Hazard zonation of large-scale landslides along Sichuan—Tibet Railway based on contributing weights model
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摘要:
川藏铁路工程是国家重大基础设施建设项目，保障铁路的顺利建设和后期安全运营十分重要。铁路沿线发育广泛、危害严重的大型滑坡已成为全线的关键控制性问题，关乎工程建设的成败。以川藏铁路工程沿线大型滑坡作为主要研究对象，采用历史数据分析、实地调查、遥感解译的研究方法，基于ArcGIS平台，采用贡献率权重模型对铁路沿线区域进行了大型滑坡危险性评价，并利用自然断点法对危险性评价结果进行分区及统计分析。研究结果表明：川藏铁路沿线共发育大型、特大型滑坡共147处，其中大型滑坡106处，特大型滑坡41处，主要分布于白玉至江达段、昌都至八宿段、朗县至加查段等区段；铁路沿线处于高中低度三个等级危险区的面积分别为35918.5 km2、95484.3 km2和12039.7 km2，高度危险区大型滑坡分布密度为0.00199处/km−2，约为中度或低度危险区的2倍，高度危险区主要集中在邦达—八宿段、古乡—拉月段、白玉—江达段。根据贡献率权重模型求得的川藏铁路沿线大型滑坡危险度等级与野外实地调查的大型滑坡分布密度是一致的。相关研究成果可以为川藏铁路工程建设提供科学参考与依据。
Abstract:Sichuan—Tibet Railway is the national important infrastructure construction projects, and ensuring the smooth construction and the safe post operation of the railway is very important. The large-scale landslides with extensive development and serious damage along the railway have become the key control nodes of the railway and even the whole line, which is related to the success of the project construction. This paper takes large landslides along the railway (including giant landslides) as the main research object. Based on the field investigation and remote sensing interpretation of the large-scale landslides, the contributing weights model is used to assess the large-scale landslides hazard along the railway area in the ArcGIS platform and the Natural Breaks method is used to partition and statistically analyze the hazard assessment results. The results show that there are 147 large and extra-large landslides along the Sichuan—Tibet Railway, including 106 large landslides and 41 large landslides, mainly distributed in the zone of Baiyu to Jiangda, Changdu to Basu, Lang County to Jiacha. The areas along the railway in the three-level (high, moderate and low) dangerous areas are 35918.5 km2, 95484.3 km2 and 12039.7 km2 respectively, and the distribution density of large-scale landslides in the high hazard area is 0.00199/km−2, which is approximately two times of the moderate and the low hazard area. The high hazard area is mainly concentrated in the zone of Bangda to Basu, Guxiang to Layue, and Baiyu to Jiangda. It can be seen that the hazard scale of the large landslide along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway calculated by the contributing weights model is consistent with the landslide distribution density of the field survey. Relevant research results can provide scientific reference and basis for the construction of Sichuan—Tibet Railway project.
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表 1 川藏铁路沿线大型（含特大型）滑坡分段数量统计表
Table 1. Statistical table on the number of large landslides along the Sichuan—Tibet Railway
编号 区段 线路长度/km 大型滑坡/处 特大型/处 总数量/处 线密度处/km 1 成都至康定段 239.78 9 0 9 0.040 2 康定至白玉段 423.75 1 1 2 0.005 3 白玉至江达段 83.72 39 5 44 0.530 8 江达至昌都段 119.86 5 0 5 0.040 9 昌都至八宿段 177.58 31 30 61 0.340 10 八宿至波密段 206.39 1 1 2 0.010 11 波密至林芝段 208.81 2 2 4 0.020 12 林芝至朗县段 164.21 2 0 2 0.010 13 朗县至加查段 46.96 16 1 17 0.360 14 加查到拉萨段 211.79 0 1 1 0.005 合计 1882.85 106 41 147 — 
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表 2 川藏铁路大型滑坡本底因子权重
Table 2. Contributing weights of background factors of large landslides in Sichuan-Tibet Railway
因子 自权重 互权重 高 中 低 高差 0.52 0.31 0.17 0.17 坡度 0.60 0.35 0.06 0.15 坡向 0.50 0.31 0.19 0.18 地层岩性 0.57 0.34 0.09 0.17 断裂带 0.57 0.37 0.07 0.17 河流水系 0.62 0.31 0.07 0.16
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表 3 不同危险度等级区间大型滑坡分布特征
Table 3. Characteristics of large landslides of different hazard rating
危险度等级区划 总面积/ km2 面积所占百分比/ % 滑坡点数/ 处 数量所占百分比 /% 滑坡密度/（ 处·km−2） 低度危险区 35918.5 25.0 32 21.8 0.00089 中度危险区 95484.3 66.5 91 61.9 0.00095 高度危险区 12039.7 8.5 24 16.3 0.00199 总计 143442.6 100 147 100 —
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