Landslide hazard identification based on slope unit: A case study of shallow soil slope in Wanshan, Guizhou Province
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摘要:
识别斜坡地质灾害风险已成为西南山区地质灾害防治的重要基础工作，通过GIS软件划分出孕灾斜坡单元，选取坡度、坡高、覆盖层厚度、滑体土类型、人类工程活动、日最大降雨量等6项指标作为评价因子，利用层次分析法开展山区大比例尺地质灾害危险性评价，初步评价出研究区危险性斜坡。以万山区1:1万地质灾害风险调查获取的斜坡剖面模型为基础，通过取样、试验，综合选取岩土体物理力学参数，利用有限元软件对暴雨状态下的高危险斜坡进行数值模拟，通过强度折减计算出安全系数均小于1.05，并存在不同程度的塑性贯通区。其分析结果与层次分析法评价结果一致，可作为西南山区浅层土质滑坡隐患识别的定量化评价方法。
Abstract:The identification of slope geological disaster risk has become an important basic work for geological disaster prevention and control in southwest mountainous areas. The potential unstable slope units are divided by GIS program, and six factors including dip angle, elevation, thickness of covering, slope soil type、human engineering activities and maximum rainfall were selected as evaluation factors. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is carried out to assess risk of large-scale geological hazards in mountainous areas and preliminarily evaluate the unstable slopes in the study area. While taking slope models in study area of Wanshan as examples, the safety factors under heavy rain condition are analyzed with FEM approaches. In this method, we only reduce the strength parameters of elements whose shear strain is beyond the limit value．The reduction process will continue until the global slope failure associated with the formation of whole sliding surface whose limit shear strains beyond the limit value．It is found that all of the safety factors in 12 slopes are below 1.05 which accorded with the results of AHP. It is proved that proposed method can be seen as a quantitative evaluation method for geological hazard identification of the soil unstable slope in southwest mountainous area.
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Key words:
- slope unit /
- analytic hierarchy process /
- strength reduction method /
- risk of landslide /
- identification
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表 1 重要性标度值
Table 1. Importance scale values
标度 含义 1 两个因素相比，具有相同重要性 3 两个因素相比，前者比后者稍重要 5 两个因素相比，前者比后者明显重要 7 两个因素相比，前者比后者强烈重要 9 两个因素相比，前者比后者极端重要 2、4、6、8 上述相邻判断的中间值 倒数 若因素后者比前者重要 
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表 2 近20年日最大降雨量统计表
Table 2. Maximum daily rainfall statistics in 20 years
日期 日最大降雨量/mm 日期 日最大降雨量/mm 2001-08-10 104.4 2011-06-05 69.9 2002-05-13 84.4 2012-07-17 128.8 2003-06-26 71.9 2013-09-24 129.5 2004-07-18 100.0 2014-08-18 123.1 2005-06-01 98.8 2015-06-08 85.1 2006-05-05 157.7 2016-07-04 221.4 2007-07-26 144.0 2017-08-13 53.4 2008-06-08 94.0 2018-07-06 88.7 2009-05-06 60.9 2019-05-19 100.9 2010-09-22 80.0 2020-07-02 111.1
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表 3 斜坡危险性评分表
Table 3. Scoring table of slope instability hazard
序号 影响因素 危险等级与分值 权重 I级（100分） Ⅱ级（80分） Ⅲ级（60分） Ⅳ级（30分） 1 坡度/（°） 0.149 25～30 30～38 >38、<25 − 2 坡高/m 0.031 >65 − 45～65 <45 3 覆盖层厚度/m 0.092 3.2～4 4～5.5、1～2 2～3.2 >5.5 4 滑体土类型 0.254 全、强风化层； 碎石土 含碎石粉土（20%≤碎石含量＜50%) 粉土（碎石含量<20%) 5 人类工程活动 0.051 斜坡开挖高度≥2 m；
无坡面排水和
边坡支护措施斜坡开挖高度1～2 m；
坡面排水和边坡
支护措施部分满足斜坡开挖高度0.5～1 m；
坡面排水和边坡
支护措施较好无开挖 6 日最大降雨量/mm 0.423 >105 85～105 53～85 <53
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表 4 风险斜坡区土体物理力学参数
Table 4. Physical and mechanical parameters of soil in unstable slope area
土样编号 泊松比 弹性模量/GPa 天然状态 暴雨状态 重度/（kN·m−3） 黏聚力/kPa 内摩擦角/（°） 重度/（kN·m−3） 黏聚力/kPa 内摩擦角/（°） XP21 0.3 5 17.3 33.9 10.3 17.5 31.1 9 XP23 0.3 5 17.1 35.8 9.6 17.3 32 6.9 XP34 0.3 5 17.1 32.2 9.3 17.3 29.9 7.6 XP42 0.3 5 17.1 33.7 10.4 17.2 30.6 7.6 XP43 0.3 5 16.9 33.4 9.3 17.2 31.7 6.9 XP47 0.3 5 16.8 30.8 9.1 17.3 29.8 8.1 XP70 0.3 5 17.2 34.5 7.9 17.5 29.1 6.9 XP77 0.3 5 17.3 35 8.7 17.6 29.9 8 XP79 0.3 5 17.4 32.8 9.3 17.4 29.7 7.1 XP85 0.3 5 16.8 33.5 7.9 17.1 28.5 7.6 XP140 0.3 5 17.1 33.9 8.8 17.4 30.5 6.8 XP143 0.3 5 17.2 33.8 8.4 17.3 28 6.8
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