LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT OF NEW JING-ZHANG HIGH-SPEED RAILWAY BASED ON GIS AND INFORMATION VALUE MODEL
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摘要: 新建京张铁路不仅是2022年北京冬奥会的配套交通保障设施，同时也是京包兰交通廊道的重要组成部分。在京张高铁沿线滑坡灾害调查的基础上，对影响滑坡灾害发育的相关因子进行统计分析，选取斜坡坡高、坡度、坡向、归一化植被指数、工程地质岩组、活动断裂、河流、年平均降雨量、地震和人类工程活动等10个要素作为评价模型计算的基本变量和数值化参数，采用基于GIS的信息量模型法对在建京张高铁沿线及邻区进行了滑坡灾害易发性评价，并将评价结果划分为5个等级：极低易发区、低易发区、中易发区、高易发区和极高易发区。结合野外调查成果，对评价结果的可信度进行了检验分析，评价结果与实际灾害发生情况基本吻合，研究结果可为京张高铁建设、减灾防灾提供基础依据。Abstract: New Jing-Zhang high-speed railway is not only an important supporting transportation infrastructure for the 2022 winter Olympics in Beijing, but also an important part of the eastern section of the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" Jinglan corridor that the state plans to implement. Based on the investigation of the landslide disaster along the Jing-Zhang high-speed railway, a statistical analysis on the correlation factors affecting the development of geological disasters are made in this article. A total of 10 variables are analyzed as input variables, namely topography (height, slope and aspect), vegetation coverage ratio, engineering rock group, fault, river, rainfall, earthquake and human activity of the study area. The results of landslide susceptibility assessment based on GIS and information value model of New Jing-Zhang High-speed Rail will be divided into 5 grades:extremely high susceptible, high susceptible, moderate susceptible, low susceptible and extremely low susceptible. The results of the model preferably inosculate with the field surveying, and the results of this article can provide a valid basis for the railway construction in the future.
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表 1 信息量与计算参数
Table 1. Information and calculation parameters
因子 类别 信息量值 排序 工程岩组 松散沉积物 0.0187 22 软硬相间碎屑、浅变质岩 0.9738 4 坚硬碎屑岩 -0.3741 38 碳酸盐岩 -0.0248 25 坚硬深变质岩、侵入岩 -0.3752 39 断层 < 500 m 0.5850 9 500~1000 m -0.0154 35 1000~2000 m -0.3451 18 2000~4000 m 0.2308 28 >4000 m -0.1148 13 河流 < 500 m 0.4261 11 500~1000 m 0.5392 34 1000~2000 m -0.3150 20 2000~4000 m 0.1470 42 >4000 m -0.6626 41 降雨量 350~400 mm -0.5459 6 400~450 mm 0.7361 7 450~500 mm 0.6462 31 >500 mm -0.1664 24 地震动 0.15 g -0.4974 40 0.20 g 0.1381 21 植被覆盖率 0~0.27 0.2974 15 0.27~0.51 -0.1122 27 0.51~1.0 -0.2097 33 坡度 0~20° -0.7591 44 20~40° 1.1824 3 40~60° 0.3615 14 >60° 0.8687 5 坡向 0~45° -0.2027 32 45~90° 0.2429 17 90~135° -0.1197 29 135~180° -0.3618 36 180~225° 0.0186 23 225~270° -0.8150 45 270~315° 0.5644 24 315~360° 0.2095 19 坡高 0~50 m -0.6947 43 50~100 m 0.6000 8 100~150 m 1.3104 2 >150 m 1.7675 1 人类工程活动 < 500 m 0.4505 12 500~1000 m 0.2548 16 1000~2000 m -0.3715 37 2000~4000 m -0.0263 26 >4000 m -0.1651 30 
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表 2 划分的易发性等级与实际灾害分布的对比
Table 2. Comparison between evaluation results and actual disaster distribution
危险度 单元数 a/% c/个 b/% b/a 极低易发区 83340 17.33 0 0 0 低易发区 190403 39.60 4 7.40 0.1868 中易发区 97082 20.19 19 35.18 1.7424 高易发区 73358 15.25 15 20.78 1.3626 极高易发区 36595 7.61 16 29.64 3.8948 总计 490778 100 54 100 注：a为本类易发性等级的面积占研究区总面积的百分比；b为落在该易发性分区内的灾害占灾害点总数的百分比；c为落在该类易发性分区内的灾害数量。
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