A study of the stability evaluation method of rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides based on the Maxent-Sinmap slope model
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摘要:
无限边坡（Sinmap）模型在评价降雨作用下浅层黄土滑坡稳定性时精度较低。针对这一问题，基于最大熵（Maxent）模型对Sinmap模型评价进行改进，构建了最大熵-无限边坡（Maxent-Sinmap）模型，评价降雨作用下区域性浅层降雨型黄土滑坡稳定性。以黄土滑坡高发区的陕西省志丹县为例，利用野外及室内相关工作获取地形、岩土体力学参数及地质灾害等相关数据，通过Maxent模型获取主要环境变量，再根据主要环境变量进行分区，通过Sinmap模型对降雨作用下不同分区的浅层黄土滑坡稳定性进行评价。研究结果表明：基于Maxent模型得到志丹县内滑坡主要受坡度、降雨量、地貌、道路缓冲区及归一化植被覆盖指数等5个指标影响，对历史灾点的贡献率分别为27.1%、20.3%、18.8%、18.7%、6.2%。相较于传统Sinmap模型，该模型不稳定区域灾点密度在小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨和大暴雨情况下分别提高了17.26%、16.54%、17.39%、14.20%、12.96%。Maxent-Sinmap模型计算结果相较于Sinmap模型计算结果具有更大的稳定区域，且稳定区的扩大区无历史灾点分布。表明该模型具有更高精度及更可靠的结果，可以更好的为区域性浅层降雨型滑坡评价提供科学依据。
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关键词:
- Maxent-Sinmap /
- 降雨作用 /
- 区域性 /
- 浅层黄土滑坡 /
- 稳定性评价
Abstract:To address the problem of low evaluation accuracy of the Sinmap model in evaluating the stability of shallow loess landslides under the action of rainfall, a method based on the Maxent-Sinmap model is constructed to evaluate the stability of regional shallow rainfall loess landslides under the action of rainfall by improving the evaluation of the Sinmap model based on the maximum entropy model.Taking Zhidan County, Shaanxi Province, a high-incidence area of loess landslides, as an example, the relevant data of topography, geotechnical parameters and geological disasters were obtained by field and indoor work. The main environmental variables were obtained by Maxent model, and then the main environmental variables were partitioned. The Sinmap model was used to evaluate the stability of shallow loess landslides in different partitions under rainfall. The results show that based on the Maxent model, the landslide in Zhidan County is mainly affected by five indicators, such as slope, rainfall, landform, road buffer zone and normalized vegetation coverage index. The contribution rates to historical disaster points are 27.1 %, 20.3 %, 18.8 %, 18.7 % and 6.2 %, respectively. Compared with the traditional Sinmap model, the density of disaster points in the unstable area of the model increased by 17.26 %, 16.54 %, 17.39 %, 14.20 % and 12.96 % respectively under the conditions of light rainfall, moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall, rainstorm and downpour. The results of the Maxent-Sinmap model have a larger stable area than those of the Sinmap model, and there is no historical disaster distribution in the expanded area of the stable area. The model has higher accuracy and more reliable results, which can provide a better scientific basis for the evaluation of regional shallow rainfall landslides.
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Key words:
- Maxent-Sinmap /
- rainfall /
- regional /
- shallow loess landslide /
- stability evaluation
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表 1 稳定性分级
Table 1. Stability classification
稳定性级别 稳定性指数 稳定性 1 SI≥1.5 极稳定区 2 1.5≥SI>1.25 稳定区 3 1.25≥SI>1.0 基本稳定区 4 1.0≥SI>0.5 潜在不稳定区 5 0.5≥SI>0 不稳定区 6 SI=0 极不稳定区 
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表 2 不同降雨量下的T/R参数值
Table 2. T/R parameter values under different rainfall
降雨级别 降雨量值/（mm·d−1） T/R下限 T/R上限 小雨 0.1～9.9 1000 3000 中雨 10～24.9 573 1270 大雨 25～49.9 344 1032 暴雨 50～99.9 172 516 大暴雨 100～200 86 258
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表 3 研究区分区岩土体物理力学参数
Table 3. Physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil mass in the study area
区域 湿度/% 黏聚力 内摩擦角/（°） 土体密度
/（kg·m−3）上限 下限 上限 下限 低降雨黄土丘陵区 15 0.2 0.4 25 40 1750 低降雨土石山区 15 0.28 0.54 31 55 1870 高降雨黄土丘陵区 18 0.2 0.4 30 50 1520 高降雨土石山区 18 0.28 0.54 31 55 1870
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表 4 研究区总区域岩土体物理力学参数
Table 4. Physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil mass in the study area
区域 湿度/% 黏聚力 内摩擦角/（°） 土体密度
/（kg·m−3）上限 下限 上限 下限 研究区 16 0.2 0.54 25 55 1728
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表 5 研究区分区计算结果汇总
Table 5. Summary of zonal calculation results in the study area
稳定性等级 R=8.6 mm R=15 mm R=25 mm R=50 mm R=100 mm 面积/km2 滑坡数/处 面积/km2 滑坡数/处 面积/km2 滑坡数/处 面积/km2 滑坡数/处 面积/km2 滑坡数/处 极稳定 2266.3 59 2108.9 45 1917.2 39 1655.7 29 1435.5 21 稳定 478.9 46 496.9 43 507.8 27 487.6 20 413.1 13 基本稳定 471.7 36 515.1 46 551.6 53 567.5 44 581.6 26 潜在不稳定 409.2 58 488.7 64 614.2 75 819.7 89 984.3 101 不稳定 56.7 11 71.1 12 88.7 16 142.9 26 243.7 44 极不稳定 5.3 1 6.7 1 7.4 1 12.1 3 23.2 6
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表 6 研究区未分区计算结果汇总
Table 6. Summary of calculation results without partitions in the study area
稳定性等级 R=8.6mm R=15mm R=25mm R=50mm R=100mm 面积/km2 滑坡数/处 面积/km2 滑坡数/处 面积/km2 滑坡数/处 面积/km2 滑坡数/处 面积/km2 滑坡数/处 极稳定 2128.4 55 1970.3 42 1782.3 35 1545.8 27 1354.6 20 稳定 508.1 46 516.7 44 517 30 476.7 20 392.5 14 基本稳定 527.8 39 568.9 47 591.6 54 579.7 45 564.3 26 潜在不稳定 554.6 70 660.4 76 822.1 89 1099.0 113 1361.4 141 不稳定 5.8 1 8.4 2 11.7 3 23.4 6 51.7 10 极不稳定 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0
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