基于失效概率的边坡降雨阈值曲面探讨

邓夕胜; 张元; 唐煜

doi:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.03-09

基于失效概率的边坡降雨阈值曲面探讨

1.
西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院，四川成都　610500

2.
中国铁建大桥工程局集团第五工程有限公司，四川成都　610500

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目（51808470）

详细信息

作者简介: 邓夕胜（1977-），男，四川南部人，硕士，副教授，主要从事结构工程与防灾减灾研究。E-mail：dxish@swpu.edu.cn

通讯作者: 张元（1993-），男，四川成都人，土木工程专业，硕士，工程师，主要从事土木工程施工方面的工作。E-mail：djyaizhang@163.com

中图分类号: P642;U213.1+3

收稿日期: 2020-08-09

修回日期: 2020-09-20

刊出日期: 2021-06-25

Investigation on slope rainfall threshold surface based on failure probablolity

1.
School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Southwest Petrolcum University, Chengdu, Sichuan　610500, China

2.
China Railway Construction Bridge Engineering Bureau Group 5St Engineering Co. Ltd., Chengdu, Sichuan　610500, China

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHANG Yuan, djyaizhang@163.com

Received Date: 09 August 2020

Revised Date: 20 September 2020

Publish Date: 25 June 2021

摘要

摘要:
降雨是诱发边坡变形失稳的主要因素，而针对降雨型边坡的预警预报也一直是工程领域的核心问题。本文将蒙特卡罗方法引入降雨型滑坡的预警预报，首先基于正态分布的岩土体物理力学参数，建立了边坡的有限元数值计算模型，并分析了9种不同型式降雨下边坡稳定性系数的变化情况。结果显示递增型降雨对边坡的稳定性尤为不利，均匀型降雨次之，递减型降雨影响最小。其次，将降雨过程划分为前期降雨+当期降雨，并确定了前期降雨对于当期降雨的有效时间为6 d。最后，论文结合可靠度理论，选取失效概率P_f=10%作为预警指标，通过把前期降雨引入降雨强度-降雨历时关系曲线并作为第三坐标轴，最终将该曲线扩展成为前期降雨(A)-当期降雨(I)-降雨历时(D)曲面(A-I-D阈值曲面)，研究结果对于降雨型边坡的预警预报具有一定的指导意义。
- 降雨型边坡 /
- 预警预报 /
- 失效概率 /
- 阈值曲面
Abstract:
Rainfall is the main factor inducing slope deformation and instability, and the early warning and prediction of rainfall-triggered landslide has always been the core issue in the field of engineering. In this paper, the Monte Carlo method is introduced into the early warning and prediction of rainfall-triggered landslide. Firstly, based on the physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil mass with normal distribution, the finite element numerical calculation model of slope is established, and the variation of slope stability coefficient under 9 different types of rainfall is analyzed. The results show that the incremental rainfall is particularly unfavorable to the stability of the slope, the uniform rainfall is the second, and the decreasing rainfallis the least. Secondly, the rainfall process is divided into antecedent and current rainfall, and the effective time of antecedent rainfall for current rainfall is 6 days. Finally, combined with the reliability theory, the failure probability P_f=10% is selected as the early warning index. By introducing the previous rainfall into the rainfall intensity-rainfall duration relation curve and taking it as the third coordinate axis, the curve is finally extended to the antecedent rainfall (A) - current rainfall (I) - rainfall duration (D) surface (A-I-D threshold surface). The research results have acertain guiding significance for the early warning and prediction of rainfall type slope.
- rainfall type slope /
- early warning and prediction /
- failure probability /
- threshold surface

HTML全文

图 1 边坡模型尺寸参数 (单位：m)

Figure 1.

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图 2 网格剖分图

Figure 2.

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图 3 黏聚力C、内摩擦角$\varphi $、重度$\gamma $分布曲线

Figure 3.

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图 4 A-I-D阈值曲面（失效概率P_f=10%）

Figure 4.

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图 5 A-I-D等值线图（失效概率P_f=10%）

Figure 5.

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 岩土体物理力学参数

Table 1. Physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil mass

覆土参数	C/kPa	/ (°)	/ (kN·m⁻³)	/ (m·d⁻¹)
均值	20	22	18	0.65
最小值	15	17	13
最大值	25	27	23

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 不同降雨型式下边坡的稳定性系数变化

Table 2. Variation of slope stability coefficient under different rainfall types

降雨类型	初始稳定性系数	非均匀降雨稳定性系数	均匀降雨稳定性系数
直线递增	1.091	1.021	1.038
正弦递增	1.091	1.024	1.038
余弦递增	1.091	1.015	1.038
圆弧递增	1.091	1.020	1.038
直线递减	1.091	1.052	1.038
正弦递减	1.091	1.056	1.038
余弦递减	1.091	1.048	1.038
圆弧递减	1.091	1.059	1.038

下载: 导出CSV

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