Susceptibility assessment of debris flow based on watershed units in Kangding City, Sichuan Province
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摘要:
为研究康定市泥石流易发性，将康定市划分为421个沟域单元，采用ArcGIS软件中空间分析工具以及SPSS软件分别对评价指标内部叠加情况、评价指标与泥石流灾害相关性进行了分析，通过筛除剔除重叠度高、相关性差的评价因子，选取流域面积、melton比率、形状系数比、流域崩滑密度、流域植被覆盖率、流域道路密度、流域平均径流侵蚀力指数、多年汛期平均降雨量等8个评价指标进行康定市泥石流地质灾害易发性评价。采用信息量模型与熵值法相结合的方法定量评价了泥石流易发性，熵值法定量确定了评价指标权重，计算出评价因子加权信息量值，将康定市泥石流划分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区以及低易发区4个等级。通过频率比模型、受试者工作特征曲线（ROC曲线）对泥石流易发性评价结果进行检验，ROC曲线AUC值为0.842，表明评价模型精度较高。
Abstract:To study the susceptibility of debris flow in Kangding City, the study area was divided into 421 watershed units. Spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS software and SPSS software were used to analyze the internal superposition of evaluation indicators and the correlation between evaluation indicators and debris flows disasters. By screening out the evaluation factors with a high degree of overlap and poor correlation, eight evaluation factors were selected for debris flow susceptibility assessment. These included watershed unit area, melton rate, form factor ratio, collapse and landslides density of catchment, average fractional vegetation cover of catchment, road density of catchment, average stream power index of catchment, and average rainfall during the multi-year flood season. The susceptibility of debris flow was quantitatively evaluated by combining the information value model and the entropy method. The weights of the evaluation indicators were quantitatively determined by the entropy method, and the evaluation factor weighted information quantity value was calculated. Based on this, the debris flow susceptibility in Kangding City was divided into four grades: extremely high, high, medium and low. The results of debris flow susceptibility assessment were tested using the frequency ratio model and the Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, with an AUC curve of 0.842, indicating high accuracy of the evaluation model.
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Key words:
- debris flow /
- susceptibility assessment /
- Kangding City /
- watershed unit /
- information value
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表 1 数据来源和数据类型
Table 1. Sources and types of data
基础数据 数据来源 数据格式 DEM 县域1∶5万DLG 栅格 交通、水系 县域1∶5万DLG 矢量 地层、构造 县域1∶5万区域地质图 矢量 降雨 康定市气象局 矢量 地震加速度 地震数据来自中国地震信息网（ http://www.csi.ac.cn/publish/main/837/1077/index.html ）的1∶400万中国地震动峰值加速度区划图矢量 Landsat8 数据 来源美国地质调查局（ landsatlook.usgs.gov ） ，计算植被覆盖度多波段栅
格数据历史泥石流灾害点 《康定市地质灾害风险调查评价报告》 矢量 
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表 2 评价指标内部相关性系数
Table 2. Internal correlation coefficients of evaluation factors
指标 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O A 1 B −0.13 1 C 0.22 0.72 1 D −0.62 0.56 0.31 1 E −0.60 0.65 0.42 0.88 1 F −0.25 −0.03 −0.14 0.48 0.05 1 G −0.09 −0.13 −0.20 −0.13 0.01 −0.24 1 H 0.00 −0.40 −0.51 −0.23 −0.31 0.08 0.05 1 I −0.08 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.08 −0.02 0.21 −0.18 1 J −0.26 0.32 0.31 0.35 0.16 −0.09 0.27 −0.31 0.32 1 K −0.08 0.40 0.24 0.19 0.24 −0.06 0.26 −0.25 0.21 0.25 1 L −0.02 −0.15 −0.15 −0.07 −0.05 −0.04 0.26 0.01 0.10 0.25 0.21 1 M −0.12 −0.06 0.11 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.01 −0.33 −0.05 0.13 0.07 0.06 1 N 0.15 −0.16 0.16 −0.52 −0.49 −0.23 −0.01 −0.10 0.01 −0.12 −0.01 0.04 −0.01 1 O 0.02 −0.33 −0.16 −0.12 −0.12 −0.03 0.26 −0.19 −0.03 −0.01 0.00 0.18 0.20 0.05 1 注：表中A为流域面积；B为流域平均坡度；C为流域地形起伏度；D为沟道纵坡降；E为melton比率；F为形状系数比；G为流域沟壑密度；H为工程地质岩组；I为流域断层密度；J为流域崩滑密度；K为NDVI；L为流域道路密度；M为PGA；N为SPI；O为多年汛期平均降雨量。
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表 3 评价指标与泥石流相关性
Table 3. The correlation between evaluation factors and debris flow
自变量 因变量Y spearman相关系数 显著性 X1 −0.247** 0.000 X2 0.221** 0.000 X3 −0.166** 0.001 X4 0.038 0.438 X5 −0.026 0.596 X6 0.009 0.858 X7 0.396** 0.000 X8 0.180** 0.000 X9 0.378** 0.000 X10 0.031 0.520 X11 −0.187** 0.000 X12 0.165** 0.001 注：表中Y为泥石流是否发生，X1为流域面积，X2为melton比率，X3为形状系数比，X4为流域沟壑密度，X5为工程地质岩组，X6为流域断层密度，X7为流域崩滑密度，X8为流域植被覆盖率（NDVI），X9为流域道路密度，X10为地震动峰值加速度（PGA），X11为流域平均径流侵蚀力指数（SPI），X12为多年汛期平均降雨量。**，在置信度（双侧）为0.01时，相关性是显著的。*，在置信度（双侧）为0.05时，相关性是显著的。
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表 4 评价指标权重及加权信息量值
Table 4. Evaluation factors weights and its weighted information value
因子分类 一级评价因子 序号 二级评价因子 泥石流
数量/个沟域单元
个数/个泥石流密度/
（个·km−2）信息量值 权重 加权信息量值 地形条件 流域面积/km2 1 <0.2 5 7 477.55 1.1418 0.1120 0.1279 2 0.2～5 50 134 14.65 0.4925 0.0552 3 5～10 9 84 1.5 −0.7553 −0.0846 4 10～50 31 171 0.79 −0.2294 −0.0257 5 >50 1 25 0.06 −1.7406 −0.1949 melton比率 1 <0.3 7 57 0.32 −0.6189 0.0780 −0.0483 2 0.3～0.5 17 98 0.7 −0.2735 −0.0213 3 0.5～0.7 17 106 1.33 −0.3519 −0.0275 4 0.7～1 26 104 4.2 0.0920 0.0072 5 >1 29 56 27.28 0.8202 0.0640 形状系数比 1 <0.25 19 90 1.44 −0.0771 0.0880 −0.0068 2 0.25～0.4 29 163 1 −0.2482 −0.0218 3 0.4～0.7 30 135 1.45 −0.0258 −0.0023 4 0.7～1.2 13 25 5.53 0.8244 0.0725 5 >1.2 5 8 8.09 1.0083 0.0887 物源条件 流域崩滑密度/（处·km−2） 1 0～0.02 13 157 0.4 −1.0130 0.1820 −0.1844 2 0.02～0.05 17 107 1.02 −0.3613 −0.0658 3 0.05～0.08 15 57 2 0.1433 0.0261 4 0.08～0.11 17 36 3.6 0.7280 0.1325 5 >0.11 34 64 7.11 0.8458 0.1539 NDVI 1 0～0.15 16 131 0.91 −0.6243 0.0970 −0.0606 2 0.15～0.25 19 87 1.09 −0.0432 −0.0042 3 0.25～0.35 22 71 1.56 0.3066 0.0297 4 0.35～0.5 22 62 2.18 0.4422 0.0429 5 >0.5 17 70 2.55 0.0630 0.0061 流域道路密度/（km·km−2） 1 0～0.16 32 253 0.82 −0.5894 0.2120 −0.1249 2 0.16～0.52 19 76 1.21 0.0920 0.0195 3 0.52～1.05 23 57 2.86 0.5707 0.1210 4 1.05～1.8 5 13 3.44 0.5228 0.1108 5 >1.8 17 22 10.62 1.2205 0.2587 SPI 1 <2.25 29 144 5.1 −0.1242 0.0690 −0.0086 2 2.25～2.75 17 118 1.07 −0.4592 −0.0317 3 2.75～3.2 20 81 1.13 0.0796 0.0055 4 3.2～3.7 14 37 1.46 0.5064 0.0349 5 >3.7 16 41 0.94 0.5373 0.0371 水源条件 多年汛期平均降雨量/mm 1 <470 11 69 1.11 −0.3579 0.1620 −0.0580 2 470～520 25 145 1.04 −0.2796 −0.0453 3 520～580 26 112 1.54 0.0179 0.0029 4 580～660 16 48 1.94 0.3797 0.0615 5 >660 18 47 2.63 0.5185 0.0840
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表 5 泥石流易发性评价结果统计表
Table 5. Statistical table of debris flow susceptibility evaluation results
易发性等级 面积/km2 面积
百分比/%泥石流点
数量/个泥石流
百分比/%频率比 极高易发区 528.85 4.56 49 51.04 11.19 高易发区 1597.19 13.78 31 32.29 2.34 中易发区 1988.87 17.16 12 12.50 0.73 低易发区 7476.75 64.50 4 4.17 0.06
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