Spatial and Temporal Distribution and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Carbon Sink in Northwest China
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摘要:
西北地区气候干旱、降水稀少，能源丰富，生态环境脆弱敏感，是双碳目标战略实现的难点和关键区域，其生态系统碳汇功能及其驱动因素研究具有非常重要的意义。笔者在分析近40年间碳汇用地演化的基础上，揭示了碳汇的时空变化规律，深入探讨了碳汇变化与地形地貌、温度和降水等主要驱动因素的关系。结果表明：①西北地区碳汇用地类型整体变化不大，但局部有一定的变化。②2020年生态碳汇量约为5 826.44万tC/a，其中林地占主导地位，其次为草地、水域、耕地、湿地、未利用地；碳汇量从大到小依次为新疆、陕西、甘肃、青海、内蒙古（西北片区）、宁夏；碳汇强度大小依次为陕西、甘肃、宁夏、新疆、青海、内蒙古（西北片区）；40年来碳汇量变化整体呈波动上升趋势，个别区域在某一时期有所下降。③碳汇驱动因素主要有地形地貌、降雨和气温，地形地貌决定了生态系统碳汇强度，碳汇强度与降水呈强正相关性，与气温呈现正相关。
Abstract:Northwest China is a difficult and key area for the realization of the dual carbon target strategy due to its arid climate, scarce precipitation, abundant energy and fragile and sensitive ecological environment. The study on its ecosystem carbon sink function and its driving factors is of great significance. Based on the analysis of the evolution of carbon sink land in the past 40 years, this paper reveals the temporal and spatial change law of carbon sink, and deeply explores the relationship between carbon sequestration change and major driving factors such as topography, temperature, and precipitation.The results show that: ① The overall change of land types for carbon sink in northwest China is small, but there are some changes in some parts. ② In 2020, the ecological carbon sinks will be about 58264400 tC/a, of which forest land will dominate, followed by grassland, water area, farmland, wetland and unused land; From large to small, the carbon sinks is Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia (northwest area), Ningxia; The carbon sink intensity is in order of Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia (northwest region). Over the past 40 years, the change of carbon sinks has shown an overall upward trend,and declined in some regions in a certain period. ③ The driving factors of carbon sink mainly include landform, rainfall and temperature. The landform determines the intensity of ecological carbon sink. The intensity of carbon sink is strongly positively correlated with rainfall and positively correlated with temperature.
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Key words:
- ecosystem /
- carbon sink /
- temporal and spatial changes /
- drivers /
- Northwest China
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表 1 主要参数列表
Table 1. List of main parameters
参数 定义 取值 单位 来源 FCSR 林地固碳速率 0.28～1.36 tC/hm2·a 陆地GEP核算技术指南 β 林地土壤固碳系数 0.646 / 陆地GEP核算技术指南 GSR 草地土壤固碳速率 0.02～0.06 tC/hm2·a 陆地GEP核算技术指南 
湿地的固碳速率 0.3026～0.6711 tC/hm2·a 陆地GEP核算技术指南 
水域的固碳速率 0.303 tC/hm2·a 张赫等，2020 
未利用地固碳速率 0.0005 tC/hm2·a 张赫等，2020 PR 秸秆还田推广实行率 0.8%～33.2% / 张国等，2017 NSC 土壤有机碳的变化 0.06 / 陆地GEP核算技术指南 H 土壤厚度 20 cm 陆地GEP核算技术指南 NF 化学氮肥施用量 / t 各省统计年鉴 CF 复合肥施用量 / t 各省统计年鉴 
作物j在当年的产量 / t 各省统计年鉴 
作物j的草谷比 见表2 / 农业农村部办公厅 
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表 2 不同作物的草谷比
Table 2. Ratio of grass to grain of different crops
作物 草谷比 作物 草谷比 水稻 0.623 油料 2.0 麦类 1.366 棉花 8.1 玉米 2.0 豆类 1.57 薯类 0.5 麻类 8.10 烟叶 1.0 其它谷物 0.85
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表 3 40年间西北地区生态系统碳汇量及占比
Table 3. Carbon sink amount and proportion of ecosystem in Northwest China in 40 years
年份 碳汇量（104 tC/a）及占比 碳汇强度（tC/hm2） 林地 草地 耕地 湿地 水域 未利用地 合计 1980 2953.84 433.05 177.17 90.40 293.69 8.34 3956.50 0.105 74.66% 10.95% 4.48% 2.28% 7.42% 0.21% 100.00% 1990 2980.04 433.42 188.55 90.54 282.87 8.33 3983.73 0.106 74.81% 10.88% 4.73% 2.27% 7.10% 0.21% 100.00% 2000 2971.03 428.09 208.04 92.34 302.70 8.35 4010.57 0.107 74.08% 10.67% 5.19% 2.30% 7.55% 0.21% 100.00% 2010 3923.06 424.95 262.92 91.62 292.55 8.38 5003.49 0.133 78.41% 8.49% 5.25% 1.83% 5.85% 0.17% 100.00% 2015 5072.23 423.64 314.07 89.46 295.36 8.32 6203.08 0.165 81.77% 6.83% 5.06% 1.44% 4.76% 0.13% 100.00% 2020 4734.70 435.97 299.90 87.40 260.22 8.25 5826.44 0.155 81.26% 7.48% 5.15% 1.50% 4.47% 0.14% 100.00%
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表 4 生态碳汇类型在地貌类型中的分布指数
Table 4. Distribution index of ecological carbon sink types in landform types
类型 平原 台地 丘陵 低山 中山 高山 林地 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.6 4.4 1.3 草地 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 耕地 1.7 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.1 水域 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 未利用地 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.8
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