Risk assessment of geological disasters in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province
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摘要:
地质灾害风险评价是地质灾害风险管控的支撑与依据，对于科学防治地质灾害具有重要意义。以江苏南京为研究区，选取历史灾害点密度等影响因子开展易发性评价，以降雨量作为诱发因素开展危险性评价，结合承灾体易损性，分析划定地质灾害高、中、低三类风险区。结果表明：高风险区主要集中在沿江的老山、幕府山、紫金山、栖霞山以及青龙山等部分人员聚居的山前坡麓一带，面积51.3 km2，占比0.8%；中风险区主要集中在低山丘陵中人员较集中的区域，面积371.9 km2，占比5.6%；低风险区分布较广，位于其余低山丘陵岗地，面积1740.1 km2，占比26.4%。研究成果可有效支撑当地地质灾害防灾减灾以及国土空间规划应用。
Abstract:Geological disaster risk assessment serves as a crucial foundation for the risk management and control of such risks, playing a significant role in the scientific prevention and control of geological disasters. This study focuses on Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, and employs historical disaster point density and other influencing factors to evaluate the susceptibility of geological disasters. Rainfall is utilized as the triggering factor for conducting probability assessments. By considering the comprehensive vulnerability of the affected areas, the study analyzes and defines the high, medium, and low-risk zones for geological disasters. The findings reveal that high-risk zone primarily concentrates on populated piedmont slopes, including Laoshan, Mufu Mountain, Zijin Mountain, Qixia Mountain, and Qinglong Mountain, covering an area of 51.3 km2, accounting for 0.8% of the total area. Medium-risk zone is mainly located in areas with relatively concentrated populations in low mountains and hills, covering an area of 371.9 km2, accounting for 5.6% of the total area. Low-risk zone is more widely distributed, occupying the remaining low mountains and hills, covering an area of 1740.1 km2, accounting for 26.4% of the total area. The research results can effectively support disaster prevention, mitigation efforts related to geological disasters, and contribute to land space planning.
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Key words:
- geological hazard /
- susceptibility /
- probability /
- vulnerability /
- risk assessment /
- Nanjing
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表 1 地质灾害风险等级矩阵分析
Table 1. Analysis of geological hazard risk level matrix
风险性 危险性 极高 高 中 低 易
损
性极高 极高 极高 高 中 高 极高 高 中 中 中 高 高 中 低 低 高 中 低 低 
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表 2 评价因子信息量
Table 2. Information value of evaluation factors
评价因子 子类区间 信息量值 灾害点密度/（个·km−2） 0 −5.86 (0，2] 2.51 (2，4] 3.10 >4 4.12 坡度/（°） [0，10) −0.97 [10，25) 1.97 [25，40) 3.31 [40，50) 4.87 [50，90] 5.32 地形起伏度/m <20 −2.16 [20，40) 2.86 [40，90) 3.47 [90，120) 5.24 [120，140] 6.85 >140 7.13 工程地质岩组 老黏性土 −1.43 一般黏性土 −3.71 岩浆岩类坚硬岩 1.33 碎屑岩类软～极软岩 2.64 碳酸盐岩类坚硬岩 3.10 碳酸盐岩类较坚硬岩 2.40 碎屑岩类较坚硬岩 2.39 碎屑岩类坚硬岩 1.08 距断层距离/m <20 2.50 [20，200) 2.48 [200，500) 1.78 [500，1000] 0.90 >1000 −0.56 距道路距离/m <100 −0.19 [100，200] 0.06 (200，300] 0.53 (300，400] 0.65 (400，500] 0.59 >500 −2.19
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表 3 地质灾害易发性分区评价判断矩阵
Table 3. Judgment matrix for assessing susceptibility zonation of geological hazards
地质灾害易发性
分区评价地质环境条件 诱发因素 地质灾害现状 权重 地质环境条件 1 3 3 0.5936 诱发因素 1/3 1 2 0.2493 地质灾害现状 1/3 1/2 1 0.1571 判断矩阵一致性比例：0.0516;对总目标的权重：1.0000；
最大特征根：3.0536
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表 4 地质环境条件判断矩阵
Table 4. Judgment matrix for geological environmental conditions
地质环境条件 坡度 工程地质岩组 地形起伏度 距断层距离 权重 坡度 1 1 1 1/2 0.2071 工程地质岩组 1 1 1 2 0.2929 地形起伏度 1 1 1 2 0.2929 距断层距离 2 1/2 1/2 1 0.2071 判断矩阵一致性比例：0.0923;对总目标的权重：0.5936；
最大特征根：4.2463
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表 5 层次分析法计算各因子权重
Table 5. Calculation of factor weights using analytic hierarchy process （AHP）
影响因子 权重 历史灾害点密度 0.17 坡度 0.12 地形起伏度 0.17 工程地质岩组 0.17 距断层距离 0.12 距道路距离 0.25
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表 6 研究区不同重现期降雨量
Table 6. Precipitation distribution in different recurrence period in the study area
年均及不同重现期 降雨量/mm 年最大日降雨量均值 101 P=10% 157.92 P=5% 182.22 P=2% 212.84 P=1% 235.22
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