Present situation and research prospects of the land subsidence driven by groundwater levels in the North China Plain
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摘要:
华北平原年地面沉降量大于50 mm的严重区面积超过全国总量的80%，防治形势严峻，需要开展有针对性的研究，为有效防控地面沉降提供科学依据。华北平原建立了较完善的地面沉降监测网络，基本掌握了地面沉降现状及演化规律，但受华北平原含水层系统影响因素复杂与时空变化大等因素制约，对地下水位变化驱动下的土层变形特征及其机制研究迄今仍比较薄弱，限制了对地面沉降发展趋势的科学研判和预测预警。在总结国内外地面沉降研究进展、基于高时空分辨率监测数据分析华北平原地面沉降现状和发展趋势的基础上，提出了地下水位变化影响下的地面沉降研究方向。目前，华北平原地面沉降出现减缓态势，天津、沧州、衡水等重点城市主城区地面沉降得到有效控制，但华北平原尤其是河北平原地面沉降总体上仍然处于较快发展阶段，主要原因是农业灌区地下水开采得不到有效控制。未来华北平原地面沉降研究应聚焦地面沉降机理和预测预警、地下水位回升驱动下的土层变形规律及其对环境的影响、地面沉降区地下水资源属性及地热开发与地面沉降关系等方面。
Abstract:The North China Plain (NCP) has the greatest area of severe land subsidence, accounting for more than 80% of the total area of severe land subsidence in China. The situation of prevention and control of land subsidence is urgent. Targeted researches are needed to carry out to provide scientific basis for effective prevention and control of land subsidence. A relatively complete land subsidence monitoring network is established in the NCP, and the current status and evolution of land subsidence are basically grasped. However, due to the limitation of the complex influencing factors and large variation in time and space of aquifer systems, the researches on groundwater-derived deformation characteristics and mechanism of soil layers are relatively weak so far, restricting the scientific evaluation of the development trend of land subsidence and its forecast and early warning. Based on summarizing the research progress of land subsidence at home and abroad, and analysing the current situation and development trend of land subsidence in the NCP with monitoring data of high temporal and spatial resolutions, the research directions of land subsidence under the influence of groundwater level changes are proposed. The land subsidence in the NCP was alleviated, and was effectively controlled in the downtown areas of the major cities such as Tianjin, Cangzhou and Hengshui. However, on the whole, the land subsidence in the NCP, especially in the Hebei Plain, is still in a relatively rapid development stage, because the exploitation of groundwater in the agricultural irrigation areas cannot be effectively controlled. Future researches on land subsidence in the NCP should focus on the land subsidence mechanisms and prediction and early warning, the law of soil deformation driven by groundwater level rise and its impact on the environment, the attributes of groundwater resources in the subsidence areas, and the relationship between geothermal development and land subsidence.
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表 1 地面沉降现状发育程度评价标准
Table 1. Evaluation standard of the development of land subsidence
分级 强 中 弱 累计沉降量/mm >1500 500～1500 <500 沉降速率/（mm·a−1） >50 30～50 <30 
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