Analysis of land use changes and their driving force in "Two Lakes and One Reservoir" area of central Guizhou Province based on the concepts of "Source and Sink"
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摘要:
“两湖一库”是典型的喀斯特高原湖泊，湖库周边生态环境极为脆弱，其土地利用变化对所在区域生态安全/供水安全及社会经济发展带来重要影响。基于“源－汇”理念和黔中“两湖一库”地区1998－2018年4期遥感解译数据，采用土地利用动态度模型分析近20年来“两湖一库”地区土地利用动态演变规律，并运用定量与定性分析相结合的方法探究其驱动力。结果表明：（1）1998－2018年建设用地、林地、未利用土地（主要为暂时性未利用土地）面积不断增加，水域面积波动减少，耕地、草地面积持续减少，其中建设用地和未利用土地在各时段均为变化最活跃的地类。（2）年均综合土地利用动态度由1998－2008年的1.33%提高至2008－2013年的2.4%和2013－2018年的2.3%。近10年各地类间的相互转换较10年前更为活跃。（3）主要的土地利用“源－汇”转换关系表现为耕地转为林地和建设用地、草地转为林地和耕地。（4）各地类加速向建设用地转换，建成区面积迅速扩张，“两湖一库”供水压力进一步增大。（5）人口压力、经济发展等因素是“两湖一库”地区建设用地扩张的主要驱动因素，政策因素对林地和水域面积变化有重要影响。研究结果可以为“两湖一库”地区土地利用、规划及社会－经济－生态协调发展提供参考。
Abstract:"Two Lakes and One Reservoir", the main drinking water source of Guiyang City and even the urban agglomeration in central Guizhou, are typical karst plateau lakes. But the ecological environment around the lakes and reservoir is extremely fragile, where human activities are intense; urbanization is expanding rapidly; and land use changes are significant. Therefore, the land use changes have an important impact on the regional ecological security/water supply security and social and economic development. Based on the concepts of "source and sink" and the 4-phase interpretation data of remote sensing in "Two Lakes and One Reservoir" area in central Guizhou Province from 1998 to 2018, the dynamic model of land use was used to analyze the dynamic evolution law of land use in the study area in the past 20 years. Besides, quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis were combined to explore the driving force of land use changes.
Results show that, (1) From 1998 to 2018, forest land and arable land were always the most important types of land use in the "Two Lakes and One Reservoir" area, with their respective proportions exceeding 35% in each period. (2) During the study period, the areas of construction land, forest land and unused land (mainly temporary unused land) increased continuously; the fluctuation of water area decreased; and the areas of arable land and grassland decreased continuously, among which changes of construction land and unused land presented most actively in each period. (3) The annual average dynamic degree of comprehensive land use in the study area increased repectively from 1.33% in 1998-2008 to 2.4% in 2008-2013 and 2.3% in 2013-2018. In the past 10 years, under the background of accelerated regional industrialization, urbanization and agricultural and rural modernization, the mutual conversion between various categories of land use has been more frequent than 10 years ago. (4) From 1998 to 2018, the main "source and sink" conversion relationships of land use in the study area were shown as the conversion of arable land into forest land and construction land, and grassland into forest land and arable land. Arable land was the main "source" of construction land increase; forest land was the main "sink" of arable land; and arable land and forest land were the main "sink" of grassland. (5) The "source and sink" coefficients of variation of mutual conversion among different categories are quite different, among which the "source" coefficient of variation of unused land converted to grassland is the largest (110.14%), and the annual average conversion is the most unstable. The "source"coefficient of variation of grassland converted to arable land is the smallest (19.84%), and grassland is the most stable source of farmland. (6) The conversion from various types of land into construction land has been accelerated; the area of the built-up area has expanded rapidly; and the water supply pressure of "Two Lakes and One Reservoir" has further increased. Population pressure and economic development are the main driving factors for the expansion of construction land in the study area. Policy factors such as Returning Farmland to Forest Program and the establishment of the "Two Lakes and One Reservoir"Administration Bureau have an important impact on the change of forest land and water area. In the future, it is necessary for us to focus on and solve the contradiction between the rapid urban expansion and the protection of arable land and water sources in the "Two Lakes and One Reservoir"area. The research results can provide a reference for the land use planning and social-economic-ecological coordinated development in the "Two Lakes and One Reservoir" area.
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表 1 1998－2018年“两湖一库”地区土地利用变化情况
Table 1. Land use change in "Two Lakes and One Reservoir" area from 1998 to 2018
土地利用类型 各时期面积变化/km2 年均单一土地利用动态度/% 1998 2008 2013 2018 1998－2008年 2008－2013年 2013－2018年 建设用地 105.10 239.90 380.17 550.83 12.83 11.69 8.98 林地 1 437.37 1 465.50 1 516.65 1 518.09 0.20 0.70 0.02 水域 77.76 63.59 62.57 66.80 −1.82 −0.32 1.35 耕地 1 900.04 1 849.50 1 800.96 1 622.47 −0.27 −0.52 −1.98 草地 417.29 309.53 154.58 132.26 −2.58 −10.01 −2.89 未利用土地 9.50 18.80 32.20 56.28 9.79 14.26 14.96 综合土地利用动态度/% − − − − 1.33 2.40 2.30 
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表 2 1998-2018年“两湖一库”地区土地利用转移矩阵/km2
Table 2. Transfer matrix of land use in "Two Lakes and One Reservoir" area from 1998 to 2018 /km2
2008年 1998年 建设用地 林地 水域 耕地 草地 未利用土地 建设用地 88.75 18.54 14.07 105.40 11.78 1.25 林地 0.84 1 138.62 2.64 164.97 158.09 0.27 水域 0.31 3.14 56.24 2.45 1.29 0.00 耕地 13.48 151.85 4.32 1 520.17 153.69 5.85 草地 0.36 121.81 0.36 95.34 91.43 0.16 未利用土地 1.37 3.00 0.07 11.54 0.85 1.96 2013年 2008年 建设用地 林地 水域 耕地 草地 未利用土地 建设用地 176.10 18.68 5.14 159.50 8.59 12.10 林地 10.51 1 222.10 0.66 166.50 116.27 0.24 水域 5.88 1.31 54.73 0.41 0.12 0.03 耕地 45.29 166.74 2.73 1 466.78 115.34 3.81 草地 0.79 52.76 0.20 33.52 67.17 0.10 未利用土地 0.86 3.04 0.22 18.25 1.30 2.44 2018年 2013年 建设用地 林地 水域 耕地 草地 未利用土地 建设用地 329.33 27.87 4.26 168.62 2.85 17.81 林地 9.24 1 274.02 0.63 198.17 35.52 0.33 水域 4.03 2.25 57.41 2.84 0.18 0.05 耕地 24.09 179.86 0.16 1 334.05 78.05 6.11 草地 5.18 27.23 0.04 62.57 36.16 1.04 未利用土地 8.23 5.06 0.02 34.40 1.72 6.84
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表 3 1998－2018年“两湖一库”地区建设用地“源”变异系数
Table 3. Variation coefficient of "source" of construction land in "Two Lakes and One Reservoir" area from 1998 to 2018
地类转换 时段 年均转出
量/km2各地类年均转为建设
用地总量/km2贡献率
/%“源”变异
系数/%林地→建设用地 1998－2008 1.85 15.10 12.27 40.81 2008－2013 3.74 40.80 9.16 2013－2018 5.57 44.28 12.59 水域→建设用地 1998－2008 1.41 15.10 9.32 21.14 2008－2013 1.03 40.80 2.52 2013－2018 0.85 44.28 1.92 耕地→建设用地 1998－2008 10.54 15.10 69.78 41.46 2008－2013 31.90 40.80 78.18 2013－2018 33.72 44.28 76.16 草地→建设用地 1998－2008 1.18 15.10 7.80 40.59 2008－2013 1.72 40.80 4.21 2013－2018 0.57 44.28 1.29 未利用土地→
建设用地1998－2008 0.13 15.10 0.83 70.21 2008－2013 2.42 40.80 5.93 2013－2018 3.56 44.28 8.04
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表 4 1998－2018年“两湖一库”地区各地类“源”变异系数矩阵/%
Table 4. Coefficient of variation matrix of each type of "source" in "Two Lakes and One Reservoir" area from 1998 to 2018/%
“源”地类 “汇”地类 建设用地 林地 水域 耕地 草地 未利用土地 建设用地 0.00 66.74 71.10 62.13 108.64 107.91 林地 40.81 0.00 23.18 32.81 30.54 47.25 水域 21.14 36.60 0.00 65.47 50.84 99.22 耕地 41.46 32.75 67.70 0.00 24.75 60.19 草地 40.59 42.89 74.48 19.84 0.00 46.98 未利用土地 70.21 33.91 77.06 31.35 110.14 0.00
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表 5 1998－2018年“两湖一库”地区各地类“汇”变异系数
Table 5. Coefficient of variation of each type of "sink" in "Two Lakes and One Reservoir" area from 1998 to 2018
地类转换 时段 各地类年均转入某地类总量/km2 年均转入总量/km2 贡献率/% “汇”变异系数/% 各地类→建设用地 1998－2008 15.10 104.91 14.40 38.96 2008－2013 40.80 190.18 21.45 2013－2018 44.28 181.68 24.37 各地类→林地 1998－2008 32.68 104.91 31.15 23.03 2008－2013 58.84 190.18 30.94 2013－2018 48.78 181.68 26.85 各地类→水域 1998－2008 0.72 104.91 0.69 35.16 2008－2013 1.55 190.18 0.82 2013－2018 1.87 181.68 1.03 各地类→耕地 1998－2008 32.92 104.91 31.38 27.27 2008－2013 66.78 190.18 35.12 2013－2018 57.65 181.68 31.73 各地类→草地 1998－2008 21.80 104.91 20.78 9.12 2008－2013 17.47 190.18 9.19 2013－2018 19.21 181.68 10.57 各地类→未利用
土地1998－2008 1.68 104.91 1.60 62.29 2008－2013 4.73 190.18 2.49 2013－2018 9.89 181.68 5.44
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表 6 建设用地变化影响因素相关分析结果
Table 6. Correlation analysis of influencing factors of construction land change
变量 r P 非农产业比重 0.865 0.135 城镇化率 0.944* 0.056 人均固定资产投资 0.943* 0.057 人口自然增长率 0.254 0.746 人口密度 0.963** 0.037 人均GDP 0.978** 0.022 贵安新区成立 0.809 0.191 注：*、**、***分别代表在10%、5%、1%水平下显著。
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