The evolution pattern and influence of human activities of landslide driving factors in Wulong section of the Three Gorges Reservoir area
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摘要:
在快速城镇化背景下，人类活动已成为影响滑坡分布的重要因素。文章以重庆武隆区为例，基于1991—2015年330处历史滑坡数据，运用重力模型和标准差椭圆模型，揭示了武隆区滑坡灾害的时空演变格局；利用地理探测器分析了2001—2005、2006—2010和2011—2015三个时段滑坡分布的驱动因子，解释了滑坡驱动因子演变的机制。结果表明：（1）在时间分布上，武隆滑坡累计曲线呈现出“缓-陡-缓”的特征，2008年之前，滑坡发生速率随降雨量的增加而增长，而后在降雨量保持稳定的情况下，滑坡发生速率明显减缓；（2）在空间分布上，武隆滑坡集聚于西、中、东3个高发区，呈现出由西北—东南方向转向东北—西南方向的变化过程，并表现出方向性减弱和离散化的趋势；（3）在驱动因子上，降雨、地质因子和地形地貌等因子的解释力呈下降趋势，而人类活动因子的解释力不断增强，已逐渐成为影响滑坡分布的关键影响因素之一。研究成果可为三峡库区滑坡灾害防灾减灾工作部署提供依据。
Abstract:Human activities have play an important role in the spatial distribution of landslides, accompanied by rapid urbanization. This research takes Wulong district of Chongqing as an example, the research data are 330 historical landslides from 1991 to 2015. The spatio-temporal evolution pattern of landslide was revealed, with the aid of gravity model and standard deviation ellipse model; and the driving factors of landslide distribution in three time periods, 2001—2005, 2006—2010, and 2011—2015, were analyzed using GeoDetector. The results show that: (1) In terms of temporal distribution, the cumulative landslide curve of Wulong shows the characteristics of slow-steep-slow. Before 2008, the occurrence rate of landslide increased with the increase of rainfall, and then decreased significantly when the rainfall remained stable; (2) In terms of spatial distribution, Wulong’s landslides were clustered in three hotspots, and showed a change process from northwest-southeast direction to northeast-southwest direction, with a trend of weakening directionality and dispersion; (3) In terms of driving factors, the explanatory power of factors such as rainfall, geology and geomorphology is decreasing, however, the explanatory power of human activity factors is increasing and has gradually become one of the key influencing factors on landslide distribution. The research results can provide an important support for the landslide disaster prevention and mitigation in the Three Gorges reservoir area.
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Key words:
- Three Gorges Reservoir area /
- landslides /
- GeoDetector /
- explanatory power /
- human activity /
- driving factors
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表 1 滑坡分布的影响影响因子分类及说明
Table 1. Classification and description of impact factors affecting landslide distribution
类别 名称 年份 来源 描述 降雨 年均降雨量 1990—2015 http://www.resdc.cn 1 km×1 km格网 地质条件 工程地质岩组 2002 重庆市工程地质图 栅格数据，1∶50万 距背向斜轴区距离 − 重庆市1∶50万地质图 栅格数据 距断层距离 − 重庆市1∶50万地质图 栅格数据 地形地貌 土壤类型 2000 http://www.resdc.cn 1 km×1 km格网 土壤侵蚀强度 2000 http://www.resdc.cn 1 km×1 km格网 地表起伏度 2003 由DEM提取 30 m×30 m格网 坡度 2003 由DEM提取 30 m×30 m格网 距河流距离 2014 http://www.geodata.cn 矢量数据 NDVI 2000—2015 http://www.resdc.cn 1 km×1 km格网 人类活动 人口密度 2000—2015 http://www.resdc.cn 1 km×1 km格网 GDP 2000—2015 http://www.resdc.cn 1 km×1 km格网 距道路距离 2000—2015 http://www.geodata.cn 武隆区1∶25万道路交通数据 距采矿点距离 − 全国矿产地数据库 矢量数据 
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表 2 交互探测关系对应表
Table 2. Interaction detection relationship correspondence table
判据 交互作用 q(X1∩X2) < min(q(X1), q(X2)) 非线性减弱 Min(q(X1), q(X2)) < q(X1∩X2) < max(q(X1), q(X2)) 单因子非线性减弱 q(X1∩X2) > max(q(X1), q(X2)) 双因子增强 q(X1∩X2) = q(X1) + q(X2) 独立 q(X1∩X2) > q(X1) + q(X2) 非线性增强
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表 3 1991—2015年武隆滑坡标准差椭圆参数变化
Table 3. Variation of standard deviation ellipse parameters of Wulong landslide from 1991—2015
年份 1991—1995 1996—2000 2001—2005 2006—2010 2011—2015 重心坐标 107°35′E
29°21′N107°32′E
29°22′N107°37′E
29°23′N107°43′E
29°21′N107°41′E
29°22′N移动方向 − 西北 东北 东南 西北 方向角度/（°） 101.4 97.5 88.3 94.4 77.7 长半轴/km 25.4 25.3 27.3 23.1 24.4 短半轴/km 6.5 11.3 11.4 13.4 11.9 偏心率 0.97 0.89 0.91 0.81 0.87
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表 4 武隆区2005—2015年社会经济相关统计数据
Table 4. Relevant socio-economic statistics of Wulong from 2005 to 2015
年份 2005 2010 2015 GDP/亿元 29.88 72.42 131.40 人口数量/万人 40.10 41.27 41.43 公路里程/km 1153 2795 2857
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表 5 交互探测后的q值
Table 5. q-value after interaction detection
2001—2005 2006—2010 2011—2015 降雨∩土壤侵蚀 0.505 工程地质岩组∩降雨 0.504 降雨∩工程地质岩组 0.449 降雨∩土壤类型 0.487 工程地质岩组∩河流 0.500 GDP∩工程地质岩组 0.390 降雨∩工程地质岩组 0.462 工程地质岩组∩道路 0.458 GDP∩降雨 0.318 降雨∩NDVI 0.451 工程地质岩组∩
人口密度0.422 人口密度∩
工程地质岩组0.317 降雨∩河流 0.445 工程地质岩组∩GDP 0.416 降雨∩土壤类型 0.310 降雨∩背向斜轴区 0.435 工程地质岩组∩
土壤类型0.402 GDP∩土壤类型 0.302 降雨∩人口密度 0.434 工程地质岩组∩
土壤侵蚀0.396 人口密度∩降雨 0.298 降雨∩GDP 0.431 降雨∩河流 0.392 GDP∩道路 0.293 降雨∩断层 0.403 降雨∩人口密度 0.388 工程地质岩组∩河流 0.288 降雨∩地表起伏度 0.401 工程地质岩组∩NDVI 0.385 降雨∩道路 0.272
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