Evolution of water resources and changes of ecological environment pattern in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area in the past 40 years
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摘要:
研究目的 受气候变化与人类活动的双重影响，亟需深化对粤港澳大湾区水资源演变规律的认识，以期为实现区域水资源的可持续管理提供科学依据和决策支持。
研究方法 本文采用定性与定量相结合、历史文献资料的深度挖掘以及多源水资源监测数据，全面分析大湾区自1980年以来近40年间的水文、降水、地表覆盖等水资源环境格局变化及其区域分异规律。
研究结果 大湾区水资源状况总体上呈现"西多东少、北多南少"的分布特征，1980—2022年平均气温22.2℃，降雨2022.1 mm, 主要变化周期约4.1 a。西江、北江、东江干流平均径流量分别为11231.09 m3/s、1479.63 m3/s、809.42 m3/s，径流变差系数介于0.19~0.27，气候格局呈现出暖湿化的趋势，水体总量出现减少趋势，植被覆盖整体上升但局部出现退化，显著退化面积6225.98 km2，改善面积9537.31 km2；水体（含湿地）面积变化速率呈现“缓慢萎缩−加速萎缩−稳步增长−缓慢增长”的阶段性特征。
结论 提出具有开发远景的41处应急备用水源地，允许开采量达234.26万m3/d。大湾区具有水资源与经济发展的不协调、水生态服务功能退化、水资源时空分布不均及以地表水为主的供水水源结构单一等特点。
Abstract:This paper is the result of hydrogeological survey engineering.
Objective Due to the dual impacts of climate change and human activities, there is an urgent need to deepen the understanding of the evolution of water resources in the Greater Bay Area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, with a view to providing a scientific basis and decision−making support for the realization of the sustainable management of regional water resources.
Methods This paper employs a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, leveraging in−depth analysis of historical literature alongside multi−source water resource monitoring data to comprehensively examine changes in hydrology, precipitation, land cover, and other environmental factors related to water resources in the Greater Bay Area over the past 40 years (1980–2020). It also explores the regional patterns of differentiation in these changes.
Results Our findings reveal a general water resource distribution trend of "abundance in the west and north, scarcity in the east and south," with an average temperature of 22.2℃ and annual precipitation of 2022.1 mm from 1980 to 2022. The study observes a major cyclical change every 4.1 years. The average runoff of the Xijiang, Beijiang, and Dongjiang Rivers is quantified, alongside the variation in runoff coefficients, reflecting a warm and humid climatic trend. Concurrently, the total volume of water bodies exhibits a declining trajectory, while vegetation cover overall shows an increase but with local degradation.
Conclusions The study identifies 41 potential emergency backup water sources, with a sustainable extraction capacity of 2342600 m3/day.It highlights the ongoing mismatch between water resources and economic development in the Greater Bay Area, the reduction of water ecosystem service functions, the spatial and temporal imbalances in water resource distribution, and the region's over−reliance on a predominantly surface water−based supply structure.
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表 1 大湾区水体面积变化特征
Table 1. Characteristics of water body area changes in Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area
时间 阶段性特征 变化量/km2 变化率/(km2/a) 1980—1990 缓慢萎缩 −218 −21.8 1990—2000 加速萎缩 −463 −46.3 2000—2010 稳步增长 218 21.8 2010—2020 缓慢增长 119 11.9 合计 −344 −8.6 
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表 2 主要水源地靶区允许开采量
Table 2. Allowable extraction in the target area of the main water source
所属地级市 水源地名称 面积/
km2允许开采量/
(104m3/d)地下水类型 江门市 开平—恩平 412.50 26.66 孔隙潜水−承压水 惠州市 水口—良井 278.00 15.05 孔隙水 肇庆市 怀集—大岗 237.30 15.03 覆盖型岩溶水 广州市 花都—新华 169.65 13.29 覆盖型岩溶水 肇庆市 四会—大旺 369.40 12.29 孔隙潜水 惠州市 龙溪—博罗 364.80 12.28 孔隙潜水−承压水 广州市 龙潭—神岗 235.30 11.50 孔隙潜水 佛山市 丹灶—西樵 312.40 10.32 孔隙潜水
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