Evaluation of geological hazards susceptibility based on watershed units：A case study of the Changdu City，Tibet
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摘要:
作为在山地地区易发的自然灾种，地质灾害每年都给中国造成严重的经济损失。为揭示阐明典型高山峡谷区地质灾害易发性影响因素，文章以昌都市为研究区例，基于区内孕灾环境的差异，对其进行流域划分，同时选取海拔、坡度、地形起伏度等10个指标构建地质灾害易发性评价指标体系，基于随机森林模型对各流域地质灾害易发性空间分布进行研究。结果表明：（1）昌都市地质灾害类型主要以小型灾害为主，大型灾害分布相对较少但危害巨大，险情等级较高，同时，区域内地质灾害的空间分布具有沿河流与道路呈条带状分布的特征；（2）总体来看，各流域地质灾害的影响因素大致相同，但仍具有一定的差异性，金沙江流域受海拔与道路影响较为突出，澜沧江流域受居民点密度影响较为突出，而怒江流域受道路因素影响较为突出；（3）各流域地质灾害易发性空间分布存在差异，金沙江流域低易发面积占比最大，澜沧江与怒江流域均为中易发面积占比最大；三大流域均以高易发所占比最小，但在全流域内均有分布，且主要分布于人类活动较为强烈、岩性较软等区域。
Abstract:As a natural disaster prone to occur in mountainous areas, geological hazards cause serious economic losses to China every year. In order to reveal the factors influencing of geological hazards susceptibility in typical mountain valley, this paper takes Changdu City as the study area.Firstly, we analyze the spatial distribution of geological hazards, and then divides it into three major watersheds based on the differences of disaster-inducing environments in the study area, selects 10 indicators such as elevation, slope and terrain relief to build a evaluation index system of geological hazard susceptibility , and the weights of index determined based on the Random Forest. The spatial distribution of geological hazards in each watershed of Changdu City is obtained by overlaying with GIS, and it is found that: (1) The types of geological hazards in Changdu City are mainly small disasters, while the distribution of large disasters is relatively small but the hazards are huge and the danger level is high. (2) In general, the factors influencing geological hazards are more or less the same in each basin, but there are still some differences, with the factor of medium altitude and road being more prominent in the Jinsha River basin, the factor of density of settlements being more prominent in the Lancang River basin, and the factor of road being more prominent in the Nujiang River basin.(3) The Jinsha River basin has the largest area of low susceptibility, and the Lancang and Nujiang River basins have the largest area of medium susceptibility; all three basins have the smallest area of high susceptibility, but they are distributed in the whole basin, and mainly in areas with strong human activities and soft lithology.
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Key words:
- Changdu City /
- random forest /
- geological hazards /
- susceptibility /
- watershed unit
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表 1 按规模等级与稳定性划分灾害点等级
Table 1. Classification of disaster site level by size class
规模等级 数量/处 占比/% 稳定性评价 数量/处 占比/% 巨型 3 0.13 稳定 44 1.94 特大型 9 0.40 较稳定 425 18.70 大型 116 5.10 稳定性较差 818 35.99 中型 676 29.74 不稳定 831 36.56 小型 1469 64.63 易发 154 6.78 
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表 2 按险情等级划分灾害点等级
Table 2. Classification of disaster sites by danger level
险情等级 数量/处 占比/% Ⅰ级 10 0.44 Ⅱ级 53 2.33 Ⅲ级 324 14.25 Ⅳ级 1886 82.97
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表 3 按距河流、道路距离划分
Table 3. Classification based on distance from rivers and roads
距离/m 距道路距离 距河流距离 数量/处 占比/% 数量/处 占比/% (0,100] 1092 48.04 742 32.64 (100,200] 287 12.63 455 20.02 (200,300] 168 7.39 247 10.87 >300 726 31.94 829 36.47
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序号 硬度分组 主要岩性描述 赋值 1 坚硬岩类 变质岩、二长斑岩、闪长岩、石英砂岩、石英岩、长石、正长岩、
玄武岩、花岗岩、辉绿岩、安山岩、中厚层灰岩和板岩等0.1 2 较坚硬岩类 板岩、基性火山岩、碳酸盐岩、变质砂岩、超基性岩、大理岩、碎屑岩、中性火山岩等 0.3 3 较坚硬-较软弱岩类 片岩、片麻岩类等 0.5 4 较软岩类 灰岩、千枚岩、砂质泥岩、泥灰岩、粉砂岩等 0.7 5 软岩类 泥岩、泥质页岩、绿泥石片岩、粉砂岩、灰砂岩、灰岩粉砂岩、角闪片岩、
砾岩、泥岩、千枚岩砂岩、砂岩、页岩、绢云母片岩等0.9
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表 5 地质灾害点密度与各指标相关性
Table 5. Correlation between geological hazard sites and each index
参数 海拔 坡度 地形起伏度 岩性 断层密度 年均降水量 河流密度 道路密度 NDVI 居民点密度 取值 −0.253*** −0.084 0.095* 0.251** 0.055*** −0.001 0.046 0.052 0.054* 0.056** 注：*为通过0.1显著性检验，**为通过0.05显著性检验，***为通过0.01显著性检验，未标记为未通过显著性检验。
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