四川虹口黑泥湾滑坡风险性评估
Risk Assessment of the Heiniwan Landslide in Hongkou County, Sichuan Province
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摘要: 黑泥湾滑坡是降雨诱发的一个土-岩接触面大型滑坡。基于野外详细调查基础上，探讨了黑泥湾滑坡的成灾模式，并利用水平投影法对滑坡多级潜在滑面进行了稳定性分析；在10年一遇降雨、50年一遇降雨及100年一遇降雨3种工况下，对黑泥湾滑坡开展了风险性评估、风险区划及社会风险评价。结果表明，黑泥湾滑坡财产最大风险为111.666万元/a，人口最大风险为0.002 23人/a；同时区划结果显示①、②、③号受险区的单人生命风险最大，具有大于10-3的生命风险，其人口社会风险值已经处于不可接受风险区，应采取加强监测、搬迁避让、适当工程治理等方法进行风险控制，以达到防灾减灾的目的。Abstract: Based on stability calculations of multistage potential sliding surface of Heiniwan landslide which caused by heavy rain in July 2013, risk assessment, risk zoning, and the evaluation of the social risk were respectively completed under three different conditions in this paper, namely heaviest rainfall in ten years, in fifty years and in a hundred years. After the superposition of single life risk, the risk map was finished. With the connection of the landslide social risk, the social risk of Heiniwan landslide was evaluated. The maximum property risk is 1,116,660 RMB per year, while the maximum population at risk is 0.00223 a person per year. At the same time, division results show that danger zone ①, ②, ③have the greatest single life at risk, which is more than 10-3 life at risk; compared to international risk tolerance standard (F-N curve), the social risk value cannot be accepted. Therefore, it is necessary for local governments to strengthen such work as monitoring, relocation of local inhabitants and appropriate engineering control to avoid the risk.
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Key words:
- landslide /
- stability /
- vulnerability /
- risk assessment /
- risk value
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