基于压力−状态−响应模型框架的城市地震综合易损性评价

李江龙; 樊燕燕

doi:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.02.16

基于压力−状态−响应模型框架的城市地震综合易损性评价

李江龙,
樊燕燕^,

兰州交通大学土木工程学院，甘肃兰州　730070

基金项目: 长江学者和创新团队发展计划(IRT15R29)

详细信息

作者简介: 李江龙(1996-)，男，甘肃天水人，硕士研究生，主要从事城市防灾工程管理研究。E-mail：1056356017@qq.com

通讯作者: 樊燕燕(1976-)，女，河南禹州人，副教授，主要从事土木工程建造与管理研究。E-mail：12062481@qq.com

中图分类号: P65

收稿日期: 2020-04-13

修回日期: 2020-05-09

刊出日期: 2021-04-25

Comprehensive evaluation of urban earthquake vulnerability under the framework of PSR

LI Jianglong,
FAN Yanyan^,

School of Civil Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, Gansu　730070, China

More Information

Corresponding author: FAN Yanyan, 12062481@qq.com

Received Date: 13 April 2020

Revised Date: 09 May 2020

Publish Date: 25 April 2021

摘要

摘要:
为了科学评价城市地震灾害状况，降低城市易损性，基于压力-状态-响应模型框架，构建城市地震综合易损性评价指标体系，其中压力类、状态类、响应类指标分别为7、13、8项。应用熵权法确定了各评价指标的权重，提出基于云模型的城市综合易损性评价模型，并运用雷达图分析法实现城市内各个区综合易损性的相对高低。应用上述方法，对兰州市中心城区进行了震害综合易损性评价，结果表明：兰州市综合易损性等级偏向Ⅲ级，易损性中等，其中红古、安宁区的易损性程度较高，城关、七里河易损性程度较低；经济因素对各区域的易损性影响较大，通过对易损区域加强管理建设，提高城市的防震减灾能力。
- 城市综合易损性 /
- 压力-状态-响应 /
- 熵权法 /
- 云模型 /
- 雷达图分析法
Abstract:
Assessment indicator system of comprehensive earthquake vulnerability in cities is established, which is aimed to reduce the vulnerability in cities, for the purpose to conduct scientific evaluation on earthquake vulnerability.The system is based on pressure-state-response (PSR) model framework, respectively the indicator is 7, 13 and 8 items. The assessment model of comprehensive earthquake vulnerability in cities, based on cloud model, is brought up by determine the weights of each indicator through the method of entropy weight. At the same time, radar maps are applied to analyse the relativity of comprehensive vulnerability in different districts in cities. An evaluation on comprehensive vulnerability after earthquake damage in center districts in Lanzhou was conducted by application of above mentioned methods. The result shows that comprehensive vulnerability in Lanzhou deviates to level Ⅲ with a medium vulnerability. Honggu and Anning Districts suffer from higher vulnerability while Chengguan and Qilihe Districts bear the lower. In addition, economic elements have a rather prominent impact on the vulnerability in the various districts. Reinforcing management and construction in more vulnerable districts can improve their capacity in the act of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction.
- urban comprehensive vulnerability /
- pressure-state-response /
- entropy weight method /
- cloud model /
- radar chart

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图 1 兰州中心城区综合易损性云图

Figure 1.

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图 2 兰州中心城市各区域综合易损性雷达图

Figure 2.

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表 1 城市地震综合易损性评价指标体系

Table 1. Evaluation index system for comprehensive vulnerability of urban earthquake

属性	一级指标	二级指标	指标计算说明	指标属性
压力(B₁)	自然因素C₁	城市近源地震等效等级C₁₁	反映地震灾害危险度指数g	+
	人为因素C₂	城市化率C₂₁	城镇人口占人口总数比例/%	+
		年平均自然增长率C₂₂	年平均自然增长率/%	+
		人口密度C₂₃	人口密度/(人·km⁻²)	+
		建筑物密度C₂₄	建筑物的基底面积占规划建设面积比例/%	+
		老旧建筑物比例C₂₅	老旧建筑物数量占建筑物数量比例/%	+
		容积率C₂₆	地上总建筑面积占可建设用地面积比例/%	+
状态(B₂)	生命线系统C₃	交通系统C₃₁	公路网综合能力/(10⁴ m²)	−
		通讯系统C₃₂	电信业务收入/万元	−
		供电系统C₃₃	供电量/万千瓦时	−
		供水系统C₃₄	供水总量、用水总量/(10⁴ m³)	−
		供气系统C₃₅	供气总量/m³	−
	社会状态C₄	14～65岁人口比例C₄₁	14～65岁人口比例/%	−
		失业率C₄₂	失业人数占人口总数比例/%	+
		教育C₄₃	人均教育费用支出/元	−
		医疗C₄₄	人均医疗卫生费用支出/元	+
	经济状态C₅	人均GDP C₅₁	GDP/%	−
		人均GDP增长率C₅₂	人均GDP增长率/%	−
		可支配收入C₅₃	人均可支配收入/元	−
		经济多样性C₅₄	第三产业构成比例/%	−
响应(B₃)	工程抗震C₆	建筑物抗震能力C₆₁	2002年以后的建筑物占总建筑物比例/%	−
	工程抗震C₆	构筑物抗震能力C₆₂	2013年以后的构筑物占总建筑物比例/%	−
	回复能力C₇	医疗救助能力C₇₁	病床数和医生数/10万人	−
		社会保障C₇₂	人均抚恤和社会福利救济费/元	−
		地方财政收入C₇₃	年末财政收入/万元	−
		应急避难所覆盖度C₇₄	学校数和广场数/个	−
		避震减灾知识普及率C₇₅	−	−
		政府应急反应能力C₇₆	−	−
注：指标属性中，“＋”代表越大越优（正向）指标，“−”代表越小越优（逆向）指标。

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表 2 评价等级数字特征表

Table 2. Digital characteristic of evaluation level

评价等级	取值区间	综合易损性	数字特征
Ⅰ	[0.0,0.2)	低	(0.1,0.085,0.01)
Ⅱ	[0.2,0.4)	较低	(0.3,0.085,0.01)
Ⅲ	[0.4,0.6)	中等	(0.5,0.085,0.01)
Ⅳ	[0.6,0.8)	较高	(0.7,0.085,0.01)
Ⅴ	[0.8,1.0]	高	(0.9,0.085,0.01)

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表 3 兰州市5个中心城区的基础数据统计

Table 3. Basic data statistics of five central urban districtsin Lanzhou City

指标	C₁₁	C₂₁	C₂₂	C₂₃	C₂₄	C₂₅	C₂₆	C₃₁	C₃₂	C₃₃
城关区	0.200	99.120	0.030	6332.000	13.120	6.230	4.800	624.660	239568.750	102878.160
七里河区	0.200	83.610	0.360	1458.000	15.560	15.300	3.800	1153.230	117122.500	45088.580
西固区	0.200	87.280	0.110	1023.000	17.890	17.750	3.670	1105.180	101151.250	29424.000
安宁区	0.200	100.000	0.000	3443.000	20.860	19.010	3.190	288.310	42590.000	23285.180
红古区	0.150	78.170	0.400	263.000	27.120	26.100	3.100	1633.740	31942.500	11007.540

指标	C₃₄	C₃₅	C₄₁	C₄₂	C₄₃	C₄₄	C₅₁	C₅₂	C₅₃	C₅₄
城关区	8950.359	2041.200	82.400	1.910	1188.000	1009.000	72396.000	6.900	36326.000	86.300
七里河区	3922.685	894.600	82.100	1.960	1324.000	1124.000	79074.000	6.000	28534.000	62.600
西固区	2559.875	583.800	81.300	2.010	1751.000	1487.000	110782.000	4.300	33150.000	38.200
安宁区	2025.805	462.000	83.600	1.830	935.000	794.000	59814.000	6.600	32574.000	61.500
红古区	957.650	218.400	85.600	3.150	1488.000	1264.000	92080.000	8.600	25720.000	31.000

指标	C₆₁	C₆₂	C₇₁	C₇₂	C₇₃	C₇₄	C₇₅	C₇₆
城关区	82.050	28.950	1270.055	7709.000	400518.000	438.000	85.360	76.470
七里河区	55.200	17.030	1247.305	6141.000	210098.000	231.000	71.050	66.320
西固区	48.970	11.750	566.395	6338.000	124664.000	144.000	68.360	63.100
安宁区	36.440	11.250	362.895	5370.000	117027.000	96.000	66.070	60.560
红古区	32.320	7.260	854.675	4657.000	52393.000	54.000	56.320	41.180

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表 4 兰州市5个中心城区统计数据的无量纲化处理

Table 4. Dimensionless of statistical data of five central urban districts of Lanzhou

指标	C₁₁	C₂₁	C₂₂	C₂₃	C₂₄	C₂₅	C₂₆	C₃₁	C₃₂	C₃₃
城关区	1.000	0.991	0.075	1.000	0.484	0.239	1.000	0.618	0.000	0.000
七里河区	1.000	0.836	0.900	0.230	0.574	0.586	0.792	0.294	0.511	0.562
西固区	1.000	0.873	0.275	0.162	0.660	0.680	0.765	0.324	0.578	0.714
安宁区	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.544	0.769	0.728	0.665	0.824	0.822	0.774
红古区	0.750	0.782	1.000	0.042	1.000	1.000	0.646	0.000	0.867	0.893

指标	C₃₄	C₃₅	C₄₁	C₄₂	C₄₃	C₄₄	C₅₁	C₅₂	C₅₃	C₅₄
城关区	0.000	0.000	0.037	0.606	0.322	0.679	0.347	0.198	0.000	0.000
七里河区	0.562	0.562	0.041	0.622	0.244	0.756	0.286	0.302	0.215	0.275
西固区	0.714	0.714	0.050	0.638	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.500	0.087	0.557
安宁区	0.774	0.774	0.023	0.581	0.466	0.534	0.460	0.233	0.103	0.287
红古区	0.893	0.893	0.000	1.000	0.150	0.850	0.169	0.000	0.292	0.641

指标	C₆₁	C₆₂	C₇₁	C₇₂	C₇₃	C₇₄	C₇₅	C₇₆
城关区	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
七里河区	0.327	0.412	0.018	0.203	0.475	0.473	0.168	0.133
西固区	0.403	0.594	0.554	0.178	0.689	0.671	0.199	0.175
安宁区	0.556	0.611	0.714	0.303	0.708	0.781	0.226	0.208
红古区	0.606	0.749	0.327	0.396	0.869	0.877	0.340	0.461

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表 5 兰州中心城区地震综合易损性评价云数字特征

Table 5. Cloud characteristic for comprehensive evaluation of earthquake vulnerability in center districts of Lanzhou

总指标	数字特征	一级指标	权重	数字特征	二级指标	权重	数字特征
城市综合易损性评价	（0.554,0.210,0.088）	C₁	0.030	（0.950,0.100,0.050）	C₁₁	0.030	（0.950,0.100,0.050）
		C₂	0.155	（0.626,0.278,0.103）	C₂₁	0.021	（0.896,0.099,0.025）
					C₂₂	0.039	（0.450,0.501,0.178）
					C₂₃	0.018	（0.395,0.377,0.079）
					C₂₄	0.038	（0.697,0.188,0.067）
					C₂₅	0.025	（0.647,0.235,0.143）
					C₂₆	0.014	（0.773,0.123,0.070）
		C₃	0.228	（0.552,0.307,0.150）	C₃₁	0.039	（0.412,0.310,0.070）
					C₃₂	0.045	（0.556,0.301,0.171）
					C₃₃	0.050	（0.588,0.308,0.165）
					C₃₄	0.046	（0.588,0.308,0.165）
					C₃₅	0.048	（0.588,0.308,0.165）
		C₄	0.124	（0.491,0.086,0.042）	C₄₁	0.018	（0.030,0.019,0.006）
					C₄₂	0.050	（0.690,0.156,0.080）
					C₄₃	0.038	（0.236,0.162,0.069）
					C₄₄	0.018	（0.764,0.162,0.069）
		C₅	0.148	（0.508,0.113,0.032）	C₅₁	0.051	（0.252,0.168,0.051）
					C₅₂	0.018	（0.247,0.155,0.093）
					C₅₃	0.031	（0.139,0.114,0.009）
					C₅₄	0.048	（0.352,0.248,0.060）
		C₆	0.074	（0.423,0.240,0.108）	C₆₁	0.039	（0.378,0.215,0.105）
		C₆	0.074	（0.423,0.240,0.108）	C₆₂	0.035	（0.473,0.268,0.112）
		C₇	0.241	（0.562,0.201,0.077）	C₇₁	0.044	（0.323,0.314,0.046）
					C₇₂	0.021	（0.216,0.134,0.064）
					C₇₃	0.055	（0.548,0.311,0.129）
					C₇₄	0.028	（0.560,0.325,0.123）
					C₇₅	0.049	（0.187,0.103,0.067）
					C₇₆	0.044	（0.195,0.140,0.094）

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表 6 兰州中心城市各区域的特征量计算结果

Table 6. The calculation results of the characteristic quantity of various regions in central districts of Lanzhou

城市区	平均面积/km²	平均周长/km			排序
城关区	0.3701	7.4486	0.0838	0.1761	5
七里河区	0.6179	8.5295	0.1067	0.2564	4
西固区	0.7862	10.6816	0.0865	0.2608	3
安宁区	0.9320	8.7303	0.1536	0.3781	2
红古区	1.2234	11.4304	0.1176	0.3791	1

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