Spatio−temporal evolution of land use and human activity intensity in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang
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摘要:
研究目的 人类活动引起的土地利用/覆被变化是全球环境变化的重要组成部分，旱区土地利用对区域水文和生态的影响尤为显著，探究土地利用变化及其对人类活动的响应对西北干旱内陆生态与资源环境可持续发展具有重要意义。
研究方法 基于1980—2018年间共5期遥感影像，结合土地利用动态度、土地利用转移矩阵和人类活动强度指数分析塔里木河流域各水资源分区土地利用变化特征。
研究结果 近40年中，塔里木河流域耕地、建设用地和林地面积分别增加1.58×104 km2、1.2×103 km2和347 km2，而草地、未利用地和水域面积分别减少1.33×104 km2、0.32×104 km2和815 km2。各水资源分区中塔里木河干流土地利用类型变化最大，其次为渭干河、阿克苏河和喀什噶尔河流域。自2000年以来，塔里木河流域建设用地当量面积和人类活动强度增加相对较快，特别是2000—2010年间呈显著增长趋势。
结论 塔里木河流域各水资源分区的人类活动强度呈显著的空间差异性。社会经济发展和政策的导向性作用是塔里木河流域土地利用变化和人类活动强度的主要影响因素。
Abstract:This paper is the result of hydrogeological survey engineering.
Objective Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) caused by human activities is a critical part of global environmental change. LUCC in arid regions has a particularly significant impact on regional hydrology and ecology. Therefore, exploring LUCC and its response to human activities is of great significance to the sustainable development of ecology, resources and environment in the arid inland of Northwest China.
Methods Based on the Landsat images during 1980 to 2018, this paper analyzes the characteristics of land use change in nine divisions of water resources of Tarim River Basin, by the combination of land use dynamic degree, land use transfer matrix and human activity intensity degree.
Results In the past 40 years, cropland, constructive land and forest increased by 1.58×104 km2, 1.2×103 km2 and 347 km2, respectively. By comparison, grassland, unutilized land, water and wetland decreased by 1.33×104 km2, 0.32×104 km2 and 815 km2, respectively. The main stream of Tarim River Basin has experienced the most significant change in land use types among nine divisions of water resources, followed by Weigan, Aksu and Kashgar river basin. Since 2000, the equivalent area of constructive land and human activity intensity in Tarim River Basin has increased relatively fast, especially from 2000 to 2010.
Conclusions Human activity intensity has showed significant spatial difference among division of water resources. Socio-economic development and policy guidance are major factors leading to land use change and human activity intensity difference.
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表 1 塔里木河流域土地利用/土地覆被分类方案
Table 1. Classification scheme of LUCC in the Tarim River Basin
序号 类别 土地利用类型及范围 1 耕地 指种植农作物的土地，包括旱田和水浇地 2 林地 指经济林、防护林及各类园地等，包括有林地、灌木林、疏木林和其他林地 3 草地 指以草本植物为主，覆盖度在5%以上的各类草地，包括高/中/低覆盖度草地 4 水域 包括河渠、湖泊、水库坑塘、滩地和永久性冰川雪地等 5 建设用地 包括城镇用地、农村居民点和其它建设用地 6 未利用地 包括沙地、戈壁、盐碱地、沼泽地、裸土地、裸岩和其他未利用地等 
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表 2 土地利用转移矩阵
Table 2. Transfer matrix of land use and cover types
项目 T2 T2年总计 A1 A2 ··· An T1 A1 S11 S12 ··· S1n S11+···+ S1n A2 S21 S22 ··· S2n S21+···+ S2n ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· An Sn1 Sn2 ··· Snn Sn1+···+ Snn T1年总计 S11+···+ Sn1 S12+···+ Sn2 ··· ···
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表 3 不同土地利用类型的建设用地当量折算系数
Table 3. Conversion index of construction land equivalent of different land use and cover types
序号 土地利用类型 二级土地利用类型 折算系数 1 耕地 水田/旱田 0.2 2 林地 有林地/灌木林/疏林地 0 其他林地 0.2 3 草地 高/中/低覆盖度草地 0 4 水域 湖泊/永久性冰川积雪/滩地 0 河渠 0.067 水库水面 0.6 5 建设用地 城镇用地/农村居民点/其他建设用地 1 6 未利用地 沙地/戈壁/盐碱地/沼泽地/裸土地/裸岩石质地/其他未利用地 0
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表 4 1980—2018年塔里木河流域各土地利用类型面积及其占比
Table 4. The area and proportion of land use types in the Tarim River Basin
土地利用类型 土地利用量（104 km2）及占比 1980年 1990年 2000年 2010年 2018年 耕地 2.6853
(2.29%)2.7809
(3.02%)3.1879
(3.46%)3.6013
(3.91%)4.2668
(4.64%)林地 1.2377
(1.35%)1.2605
(1.37%)1.3310
(1.45%)1.2929
(1.40%)1.2724
(1.38%)草地 24.2407
(26.34%)24.5259
(26.65%)23.6588
(25.71%)23.4081
(25.44%)22.9069
(24.89%)水域 2.2592
(2.46%)2.2581
(2.45%)2.1791
(2.37%)2.1351
(2.32%)2.1776
(2.37%)建筑用地 0.1749
(0.19%)0.2071
(0.23%)0.1897
(0.21%)0.2200
(0.24%)0.2947
(0.32%)未利用地 61.4251
(66.75%)60.9903
(66.28%)61.4763
(66.81%)61.3654
(66.68%)61.1044
(66.40%)
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表 5 1980—2018年塔里木河流域各土地利用类型面积及其占比变化
Table 5. Changes of area and proportion of land use types in the Tarim River Basin
类型 土地利用变化量（104 km2）及占比 1980—1990年 1990—2000年 2000—2010年 2010—2018年 1980—2018年 耕地 0.0956
(0.10%)0.4070
(0.44%)0.4134
(0.45%)0.6655
(0.72%)1.5815
(1.72%)林地 0.0228
(0.02%)0.0704
(0.08%)−0.0381
(−0.04%)−0.0205
(−0.02%)0.0347
(0.04%)草地 0.2852
(0.31%)−0.8670
(−0.94%)−0.2507
(−0.27%)−0.5013
(−0.54%)−1.3338
(−1.45%)水域 −0.0010
(0)−0.0791
(−0.09%)−0.0440
(−0.05%)0.0426
(0.05%)−0.0815
(-0.09%)建筑用地 0.0323
(0.04%)−0.0174
(−0.02%)0.0303
(0.03%)0.0747
(0.08%)0.1198
(0.13%)未利用地 −0.4349
(−0.47%)0.4861
(0.53%)−0.1109
(−0.12%)−0.2610
(−0.28%)−0.3207
(−0.35%)
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表 6 塔里木河流域各水资源分区土地利用程度综合指数及变化
Table 6. Land use degree index and its variation of different water resource divisions in the Tarim River Basin
分区 土地利用程度综合指数变化 2018年 1980—1990年 1990—2000年 2000—2010年 2010—2018年 1980—2018年 综合指数 利用程度 Ⅰ克里亚河 −0.54 0.20 −1.50 0.02 0.74 133.57 低 Ⅱ和田河 0.59 0.16 −1.05 0.41 1.07 147.73 较低 Ⅲ车尔臣河 0.96 0.55 0.00 0.06 0.35 130.26 低 Ⅳ叶尔羌河 3.15 0.18 1.00 0.94 1.02 168.96 较高 Ⅴ开孔河 3.54 1.10 −0.05 0.88 1.61 147.64 较低 Ⅵ塔河干流 8.40 1.88 1.06 3.15 2.30 175.42 高 Ⅶ喀什河 5.40 0.31 1.08 0.97 3.04 166.07 较高 Ⅷ阿克苏河 4.79 −0.16 0.74 2.31 1.90 175.22 高 Ⅸ渭干河 6.62 0.53 0.80 1.09 4.20 163.67 较高
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表 7 1980—2018年塔里木河流域人类活动强度分级
Table 7. Classification of human activity intensity in the Tarim River Basin from 1980 to 2018
等级类型 分级标准/% 1980年 1990年 2000年 2010年 2018年 单元/个 均值/% 单元/个 均值/% 单元/个 均值/% 单元/个 均值/% 单元/个 均值/% 低 <0.6 13 0.25 13 0.27 13 0.28 12 0.28 11 0.33 较低 0.6~1.5 8 0.76 8 0.86 8 0.90 9 0.94 8 1.00 中等 1.5~4 12 2.39 10 2.29 10 2.55 10 2.81 10 2.74 较高 4~10 7 5.80 9 5.81 7 5.35 7 5.79 9 6.52 高 >10 4 14.36 4 15.33 6 14.69 6 15.38 6 18.03
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