Evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Ya’an City based on depth neural network model
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摘要:
准确的滑坡易发性评价结果是滑坡风险评估的基础，对防灾减灾工作有着重要的意义。文章以雅安市为研究区，在野外地质调查的基础上，选取高程、坡度、坡向、平面曲率、剖面曲率、地形湿度指数、泥沙输运指数、径流强度指数、归一化植被指数、年均降雨量、地震动峰值加速度、地形起伏度、距断层距离、地层岩性、距河流距离、距道路距离等16个因子，构建研究区滑坡易发性评价指标体系，采用度神经网深络（DNN）模型进行滑坡易发性评价，根据易发性指数将研究区划分为极高易发区（12.2%）、高易发区（7.0%）、中易发区（9.8%）、低易发区（17.0%）、极低易发区（54.1%）五个等级，并与人工神经网络（ANN）模型进行对比，用ROC曲线的AUC值进行精度检验。结果表明，DNN模型的评价精度AUC（0.99）大于ANN（0.96）模型。因此，相比ANN模型，DNN模型在该研究区有着更好的拟合能力和预测能力，滑坡极高和高易发区主要分布于雅安市人类工程活动强烈的低海拔地区，沿着道路和水系分布，距道路距离、高程、年均降雨量是影响雅安滑坡发育的主要影响因子。
Abstract:Accurate evaluation of landslide susceptibility results are the basis of landslide risk assessment and are of great significance to disaster prevention and reduction. This paper focuses on Ya’an City as the study area and selects various factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, plane curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, runoff intensity index, normalized difference vegetation index, annual rainfall, peak ground acceleration, topographic relief, distance from fault, stratum lithology, distance from river, and distance from road, to construct a landslide susceptibility evaluation index system. Based on field geological survey data, a deep neural network model is used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility. The study area is classified into five categories based on susceptibility index, including landslide extremely high-prone area (12.2%), landslide high-prone area (7.0%), landslide moderate-prone area (9.8%), landslide low-prone area (17.0%) and landslide extremely low-prone area (54.1%). The accuracy of the DNN model was tested with an AUC value and compared to the artificial neural network (ANN) model. The results show that the DNN model has a higher evaluation accuracy AUC (0.99) compared to ANN (0.96). Thus, the DNN model has a better fitting degree and prediction ability in the study area than the ANN model. The extremely high-prone area and high-prone area of landslides are primarily distributed in the low altitude areas with significant human engineering activities in Ya’an City, along the roads and water systems. The main control factors affecting the development of Ya’an landslide are distance from the road, elevation and annual average rainfall.
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Key words:
- landslide /
- susceptibility /
- deep neural network /
- Ya’an City
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表 1 滑坡易发性评价因子分级
Table 1. Classification of landslide susceptibility evaluation factors
评价因子 因子分级 栅格数 分级面积
占比/%滑坡数/个 滑坡占比/% 频率比 高程/m <1 500 5 204 401 0.31 1 233 0.82 2.69 [1 500，2 500) 6 332 165 0.37 244 0.16 0.44 [2 500，3 500) 3 923 903 0.23 21 0.01 0.06 [3 500，4 500] 1 422 562 0.08 0 0.00 0.00 >4 500 137 525 0.01 0 0.00 0.00 坡度/（°） <10 1 838 336 0.11 298 0.20 1.85 [10，20) 3 394 994 0.20 579 0.39 1.95 [20，30) 4 388 262 0.26 367 0.25 0.96 [30，40) 4 265 068 0.25 181 0.12 0.49 [40，50) 2 411 994 0.14 51 0.03 0.24 [50，60] 642 955 0.04 11 0.01 0.20 >60 78 947 0.00 1 0.00 0.14 坡向 平地 1 347 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 北向 1 967 849 0.12 122 0.08 0.71 东北 2 188 728 0.13 168 0.11 0.88 东向 2 267 964 0.13 226 0.15 1.14 东南 2 482 029 0.15 224 0.15 1.03 南向 1 998 089 0.12 172 0.12 0.98 西南 1 974 369 0.12 206 0.14 1.19 西向 1 942 033 0.11 168 0.11 0.99 西北 2 198 148 0.13 202 0.14 1.05 平面曲率 <-1.5 1 670 196 0.10 67 0.05 0.46 [−1.5，−0.5) 3 515 500 0.21 256 0.17 0.83 [−0.5，0.5) 6 569 423 0.39 828 0.56 1.44 [0.5，1.5] 3 535 554 0.21 258 0.17 0.83 >1.5 1 729 882 0.10 79 0.05 0.52 剖面曲率 <−1.5 2 178 456 0.13 75 0.05 0.39 [−1.5，−0.5) 3 463 053 0.20 271 0.18 0.90 [−0.5，0.5) 6 083 729 0.36 703 0.47 1.32 [0.5，1.5] 3 582 013 0.21 344 0.23 1.10 >1.5 2 207 544 0.13 95 0.06 0.49 TWI <4 2 338 941 0.14 55 0.04 0.27 [4，6) 9 159 642 0.54 775 0.52 0.97 [6，8) 3 579 077 0.21 378 0.25 1.21 [8，10) 1 206 481 0.07 170 0.11 1.61 [10，12] 435 025 0.03 66 0.04 1.74 >12 301 390 0.02 44 0.03 1.67 SPI <30 6 586 113 0.39 647 0.43 1.12 [30，70) 3 369 824 0.20 273 0.18 0.93 [70，110) 1 583 666 0.09 127 0.09 0.92 [110，150] 938 662 0.06 70 0.05 0.85 >150 4 542 291 0.27 371 0.25 0.93 STI <10 4 335 955 0.25 567 0.38 1.50 [10，20) 4 286 230 0.25 340 0.23 0.91 [20，30) 2 423 036 0.14 185 0.12 0.87 [30，40) 1 498 141 0.09 103 0.07 0.79 [40，50] 965 895 0.06 56 0.04 0.66 >50 3 511 299 0.21 237 0.16 0.77 NDVI <0 572 046 0.03 12 0.01 0.24 [0，0.1) 4 391 796 0.26 243 0.16 0.63 [0.1，0.2) 7 452 084 0.44 755 0.51 1.16 [0.2，0.3] 4 210 818 0.25 445 0.30 1.21 >0.3 393 811 0.02 33 0.02 0.96 降雨/mm <1 100 347 828 0.02 51 0.03 1.68 [1 100，1 200) 5 875 063 0.35 1 123 0.75 2.19 [1 200，1 300) 6 988 356 0.41 306 0.21 0.50 [1 300，1 400] 3 161 041 0.19 8 0.01 0.03 >1 400 648 268 0.04 0 0.00 0.00 PGA 0.10 5 547 189 0.33 642 0.43 1.32 0.15 6 626 792 0.39 687 0.46 1.19 0.20 4 846 575 0.28 159 0.11 0.38 地形起伏度/m <200 3 046 522 0.18 718 0.48 2.70 [200，400) 8 659 562 0.51 660 0.44 0.87 [400，600) 4 893 981 0.29 106 0.07 0.25 [600，800] 400 489 0.02 4 0.01 0.11 >800 20 002 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 岩性 A 6 690 039 0.39 469 0.32 0.80 B 1 930 133 0.11 412 0.28 2.44 C 2 589 329 0.15 86 0.06 0.38 D 2 805 880 0.16 86 0.06 0.35 E 1 280 290 0.08 54 0.04 0.48 F 607 260 0.04 142 0.10 2.67 G 1 117 652 0.07 239 0.16 2.45 距河流距离/m <200 359 325 0.02 96 0.06 3.06 [200，400) 356 325 0.02 75 0.05 2.41 [400，600) 353 757 0.02 80 0.05 2.59 [600，800) 350 074 0.02 81 0.05 2.65 [800，1 000] 348 031 0.02 70 0.05 2.30 >1 000 15 253 044 0.90 1 086 0.73 0.81 距断层距离/m <1 000 3 769 155 0.22 239 0.16 0.73 [1 000，2 000) 2 849 793 0.17 166 0.11 0.67 [2 000，3 000) 2 175 357 0.13 143 0.10 0.75 [3 000，4 000) 1 662 881 0.10 116 0.08 0.80 [4 000，5 000] 1 315 010 0.08 156 0.10 1.36 >5 000 5 248 360 0.31 668 0.45 1.46 距道路距离/m <500 1 770 408 0.10 606 0.41 3.92 [500，1 000) 1 391 697 0.08 233 0.16 1.92 [1 000，1 500) 1 222 996 0.07 222 0.15 2.08 [1 500，2 000) 1 081 568 0.06 127 0.09 1.34 [2 000，2 500] 968 316 0.06 69 0.05 0.82 >2 500 10 585 571 0.62 231 0.16 0.25 注：A为较坚硬的砂岩页岩板岩；B为较软的泥岩千枚岩页岩；C为软硬相间的碳酸盐岩及碎屑岩；D为较坚硬的石灰岩白云岩；E为坚硬的玄武岩苦橄岩角质岩；F为松散的堆积物冲积物；G为较坚硬的长石石英砂岩。 
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表 2 影响因子的相关性分析
Table 2. Correlation analysis of impact factors
因子 高程 坡度 坡向 平面曲率 剖面曲率 TWI STI SPI NDVI 降雨 PGA 起伏度 断层 岩性 河流 道路 高程 1.00 坡度 0.41 1.00 坡向 −0.03 −0.01 1.00 平面曲率 0.01 0.00 0.01 1.00 剖面曲率 0.01 0.05 0.03 0.18 1.00 TWI −0.19 −0.39 0.02 −0.28 0.17 1.00 STI 0.17 0.45 0.02 −0.35 0.17 0.51 1.00 SPI 0.08 0.25 0.03 −0.39 0.18 0.64 0.92 1.00 NDVI −0.23 −0.10 −0.68 −0.01 0.07 0.04 −0.04 −0.01 1.00 降雨 0.67 0.28 −0.04 0.01 0.02 −0.16 0.10 0.03 −0.23 1.00 PGA 0.28 0.21 −0.01 −0.02 0.09 −0.05 0.15 0.10 0.01 0.31 1.00 起伏度 0.31 0.18 0.01 0.01 0.08 −0.06 0.05 0.16 −0.36 0.23 0.12 1.00 断层 −0.14 −0.20 0.02 0.00 −0.03 0.05 −0.13 −0.09 −0.07 0.00 −0.15 0.01 1.00 岩性 −0.08 −0.08 −0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 −0.06 −0.03 0.02 −0.01 0.10 −0.04 −0.01 1.00 河流 0.24 0.06 0.03 −0.02 −0.01 −0.16 −0.04 −0.09 0.04 0.29 0.08 −0.06 −0.07 −0.07 1.00 道路 0.61 0.30 −0.02 −0.03 −0.01 −0.17 0.12 0.03 −0.06 0.56 0.27 0.10 −0.16 −0.08 0.39 1.00
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表 3 滑坡易发性评价频率比
Table 3. Frequency ratio of landslide susceptibility assessment
模型 易发性等级 分级栅格数 分级比例 滑坡数量 滑坡比例 频率比 ANN 极低 10 574 871 0.62 28 0.02 0.03 低 1 397 388 0.21 33 0.02 0.27 中 1 264 627 0.43 64 0.04 0.58 高 1 698 651 0.01 341 0.23 2.30 极高 2 085 018 0.12 1 022 0.69 5.61 DNN 极低 9 211 525 0.54 12 0.01 0.01 低 2 876 474 0.17 17 0.01 0.07 中 1 673 121 0.10 76 0.05 0.52 高 1 189 737 0.07 170 0.11 1.63 极高 2 069 700 0.12 1 213 0.82 6.70
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