Landslide susceptibility mapping in the Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor using logistic regression- information value method
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摘要:
川藏交通廊道位于青藏高原中东部，是世界上隆升和地貌演化最快的区域之一。在内外动力耦合作用下，区内滑坡灾害极其发育，严重制约着公路、铁路和水电工程的规划建设。在区域地质资料收集和整理的基础上，选取岩性、坡度、坡向、坡形、地形起伏度、地形粗糙度、断裂密度和河流距离8个因素为评价因子，结合传统信息量和逻辑回归模型的优势，采用逻辑回归–信息量模型对研究区滑坡进行易发性评价。通过对评价因子的多重共线性和显著性检验，得到评价因子不存在多重共线性且均对滑坡发生具有显著影响。采用ROC曲线对评价结果进行检验，其AUC值为0.81，表明评价模型能很好地预测滑坡的发生。易发性评价结果表明：研究区高易发区主要集中龙门山断裂带、金沙江断裂带、澜沧江断裂带、怒江断裂带、边坝–洛隆断裂带等大型活动断裂带控制区，以及区内坡度陡峭、地形起伏度大的大型河流深切河谷的两岸；中易发区在区内分布广泛，主要分布在岸坡较陡、地形起伏度中等的大型河流支流的两岸。研究结果有利于加深对川藏交通廊道滑坡发育分布的认识，也可为研究区的工程规划建设和防灾减灾提供科学依据。
Abstract:Located in east-central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor is one of fastest uplifting and geomorphic evolution regions on the earth. Under the coupling of internal and external dynamics, the landslide in this region is extremely developed, which seriously restricts the planning and construction of highways, railways and hydropower projects. Based on the data collection and analysis of regional geological data, this paper selects lithology, slope gradient, aspect, slope shape, topographic relief, terrain roughness, fault density and distance to rivers as contributing factors. Combined the advantages of traditional information value method and logistic regression, this paper uses the logistic regression-information value method to evaluate the landslide susceptibility of the study area. Through the multi-collinearity test and significance test of the contributing factors, it is found that the selected contributing factors have no multi-collinearity and have a significant impact on the occurrence of landslides. ROC curve is used to test the results of landslide susceptibility, and the AUC value is 0.81, which shows that the model can well predict the occurrence of landslides. The results show that the high risk areas in the study area mainly occur in the regions of the Longmenshan fault zone, Jinshajiang fault zone, Lancangjiang fault zone, Nujiang fault zone and Bianba-Luolong fault zone, as well as on the sides of deep valleys of large rivers with steep slope and large topographic relief. The middle risk areas widely exist on both sides of the tributaries of large rivers. The results are helpful in understanding the development and distribution of landslides in the Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor, and also provide a scientific basis for the project planning and construction, disaster prevention and mitigation in the study area.
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表 1 信息量统计表
Table 1. Information value of landslide contributing factors
因子 分级 灾害点数量 分级面积/km2 信息量 岩性 Ⅰ 894 149156.89 −0.224 Ⅱ 1131 144023.75 0.046 Ⅲ 1298 147800.05 0.158 Ⅳ 1311 159143.54 0.094 Ⅴ 186 42359.45 −0.535 坡度 <10° 671 148031.37 −0.504 10°～20° 940 136206.86 −0.083 20°～30° 1437 168805.57 0.127 30°～40° 1463 142399.33 0.315 40°～50° 265 38300.46 −0.081 >50° 44 8740.09 −0.399 坡向 平面 0 3054.36 − 北 558 86886.59 −0.155 东北 586 83958.15 −0.072 东 618 74825.46 0.096 东南 735 77610.05 0.233 南 730 84843.91 0.137 西南 590 81023.66 −0.030 西 488 72673.02 −0.111 西北 515 77608.48 −0.123 地形起伏度/m <50 542 141756.94 −0.674 50～100 824 146337.83 −0.287 100～150 1539 172594.47 0.173 150～200 1601 122119.25 0.558 200～250 241 43446.47 −0.302 >250 73 16228.72 −0.511 坡形 凹形坡 2183 301050.94 −0.034 平面坡 39 17135.93 −1.193 凸形坡 2598 324296.81 0.066 地表粗糙度 <1.1 2719 357464.68 0.014 1.1～1.2 1137 159157.91 −0.049 1.2～1.3 563 76548.35 −0.020 1.3～1.4 216 26711.40 0.075 1.4～1.5 89 10704.42 0.103 >1.5 96 11896.92 0.073 断裂密度/（m·km−2） <5 1798 275959.68 −0.141 5～10 930 167439.12 −0.300 10～15 774 99442.21 0.037 15～20 703 57267.24 0.493 20～25 402 30967.41 0.548 >25 213 11408.02 0.912 河流距离/m <200 421 9264.62 1.801 200～400 342 9102.11 1.611 400～600 223 8891.23 1.207 600～800 158 8698.89 0.884 800～1000 154 8549.94 0.876 >1000 3522 597976.89 −0.242 
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表 2 评价因子共线性诊断
Table 2. Multi-collinearity analysis of contributing factors
因子 TOL VIF 岩性 0.953 1.049 坡度 0.418 2.394 坡向 0.993 1.007 地形起伏度 0.499 2.005 坡形 0.921 1.086 地表粗糙度 0.732 1.367 断裂密度 0.994 1.006 河流距离 0.995 1.005
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表 3 模型相关参数
Table 3. Relevant parameters of the model
因子 B 标准误差 Wald Sig. Exp（B） 岩性 1.115 0.087 163.885 1.60E-37 3.051 坡度 2.057 0.098 442.234 3.53E-98 7.824 坡向 0.737 0.070 112.309 3.06E-26 2.089 地形起伏度 1.199 0.097 154.125 2.17E-35 3.317 坡形 1.381 0.179 59.305 1.35E-14 3.978 地表粗糙度 1.433 0.139 106.528 5.65E-25 4.193 断裂密度 1.620 0.094 296.785 1.65E-66 5.054 河流距离 1.096 0.072 228.862 1.06E-51 2.991 常量 −4.908 0.200 601.547 7.72E-133 0.007
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表 4 不同易发区滑坡统计结果
Table 4. Relevant parameters of the model
分级 面积/km2 滑坡数量/
个滑坡密度/
（个·km−2）非滑坡数量/
个非滑坡密度/
（个·km−2）高 83464.69 1247 0.0149 147 0.002 中 204267.96 1685 0.0082 779 0.004 低 166022.27 1153 0.0069 1139 0.007 极低 188728.76 735 0.0039 2755 0.015
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