, 陕西西安 710069

3.
西北大学地质学系, 陕西西安 710069;西安建筑科技大学理学院, 陕西西安 710055

基金项目: 陕西省自然科学基金重点项目资助(2001D05)

收稿日期: 2003-02-18

修回日期: 2003-06-12

刊出日期: 2003-06-15

Discussion on the model of basic thinking in the earthquake prediction

1.
College of Geological Engineering and Geometry, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710054, China

2.
Geology Department of Northwest University, Xi'an 710069, China

3.
Geology Department of Northwest University, Xi'an 710069, China;Institute of Sciences, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology Xi'an 710055, China

Received Date: 18 February 2003

Revised Date: 12 June 2003

Publish Date: 15 June 2003

摘要

摘要: 地震灾害能否预测,如何实现有效预测,作者认为:地震作为一种自然界的客观存在,它的孕育、发生和发展过程必然遵循着一定规律。如果认识掌握了这一规律,就可以实现预测。加强震源研究是实现地震灾害预测的基础。提高预测效果的良好途径是预测期尺度与预测方法相对应。
- 地震预测 /
- 震源研究 /
- 预测期尺度 /
- 预测方法
Abstract: Whether the earthquake hazard can be predicted or not, and how are we to achieve efficacious prediction.In this paper, The author thinks that earthquake is a objective reality of nature world and the developing process of seismology, occurrence has inevitably a regularity.If its regularity is recognized and mastered, the prediction would be achieved.Strengthening research on seismic source is the basis to achieve earthquake hazard prediction.Correspondence between yardstick of prediction term and prediction method is good way to improve prediction effect.
- earthquake prediction /
- seismic focus research /
- yardstick of prediction term /
- prediction method

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