Research on the Relationship between Urbanization and Atmospheric Environmental Quality in the Economic Development of Major Cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
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摘要:
京津冀城市群在快速城市化进程中，“高耗能、高污染、高排放”的粗放型经济发展模式带来了一系列大气污染问题，亟需协调经济发展与大气环境质量之间的关系。本文基于2004-2017年北京市、天津市、石家庄市的大气环境质量与城市化各指标数据，运用熵值法多维度研究了城市化进程中大气环境质量的演化规律。选取城市空气主要污染物SO2、NO2、PM10的年均浓度、好于Ⅱ级天天数4个指标反映城市大气环境质量水平，选取地区生产总值、人均GDP、三产比重、建成区面积等10个指标反映城市化发展水平，分别进行综合指数模型构建和回归拟合。分析表明，城市化对大气环境质量的影响是各因素共同作用的结果，京津冀三市的城市化综合指数与大气环境污染综合指数分别呈“倒U型”、“正U型”和“倒N型”。将10个城市化指标分别归类为结构效应、规模效应以及活动效应，进一步分析了各类效应对大气环境污染指数的影响。对于北京市，三类效应各因变量对大气环境均产生负向影响；对于天津市，结构效应、规模效应中的建成区面积和活动效应中的人均GDP、生产总值、居民消费水平和社会消费品零售总额与大气环境质量呈现负相关关系；对于石家庄市，由于分析数据的时间序列有限，三种效应的各因变量对大气环境质量的影响不明确。本文研究结果可为京津冀地区的城市生态文明建设提供基础数据支撑。
Abstract:BACKGROUND During rapid urbanization of cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, the extensive economic development mode of 'high energy consumption, high pollution and high emission' has caused a series of atmospheric pollution problems. It is crucial to coordinate the relationship between economic development and atmospheric environmental quality.
OBJECTIVES To investigate the relationship between the urbanization and the atmospheric environmental quality of the three cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang.
METHODS Based on the data of various indicators of atmospheric environmental quality and urbanization in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang from 2004 to 2017, the entropy method was used to study the evolution of atmospheric environmental quality in the process of urbanization in multiple dimensions. The annual average concentration of urban atmospheric pollutants SO2, NO2, PM10, and the number of days better than level 2 were 4 atmospheric environmental quality indicators, and 10 development indicators including regional GDP, per capita GDP, proportion of tertiary industries, and built-up area were selected to construct comprehensive index models and regression fitting.
RESULTS The impact of urbanization on atmospheric environmental quality was the result of the combined effect of various factors. The relationship between comprehensive urbanization index and comprehensive atmospheric environmental pollution index in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei was 'inverted U-shaped', 'positive U-shaped' and 'inverted N-shaped', respectively. The 10 urbanization indicators were classified into structural effects, scale effects and activity effects, and further analyze the impact of various effects on the atmospheric environmental pollution index. For Beijing, the dependent variables of the three types of effects all had negative impacts on atmospheric environmental quality. For Tianjin, the built-up area in the structure effect and scale effect, and the per capita GDP, GDP, resident consumption level and the total retail sales of consumer goods in the activity effect had negative correlations with atmospheric environmental quality. The impact of each dependent variable of the three effects on atmospheric environmental quality was unclear for Shijiazhuang.
CONCLUSIONS The EKC hypothesis can reflect the relationship between the urbanization and atmospheric environmental quality to a certain extent. For the cities like Beijing that have basically completed the transformation of economic development, the EKC hypothesis is established obviously. But for the cities like Tianjin and Shijiazhuang that have not completed the economic restructuring, the relationship between urbanization and atmospheric environmental quality is uncertainty. Further study should be necessary.
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Key words:
- urbanization /
- atmospheric environmental quality /
- EKC curve /
- fitting relationship
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表 1 城市化与大气环境质量相关性指标体系
Table 1. Index system of urbanization and atmospheric environmental quality
项目 指标 指标代号 单位 城市化 地区生产总值 X1 万元 人均GDP X2 元 三产比重 X3 % 城市化率 X4 % 固定资产投资 X5 万元 居民消费水平 X6 元 社会消费品零售总量 X7 万元 城市人均居住面积 X8 m2 建成区面积 X9 km2 城市绿化覆盖率 X10 % 大气环境质量 可吸入颗粒物浓度(年日均值) Y1 mg/m3 SO2浓度(年日均值) Y2 mg/m3 NO2浓度(年日均值) Y3 mg/m3 空气质量达到及好于Ⅱ级的天数 Y4 天 
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表 2 京津冀城市化与大气环境污染各指标权重值
Table 2. Weight values of urbanization index and atmospheric environmental pollution index in the three cities
城市 权重(wj) X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 北京 0.089 0.089 0.129 0.144 0.089 0.088 0.089 0.099 0.088 0.095 0.171 0.159 0.166 0.505 天津 0.097 0.100 0.074 0.096 0.123 0.097 0.097 0.100 0.091 0.123 0.145 0.158 0.149 0.548 石家庄 0.102 0.101 0.079 0.101 0.098 0.097 0.097 0.109 0.096 0.119 0.130 0.122 0.132 0.616 注：X表示城市化的各指标，Y表示大气环境污染的各指标。
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表 3 京津冀城市大气环境污染综合指数与城市化综合指数的模型拟合结果
Table 3. Curve fitting between the comprehensive atmospheric environmental pollution index and the comprehensive urbanization index for the three cities
城市 模型 β0 β1 β2 β3 R2 F检验P值 北京 线性回归 0.129 -0.888 - - 0.868 0.000 二元线性回归 0.094 (0.000) 0.413 (0.032) -10.754 (0.007) - 0.935 0.000 三元线性回归 0.071 (0.030) 1.935 (0.292) -39.657 (0.248) 165.881 (0.390) 0.940 0.000 天津 线性回归 0.109 -0.533 - - 0.423 0.012 二元线性回归 0.202 -3.212 18.920 - 0.447 0.039 三元线性回归 0.202 -3.212 18.920 0.000 0.447 0.039 石家庄 线性回归 0.070 0.026 - - 0.015 >0.5 二元线性回归 0.069 0.032 -0.040 - 0.015 >0.5 三元线性回归 0.123 -3.101 50.733 -241.459 0.521 0.050 注：所有分析均在5%显著水平上进行回归分析。括号内数据为t检验P值。
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表 4 大气环境污染指数与标准化后的各城市化因变量指标之间的相关关系
Table 4. Correlation between atmospheric environmental pollution index and the dependent variables of urbanization after standardization
项目 结构效应 规模效应 活动效应 三产比重 城市化率 固定资产投资 建成区面积 建成区绿化率 人均GDP 生产总值 居民消费水平 社会消费品零售总额 城市人均居住面积 北京大气环境污染指数 (0.635)* (0.730)** (0.954)** (0.843)** (0.912)** (0.964)** (0.969)** (0.968)** (0.968)** (0.916)** 天津大气环境污染指数 (0.69)** 0.53 (0.08) (0.81)** (0.05) (0.66)** (0.71)** (0.70)** (0.70)** 0.30 石家庄大气环境污染指数 (0.04) 0.19 0.12 (0.05) 0.02 0.15 0.16 0.10 0.11 0.23 注：“**”表示相关性在0.01水平上显著(双侧)，“*”表示相关性在0.05水平上显著(单侧)，括号内数据表示负数。
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