Analysis on lag effect of typhoon-induced landslide: A case study of typhoon “Lekima” in Qingtian County, Zhejiang Province
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摘要:
我国东南沿海地区台风登陆频繁，伴生暴雨诱发的台风型滑坡造成了严重的经济损失和人员伤亡。已有研究在单峰型、多峰型台风暴雨的斜坡水文响应过程及稳定性分析方面取得了一定成果，但缺乏对台风暴雨型滑坡滞后效应的研究和机理分析。为此，以台风“利奇马”在浙江青田县的登陆为例，基于对台风型滑坡发生数量与降雨量的统计，构建16组不同结构组合的斜坡模型，模拟在台风登陆过程中不同降雨工况条件下斜坡的渗流—稳定性变化。结果表明，台风“利奇马”离陆后青田县内仍有26.4%的滑坡发生，存在一定滞后；不同结构组合斜坡稳定性在离陆后最低，相较于台风登陆前稳定性系数降低了13.82%；在台风登陆暴雨作用下，青田县斜坡稳定性结构影响参数中坡度最为敏感；讨论认为在台风不同登陆阶段的降雨会导致边坡的入渗特征差异，从而形成滞后效应。研究结论对于该区域的台风型滑坡早期识别具有一定指导意义。
Abstract:Typhoon landing is frequent in the southeast coastal areas of China, and the typhoon-induced landslide caused by associated rainstorms has caused serious economic losses and casualties. Some studies have made some achievements in the slope hydrological response process and stability analysis of single-peak and multi-peaks typhoon rainstorms, but research on mechanism analysis on the hysteresis effect of typhoon-induced landslide is lacked. Therefore, taking “Lekima” in Qingtian county, Zhejiang Province as an example, based on the statistics of the number and rainfall of typhoon-type landslides, this paper constructs 16 groups of slope models with different structural combinations to simulate the seepage-stability changes of slopes under different rainfall conditions during the landing of a typhoon. The results show that there are still 26.4% landslides in Qingtian county after typhoon “Lekima” left the land, which is lagging. The stability of slopes with different structural combinations is the lowest after landing, which is 13.82% lower than that before typhoon landing. Under the action of typhoon landing rainstorm, the slope is the most sensitive among the influencing parameters of slope stability structure in Qingtian county. It is considered that rainfall at different landing stages of the typhoon will lead to the difference of infiltration characteristics of the slope, thus forming a hysteresis effect. The conclusion has a certain guiding significance for the early identification of typhoon-induced landslides in this area.
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Key words:
- typhoon /
- “Lekima” /
- typhoon-induced landslide /
- lag effect /
- Qingtian
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表 1 台风“利奇马”登陆期间降雨量和滑坡数量
Table 1. Distribution of rainfall and landslides during the landing processes of typhoon “Lekima”
登陆期 滑坡数量 占总滑坡发生数/% 总降雨量/% 登陆时 8 53.3 51.81 离陆后 4 26.4 28.53 
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表 2 台风“利奇马”登陆期间滑坡地貌和结构
Table 2. Landslide landform and structure during the landing of typhoon “Lekima”
序号 登陆期 发生日期 位置 体积/m3 主滑方向/（°） 滑坡坡度/（°） 第四系残坡积物层厚/m 1 登陆时 2019-08-10 祯埠镇兆庄村 30 260 70 0.3～2.5 2 2019-08-10 季宅乡潘山村 2 51 55 0.5～3 3 2019-08-10 季宅乡潘山村 40 182 70 3～4 4 2019-08-10 鹤城街道北岸村 250 209 40 2～5 5 2019-08-10 东源镇红光村 40 205 70 3～5 6 2019-08-10 祯埠镇锦水村 200 136 65 1～3 7 2019-08-10 东源镇后降村 15 120 55 0.5 8 2019-08-10 东源镇平桥村 20 115 60 0.5～1 9 离陆后 2019-08-12 山口镇板石小区 30 100 30 1～2 10 2019-08-13 鹤城街道北岸村 50 150 45 1.5～3 11 2019-08-14 祯埠镇锦水村 100 65 40 1～3 12 2019-08-14 东源镇平桥村 80 209 45 3
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表 3 影响因素划分
Table 3. Influencing factors and their divisions
影响因素 A B C 坡度/（°） 地下水位线 第四系残坡积物层厚/m 设计数量 4 3 3 设计值 A1 30 B1 1/3 C1 1 A2 35 B2 1/2 C2 2 A3 40 B3 2/3 C3 3 A4 45
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表 4 影响因素正交设计表
Table 4. Table of orthogonal design for different influencing factors
组号 A B C 组号 A B C 组号 A B C 组号 A B C 1 A1 B1 C1 5 A2 B1 C1 9 A3 B1 C1 13 A4 B1 C1 2 A1 B1 C3 6 A2 B1 C2 10 A3 B1 C2 14 A4 B1 C3 3 A1 B2 C1 7 A2 B2 C1 11 A3 B2 C3 15 A4 B2 C2 4 A1 B3 C2 8 A2 B3 C3 12 A3 B3 C1 16 A4 B3 C1
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表 5 润嘉小区项目基坑边坡岩体参数
Table 5. Physical and mechanical parameters of the Rock mass of a foundation pit slope in Runjia community project
岩性 天然重度
/（kN·m−3）黏聚力
/kPa内摩擦角
/（°）饱和渗透系数
/（m·d−1）饱和含水量
/%第四系残坡积物 16.22 19.1 12.6 43 0.4 凝灰岩 19 15 30 6.9×10-6 0.18
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表 6 各影响因素sig值
Table 6. Sig values of all influencing factors
sig值 工况1 工况2 工况3 工况4 工况5 A坡度 0.006 0.003 0.003 0.005 0.005 B起始地下水位 0.682 0.630 0.630 0.815 0.176 C第四系残坡积物层厚 0.017 0.122 0.122 0.062 0.022
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