Characteristics of evaporation and its effect factors in the Golmud River catchment
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摘要:
水面蒸发是水均衡的重要一项，阐明其变化特征对水资源评价具有重要的指导意义。格尔木河流域是我国西北旱区典型的内陆河流域，面临水资源开发利用与水害减灾双重挑战。前人对流域内水面蒸发相关研究未考虑主控因素及空间异质性，气候变化背景下水面蒸发特征也有待进一步研究。基于格尔木河流域气象观测资料，采用时间序列分析、相关分析和多元回归分析方法，研究了流域上游山区、中游戈壁砾石带及终端尾闾湖的水面蒸发特征及其主要影响因素。结果表明：（1）流域内水面蒸发呈波动下降趋势，但蒸发量空间差异明显，上游山区近60 年蒸发量减少了183.2 mm，中游近60 年减少了1135.1 mm，下游尾闾湖近30年减少了241.7 mm；（2）流域内水面蒸发主控因素不同，上游山区主控因素为气温，中游主控因素为风速，终端尾闾湖主控因素为水域面积；（3）流域内气候变化总体呈暖湿化，与全球气候变化一致，但水面蒸发未随气温升高和降水增加而增加，呈现出“蒸发悖论”特征。研究表明，水面蒸发的空间差异性及其主控因素对旱区流域蒸发和水资源评价具有重要影响。
Abstract:Evaporation is the key item of water balance calculation. Clarifying its characteristics will be helpful in water resources assessment. The Golmud river catchment is a typical arid inland river catchment in northwest of China, facing the challenges of reasonable groundwater exploitation and retarded groundwater disaster. Previous studies on surface water evaporation in the catchment did not consider the spatial heterogeneity and main control factors, which limits deep understanding of the evaporation process under the background of climate change. In this paper, based on time series, correlation and multiple regression analysis, the variation characteristics and main affecting factors of water evaporation in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the catchment are analyzed. The results show that (1) the water surface evaporation in the basin shows a fluctuating downward trend, but the spatial difference is obvious: 183.2 mm decreased in the upstream mountainous area in recent 60 years, 1135.1 mm decreased in the middle reaches in recent 60 years, and 241.7 mm decreased in the downstream terminal lake in recent 30 years. (2) The main controlling factors of water surface evaporation are different in the catchment: the main controlling factor is temperature in the upstream mountainous area, wind speed in the middle reaches, and water area in the terminal lake. (3) The climate change in the catchment is generally warm and humid, which is consistent with the global climate change. However, water evaporation does not increase with climate change, i.e., showing the “evaporation paradox” phenomena. The results indicate that great attention should be paid to the spatial differences and the main control factors, which have important influence on the evaporation research and water resource evaluation in arid areas.
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表 1 五道梁气象站蒸发、降水及气温每10 年平均值
Table 1. Changes of the mean values of every 10 years of evaporation, precipitation and temperature in the Wudaoliang meteorological station
时间段 平均蒸发量/mm 平均降水量/mm 平均气温/℃ 1957—1966 1448.1 273.3 −5.8 1967—1976 1398.3 267.1 −5.5 1977—1986 1257.0 250.3 −5.7 1987—1998 1269.4 301.3 −5.1 1999—2008 1306.5 317.9 −4.6 2009—2018 1152.5 376.4 −4.0 
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表 2 五道梁气象站蒸发量与气象因子相关系数
Table 2. Correlation coefficient of evaporation and climatic factors in the Wudaoliang meteorological station
累计
蒸发累计
降水平均
气压平均相
对湿度平均
气温平均
风速平均太
阳辐射累计蒸发 1 累计降水 0.50 1 平均气压 0.38 0.39 1 平均相对湿度 0.34 0.75 0.38 1 平均气温 0.83 0.78 0.52 0.69 1 平均风速 −0.37 −0.47 −0.45 −0.56 −0.60 1 平均太阳辐射 0.87 0.66 0.39 0.56 0.88 −0.42 1
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表 3 五道梁气象站蒸发量与气象因子回归分析
Table 3. Regression analyses of evaporation and climatic factors in the Wudaoliang meteorological station
相关系数 标准误差 t 统计量 P值 下限 95.0% 上限 95.0% 截距 0.16 0.08 2.00 0.05 0.00 0.31 累计降水量 −0.17 0.03 −5.40 0.00 −0.23 −0.11 平均气压 −0.02 0.08 −0.24 0.81 −0.18 0.14 平均相对湿度 −0.36 0.02 −14.56 0.00 −0.41 −0.31 平均气温 0.61 0.04 17.44 0.00 0.54 0.68 平均风速 0.05 0.02 1.84 0.07 0.00 0.09 太阳辐射 0.30 0.02 15.31 0.00 0.26 0.34
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表 4 格尔木气象站蒸发、降水及气温每10 年平均值
Table 4. Changes of the mean values of every 10 years of evaporation, precipitation and temperature in the Golmud meteorological station
时间段 平均蒸发量/mm 平均降水量/mm 平均气温/℃ 1956—1965 2985.4 32.2 3.6 1966—1975 2646.3 44.3 4.4 1976—1985 2600.5 42.4 5.0 1986—1997 2481.0 43.6 5.4 1998—2007 2156.5 42.9 6.4 2008—2019 1978.6 55.2 6.6
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表 5 格尔木气象站蒸发量与气象因子相关系数
Table 5. Correlation coefficient of evaporation and its effectors in the Golmud meteorological station
累计蒸发 累计降水 平均气压 平均相对湿度 平均气温 平均风速 平均太阳辐射 累计蒸发 1 累计降水 −0.41 1 平均气压 0.08 0.04 1 平均相对湿度 0.01 0.43 −0.06 1 平均气温 −0.81 0.25 0.12 −0.36 1 平均风速 0.75 −0.21 −0.06 0.15 −0.69 1 平均太阳辐射 0.48 −0.42 0.24 −0.34 −0.33 0.25 1
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表 6 格尔木气象站蒸发量与气象因子回归分析
Table 6. Regression analyses of evaporation and climatic factors in the Golmud meteorological station
相关系数 标准误差 t统计量 P值 下限 95.0% 上限 95.0% 截距 0.60 0.14 4.44 0.00 0.33 0.88 累计降水 −0.09 0.08 −1.13 0.26 −0.26 0.07 平均气压 0.20 0.08 2.60 0.01 0.04 0.35 平均相对湿度 −0.20 0.08 −2.54 0.01 −0.36 −0.04 平均气温 −0.54 0.08 −6.40 0.00 −0.70 −0.37 平均风速 0.37 0.09 4.00 0.00 0.18 0.56 平均太阳辐射 0.06 0.11 0.55 0.58 −0.16 0.28
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表 7 达布逊湖区蒸发、降水及气温每10年平均值
Table 7. Changes of mean values of every 10 years of evaporation, precipitation and temperature in the Dabuxun Lake
时间段 平均蒸发量/mm 平均降水量/mm 平均气温/℃ 1960—1969 / 24.6 5.0 1970—1979 / 24.1 5.1 1980—1989 / 23.9 5.3 1990—1999 1437.5 / 5.7 2000—2009 907.3 / / 2009—2018 1258.5 25.1 6.6
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