Landslide susceptibility assessment based on MaxEnt model of along Sino-Nepal traffic corridor
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摘要:
中尼交通廊道作为中国近年来建设的重点区域，地质灾害频发，尤其是滑坡灾害层出不穷。文章基于对G216国道沿线地质灾害的实地调查以及遥感解译结果，以最大熵模型为方法，利用169个灾害点数据和8个评价因子图层预测了研究区滑坡灾害的易发性分布。根据占比划分五级风险区。结果表明，滑坡易发概率以G216为中心向外辐射逐渐降低。同时采用刀切法检验评价因子对预测结果的贡献度，确定了滑坡主导因素及其阈值。最后通过ROC曲线验证了模型的可靠性。为中尼边境公路区域建设提供一种地质灾害预测分析模型，也为青藏地区公路边坡防灾减灾提供有效支撑。
Abstract:As a key area of China's construction in recent years, the Sino Nepal traffic corridor has complex geological conditions and frequent geological disasters, especially landslides are the most serious. Through the field survey and remote sensing interpretation along G216 highway, we obtained the data of 169 disaster points. Using the MaxEnt model and 8 evaluation factor layers, we predicted the distribution of landslide susceptibility in the study area. We divided the results into five categories: extremely low, low, medium, high and extremely high prone areas, and their proportions are 11.48%, 41.28%, 25.21%, 10.87%, 11.16%. The probability of landslide occurrence is higher near the road and lower the farther away from the road. In addition, we used the jackknife to test the contribution of evaluation factors to the prediction results, and determine the dominant factors. The study provides a high-accuracy analysis model for the prediction of geological disasters in the China Nepal border highway area, and also provides effective support for highway slope disaster prevention in Qinghai Tibet region.
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Key words:
- landslide susceptibility /
- MaxEnt model /
- Sino-Nepal traffic corridor /
- GIS /
- ROC
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表 1 评价因子选取及其来源
Table 1. Selection of evaluation factors and sources
评价因子 数据来源 高程 地理空间数据云（ http://www.gscloud.cn ）坡向 ArcGIS 高程提取 坡度 ArcGIS 高程提取 断层密度 西藏自治区吉隆县地质图（全国地质资料馆 http://www.ngac.org.cn/ ）及现场调查河流密度 西藏自治区吉隆县地质图（全国地质资料馆 http://www.ngac.org.cn/ ）及现场调查岩性 西藏自治区吉隆县地质图（全国地质资料馆 http://www.ngac.org.cn/ ）及现场调查地震加速度 中国地震动参数区划图
(http://www.gb18306.net/ )植被覆盖指数 地理空间数据云
（http://www.gscloud.cn ）
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表 2 评价因子相关性检验
Table 2. Correlation test of evaluation factors
高程 坡向 坡度 断层密度 河流密度 岩性 地震峰值加速度 植被覆盖指数 高程 1 坡向 0.056 1 坡度 −0.307 0.388 1 断层密度 0.414 −0.177 −0.104 1 河流密度 0.251 −0.141 −0.124 0.030 1 岩性 0.459 −0.125 −0.098 0.398 0.200 1 地震峰值加速度 0.491 0.322 −0.441 0.446 −0.182 0.442 1 植被覆盖指数 0.406 -0.466 0.468 −0.156 −0.107 −0.163 −0.467 1
下载: 导出CSV
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