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基于不同位移预测模型的地震滑坡危险性评估研究-以天水地区为例

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刘甲美, 王涛, 石菊松, 辛鹏, 吴树仁. 基于不同位移预测模型的地震滑坡危险性评估研究-以天水地区为例[J]. 地质力学学报, 2018, 24(1): 87-95. doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2018.24.01.010
引用本文: 刘甲美, 王涛, 石菊松, 辛鹏, 吴树仁. 基于不同位移预测模型的地震滑坡危险性评估研究-以天水地区为例[J]. 地质力学学报, 2018, 24(1): 87-95. doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2018.24.01.010
shu
Jiamei LIU, Tao WANG, Jusong SHI, Peng XIN, Shuren WU. THE INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENT NEWMARK DISPLACEMENT MODELS ON SEISMIC LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT: A CASE STUDY OF TIANSHUI AREA, CHINA[J]. Journal of Geomechanics, 2018, 24(1): 87-95. doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2018.24.01.010
Citation: Jiamei LIU, Tao WANG, Jusong SHI, Peng XIN, Shuren WU. THE INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENT NEWMARK DISPLACEMENT MODELS ON SEISMIC LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT: A CASE STUDY OF TIANSHUI AREA, CHINA[J]. Journal of Geomechanics, 2018, 24(1): 87-95. doi: 10.12090/j.issn.1006-6616.2018.24.01.010
shu

基于不同位移预测模型的地震滑坡危险性评估研究-以天水地区为例

  • 1.

    中国地质科学院地质力学研究所, 北京 100081

  • 2.

    国土资源部新构造运动与地质灾害重点实验室, 北京 100081

  • 3.

    中国地质调查局, 北京 100037

  • 基金项目:
    中国地质调查局地质调查项目（DD20160271）；国家自然科学基金（41372374，41572313）
详细信息
    作者简介: 刘甲美(1987-), 男, 博士后, 主要从事地震地质灾害调查与定量评估研究。E-mail:ljm19870918@126.com
    通讯作者: 王涛(1982-), 男, 副研究员, 主要从事工程地质与地质灾害评价等研究工作。E-mail:wangtao_ig@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P642.22

THE INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENT NEWMARK DISPLACEMENT MODELS ON SEISMIC LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT: A CASE STUDY OF TIANSHUI AREA, CHINA

  • 1.

    Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

  • 2.

    Key Laboratory of Neotectonic Movement and Geohazard, Ministry of Land and Resourses, Beijing 100081, China

  • 3.

    China Geological Survey, Beijing 100037, China

More Information

    摘要
  • 近年来，Newmark累积位移分析方法经过不断的改进和应用成为国际主流的地震滑坡危险性评估方法之一，众多学者基于位移预测模型开展区域地震滑坡危险性评估，然而鲜有针对不同位移模型对评估结果影响的定量研究。以天水地区为例，基于不同的位移预测模型开展地震滑坡危险性评估，对比位移模型对地震滑坡危险性评估的影响，探讨建立适用于我国的Newmark位移预测模型。结果表明：基于不同位移预测模型评估所得的地震滑坡危险性结果整体趋势一致，均能区分区域地震滑坡危险性等级的相对差异，但在同样的危险性分级标准下，所得中、高危险区的分布范围有较大差异。这与位移模型的函数形式及其区域相关性有关，在引入Newmark累积位移分析方法开展地震滑坡危险性评估的同时，应尽快建立考虑地震动衰减特征和工程地质背景的Newmark位移预测模型，为中国潜在地震滑坡危险性预测评估、震后滑坡快速评估等提供技术支撑。
    Recent years, the Newmark sliding-block model is one of the most wildly-used methods for assessing the stability of slopes during earthquakes; however, the influence of different Newmark displacement models on seismic landslide hazard assessments need to be investigated and quantified. Through the comparison between the displacements estimated by various Newmark displacement models in the Tianshui area, the influence of Newmark displacement models on seismic landslide hazard assessments are discussed. The results show that the overall tendency of the seismic landslide risk assessment based on different displacement prediction models is consistent; however, due to the region dependent and various function forms of these models, there is a great difference in the distribution of moderate and high seismic landslide hazard area. It suggests that a Newmark displacement prediction model considering the attenuation characteristics of ground motion and the engineering geological background of China should be established as soon as possible, which will provide support for the potential seismic landslide hazard assessment and the rapid assessment of post-earthquake landslide.
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  • 图 1  研究区构造位置图

    Figure 1. 

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图 2  天水地区典型滑坡类型

    Figure 2. 

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图 3  研究区斜坡地层岩性简图

    Figure 3. 

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图 4  研究区斜坡临界加速度分布

    Figure 4. 

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图 5  设定地震Arias烈度空间分布

    Figure 5. 

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图 6  基于不同位移预测公式的地震滑坡Newmark位移分布

    Figure 6. 

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    表 1  不同位移公式参数特征

    Table 1.  Parameter characteristics of different displacement formulas

    位移公式震级范围
    (记录数)    		临界加速度
    范围(g)    		相关系数
    (标准差)
    公式(3)5.8~7.5(11)0.02~0.400.87(0.409)
    公式(4)5.3~7.6(875)0.05~0.400.71(0.656)
    公式(5)6.7~7.4(290)0.01~0.400.89(0.295)
    公式(6)6.7(20)0.01~0.200.90(0.172)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 2  不同位移预测公式多得位移区间分布

    Table 2.  Displacement interval distribution based on different displacement prediction formulas

    位移公式Newmark位移(占研究区总面积百分比)
    0 cm~0.5 cm0.5 cm~5.0 cm5.0 cm~50 cm>50 cm
    公式(3)90.7%7.4%1.9%0.1%
    公式(4)97.1%2.0%0.5%0.4%
    公式(5)95.1%3.4%1.4%0.1%
    公式(6)98.0%1.3%0.7%0
    下载: 导出CSV
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