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摘要:
溜砂坡具有突发、不易预测，且产生危害大的特点。文章对拉萨市周边实地调研测量收集数据，采集了12组具有代表性的溜砂坡灾害点数据集合，运用贝叶斯网络与粒子群算法相结合，并利用算法更新公式弥补单一算法的不足，引入信息熵分析了降雨量、坡度、坡高和植被覆盖率在算法中的权重，以及各因素对溜砂坡稳定性的影响，并对溜砂坡的稳定性进行了等级划分，实验证明该方法有效，对溜砂坡稳定性评价具有一定参考价值。
Abstract:Sand slide slope are sudden, unpredictable and has great harm.Through field investigations around Lhasa, 12 representative data sets of sand slide slope disaster points were collected. By combining Bayesian network and Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm, and using algorithm update formula to make up for the short comings of the single algorithm, information entropy was introduced to analyze the weight of rainfall, slope, slope height and vegetation coverage in the algorithm.Then, the influence of various factors on the stability of sand-pass slope is analyzed and the stability of sand-pass slope is graded. Experiments proved that the method is effective and has certain reference value for the stability evaluation of sand slide slope.
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Key words:
- sliding slope /
- Bayesian network /
- PSO /
- stability evaluation /
- Lhasa City
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表 1 灾害点原始数据
Table 1. Raw date of disaster points
样本a 平均降雨量/mm 坡高/m 坡度/(°) 植被覆盖率/% 灾害点1 488.3 14.0 22.0 12.0 灾害点2 494.4 58.4 36.0 17.0 灾害点3 493.7 58.0 60.0 14.0 灾害点4 487.2 19.0 42.0 11.0 灾害点5 495.0 7.0 27.0 13.0 灾害点6 490.4 92.0 37.2 17.0 灾害点7 492.4 49.0 50.0 12.0 灾害点8 485.6 73.0 45.0 16.0 灾害点9 477.4 22.5 37.0 19.0 灾害点10 493.2 25.5 40.5 12.0 灾害点11 482.3 19.5 28.0 11.0 灾害点12 486.2 92.0 42.0 17.0 
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表 2 溜砂坡评价指标等级划分及标准
Table 2. Classification and standardization of evaluation factors of debris slope stability
评价指标 指标分类划分标准(分值)X 0.1～0.2 0.3～0.4 0.5～0.6 0.7～0.8 0.9～1.0 平均降雨量/mm ≤300 300～400 400～500 500～600 ≥600 坡高/m ≤10 10～20 20～30 30～40 ≥40 坡度/(°) ＜20 20～30 30～40 40～50 ≥50 植被覆盖率/% ≥70 70～50 50～30 30～10 ≤10
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表 3 碎屑斜坡稳定性影响因素的信息熵及权重
Table 3. Entropy and weight of evaluation factors of debris slope stability
评价指标 信息熵(EGD) 权重(w) 权重排序 植被覆盖率 0.7526 0.2262 4 坡度 0.6424 0.2647 2 降雨量 0.6352 0.2801 1 坡高 0.7092 0.2290 3
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表 4 灾害点数据处理结果
Table 4. Date processing results of disaster points
BIC值 BIC排序 稳定等级 稳定状态 灾害点1 0.353 4 7 Ⅱ 较稳定 灾害点2 0.408 9 5 Ⅰ 稳定 灾害点3 0.338 6 9 Ⅳ 较不稳定 灾害点4 0.490 4 3 Ⅴ 不稳定 灾害点5 0.340 0 8 Ⅲ 基本稳定 灾害点6 0.682 3 1 Ⅴ 不稳定 灾害点7 0.327 7 10 Ⅴ 不稳定 灾害点8 0.307 7 12 Ⅴ 不稳定 灾害点9 0.375 2 6 Ⅰ 稳定 灾害点10 0.462 1 4 Ⅳ 较不稳定 灾害点11 0.316 6 11 Ⅴ 不稳定 灾害点12 0.675 4 2 Ⅴ 不稳定
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