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基于“阶跃”变形特征的降雨型滑坡预警判据探讨

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贲琰棋, 易武, 李华兵, 黄晓虎, 刘伟, 肖宇煌. 基于“阶跃”变形特征的降雨型滑坡预警判据探讨[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2023, 34(4): 30-38. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202208008
引用本文: 贲琰棋, 易武, 李华兵, 黄晓虎, 刘伟, 肖宇煌. 基于“阶跃”变形特征的降雨型滑坡预警判据探讨[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2023, 34(4): 30-38. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202208008
shu
BEN Yanqi, YI Wu, LI Huabing, HUANG Xiaohu, LIU Wei, XIAO Yuhuang. Preliminary analysis on rainfall thresholds for early warning of the rainfall induced landslides based on “step” deformation characteristics[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2023, 34(4): 30-38. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202208008
Citation: BEN Yanqi, YI Wu, LI Huabing, HUANG Xiaohu, LIU Wei, XIAO Yuhuang. Preliminary analysis on rainfall thresholds for early warning of the rainfall induced landslides based on “step” deformation characteristics[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2023, 34(4): 30-38. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202208008
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基于“阶跃”变形特征的降雨型滑坡预警判据探讨

  • 1.

    三峡大学湖北长江三峡滑坡国家野外科学观测研究站，湖北 宜昌　443002

  • 2.

    十堰市自然资源和规划局地质勘查与灾害防治科（地灾防治中心），湖北 十堰　442000

  • 3.

    湖北省地质环境总站，湖北 武汉　430034

  • 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（42007237）；十堰市滑坡地质灾害精细化预警模型及预警阈值研究（HBDX21-008）
详细信息
    作者简介: 贲琰棋（1998-），男，湖北襄阳人，硕士研究生，主要从事滑坡监测预警工作。E-mail：70341652@qq.com
    通讯作者: 易　武（1966-），男，湖北黄冈人，地质资源与地质工程专业，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要从事边坡稳定性及其预测预报方面研究。E-mail：397745802@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: P642.22

Preliminary analysis on rainfall thresholds for early warning of the rainfall induced landslides based on “step” deformation characteristics

  • 1.

    National Field Observation and Research Station of Landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Yangtze River, Yichang, Hubei　443002, China

  • 2.

    Shiyan Natural Resources and Planning Bureau Geological Exploration and Disaster Prevention Section （Geological Disaster Prevention and Control Center）, Shiyan, Hubei　442000, China

  • 3.

    Hubei Provincial Geological Environment Station, Wuhan, Hubei　430034, China

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    摘要

  • 由于滑坡灾害的发生具有随机性和复杂性，经常给人们生活造成严重的经济损失，甚至威胁生命安全，故建立滑坡预警判据及模型是减小损失的重要手段。文章首先确定了有效降雨量-变形速率-改进切线角为降雨型阶跃滑坡的预警关键判据。然后运用斜率单变点法确定滑坡“阶跃”变形曲线上的“破坏拐点”和“稳定拐点”并提取变形加速区间的详细信息，以此求解有效降雨量-变形速率-改进切线角综合预警判据阈值。最后，结合麻池村1号滑坡各发展阶段宏观变形特征，将时空演化规律有机结合，建立了4级递进式综合判据分级预警模型。结果表明：麻池村1号滑坡的运移形式为牵引式，在降雨因素的激发下，累计位移曲线呈典型的“阶跃”变形特征；麻池村1号滑坡变形受前期降雨影响，前期降雨与当期降雨组成一个降雨过程的时间间隔阈值为10 d，“前期+当期降雨”模式下对应的降雨阈值分别为24 mm、32 mm；基于监测数据精细化分析以及改进切线角法获取的麻池村1号滑坡的位移速率阈值为 12 mm/d。研究可为此类型滑坡灾害的预警提供理论基础和技术指导。

    Since the occurrence of landslide disasters is random and complex, which often causes serious economic losses to people's lives and even threatens life safety, establishing landslide early warning criteria and models is an important means to reduce losses. In this paper, the effective rainfall-deformation rate-improved tangent angle is determined as the key criterion for the early warning of rainfall-type step landslide. Then, the slope single-variable point method is applied to determine the “damage inflection point” and “stability inflection point” on the landslide “step” deformation curve to extract detailed information of the deformation acceleration interval, so as to solve the effective The threshold value of rainfall-deformation rate-improved tangent angle integrated warning criterion. Finally, a 4-stage progressive integrated warning model was established by combining the macroscopic deformation characteristics of the landslide at each stage of development and the spatial and temporal evolution laws. The results show that the transport form of landslide No. 1 in Machi Village is traction type, and the cumulative displacement curve shows typical “step” deformation characteristics under the excitation of rainfall factors. The deformation of landslide No. 1 in Machi village is affected by the early rainfall, and the time interval threshold between the early rainfall and the current rainfall is 10 d, and the corresponding rainfall thresholds in the “early + current rainfall” mode are 24 mm and 32 mm respectively. The study can provide theoretical basis and technical guidance for early warning of this type of landslide hazard.

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  • 图 1  “阶跃型”滑坡位移曲线变形阶段划分

    Figure 1. 

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图 2  麻池村1号滑坡全貌图（镜向235°）

    Figure 2. 

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图 3  麻池村1号滑坡工程地质平面图

    Figure 3. 

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    图 4  麻池村1号滑坡1-1’剖面布置图

    Figure 4. 

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    图 5  麻池村1号滑坡累计位移-降雨量-时间关系图

    Figure 5. 

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    图 6  麻池村1号滑坡7次阶跃变形区间图

    Figure 6. 

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    图 7  有效降雨—改进切线角—位移速率判据曲线变化特征图

    Figure 7. 

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    图 8  滑坡综合预警判据分级模型

    Figure 8. 

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    表 1  G6监测点破坏拐点与稳定拐点详细信息表

    Table 1.  Detailed information table on the damage inflection point and stable inflection point of monitoring point G6

    变形区间破坏拐点稳定拐点变形期次区间天数/d起始位移/mm结束位移/mm位移增量/mm位移速率/（mm·d−1）
    T12020-07-202020-07-30[416,426]1131.2842.2610.981.00
    T22020-08-212020-08-30[448,456]1053.1170.3017.191.72
    T32020-10-032020-10-11[490,498]979.2092.5513.361.48
    T42021-06-252021-06-30[756,761]6124.59133.238.641.44
    T52021-08-132021-08-20[805,812]8172.65211.8239.174.90
    T62021-08-262021-09-06[818,829]12213.47538.06324.5927.05
    T72021-09-192021-09-25[842,848]7561.99889.01327.0246.72
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 2  一次独立降雨位移回落时间

    Table 2.  Summary for single independent rainfall-induced displacement pullback time

    降雨日期降雨量/mm回落时间/d
    2021-08-1345.89
    2021-09-2818.110
    2021-10-1526.711
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 3  G6监测点“前期降雨+当期降雨”模式详细信息表

    Table 3.  Detailed information table on the “pre-rainfall + current rainfall” pattern details table for monitoring point G6

    变形期次降雨日期当期降雨/mm前期降雨/mm
    T1=[416,426]2020-07-2129.223.41
    2020-07-2235.141.44
    T2=[448,456]2020-08-2119.837.42
    T3=[490,498]2020-10-0322.921.92
    T4=[756,761]2021-06-259.87.80
    2021-06-2645.011.15
    2021-06-2710.144.59
    T5=[805,812]2021-08-1345.813.50
    2021-08-2014.411.82
    T6=[818,829]2021-08-2634.716.46
    2021-08-2817.432.67
    2021-08-2978.737.55
    T7=[842,848]2021-09-1949.55.82
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 4  改进切线角—变形速率（G6）阈值及变形过程综合预警判据统计表

    Table 4.  Statistical table of the threshold for improved tangent angle-deformation rate (G6) and comprehensive early warning criteria for deformation process

    变形阶段改进切线
    角阈值/（°）    		位移速率
    /（mm·d−1）    		预警级别
    初始变形阶段α<45v<12
    等速变形阶段α≈45v≈12注意级别（Ⅰ）
    加速
    变形
    阶段    		初加速阶段45<α<8012<v<68.06警示级别（Ⅱ）
    中加速阶段80≤α<8568.06≤v<137.16警戒级别（Ⅲ）
    加加速阶段
    （临滑）    		85≤α≤90v≥137.16警报级别（Ⅳ）
    下载: 导出CSV
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收稿日期:  2022-08-03
修回日期:  2022-11-08
刊出日期:  2023-08-25

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