Determination of regional landslide rainfall warning threshold based on susceptibility zoning: A case study in Longling County of Yunnan Province
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摘要:
滑坡所处不同易发等级的区域，降雨预警阈值差别较大。为提高滑坡降雨预警的针对性和准确率，文章以野外地质调查和滑坡易发条件分析为基础，结合信息量模型和层次分析法开展滑坡易发性评价，再通过滑坡发生概率与前期累计降雨量的相关性分析，分区进行滑坡降雨预警阈值模型研究。结果表明：坡度、高程、距断层距离、工程地质岩组、水系是龙陵县滑坡的主要孕灾地质条件；龙陵县滑坡非易发区面积为14.33 km2，低易发区面积为1053.87 km2，中易发区面积为1471.65 km2，高易发区面积为254.73 km2；确定单日和前3日为降雨预警时间，分区分时细化了降雨预警阈值模型；对比降雨预警阈值模型应用于龙陵县滑坡监测预警中的前后，预警信息减少了70条，预警准确率提高了14.4%，并实现了镇安镇户帕村施家寨组滑坡的有效预警。文章为区域滑坡降雨预警阈值确定提供了一种较好的参考方法。
Abstract:Areas with different levels of susceptibility to landslides, rainfall warning thresholds vary widely, to improve the pertinence and accuracy of landslide monitoring and early warning. Based on field geological survey and landslide susceptibility condition analysis, this paper combines information quantity model and analytic hierarchy method to carry out susceptibility evaluation, and then analyzes the correlation between landslide occurrence probability and cumulative rainfall, and conducts landslide rainfall early warning threshold model research by zoning. The results showed that: Slope, elevation, geological structure, engineering rock group and water system are the main geological conditions of landslides in Longling County; The area of non-prone areas in Longling County was 14.33 km2, the area of low prone area was 1053.87 km2, the area of medium prone area was 1471.65 km2, and the area of high prone area was 254.73 km2; The rainfall warning time was determined for a single day and the previous 3 days, and the rainfall warning threshold was refined by district; Compared with the rainfall warning threshold model applied to the landslide monitoring and early warning in Longling County, the number of early warning information decreased by 70, the accuracy of early warning was increased by 14.4%, and the effective early warning of landslide in Shijiazhai Formation of Huba Village, Zhen’an Town was realized. This paper provides a good reference method for determining the regional landslide rainfall warning threshold.
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表 1 不同孕灾地质环境条件的信息量
Table 1. Information of different disaster-induced geological environmental conditions
孕灾地质条件 分类区间 信息量 坡度/（°） [0, 8) −0.11678 [8, 16) 0.09139 [16, 21) 0.24305 [24, 32) 0.22223 [32, 90] −0.17598 高程/m [540, 1000) −1.87118 [1000, 1500) −0.01276 [1500, 2000) 0.36376 [2000, 2500) −0.35401 [2500, 3001] −0.92529 距断层距离/m [0,500) 0.55638 [500, 1000) 0.33742 [1000, 1500) −0.08659 [1500, 2000) −0.00810 [2000, 25805] −0.11811 工程地质岩组 松散岩土 −0.40000 较硬-硬层状碎屑岩 0.24766 硬质层状碳酸盐岩 −0.30988 岩浆岩 −0.16451 变质岩 0.17583 距水系距离/m [0,200) 0.03817 [200, 400) 0.23206 [400, 600) −0.16629 [600,800) −0.01517 [800, 6134] −0.05321 
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表 2 龙陵县滑坡灾害地质环境条件权重统计表
Table 2. Statistics of weights of geological and environmental conditions of landslide disaster in Longling County
地质环境条件 坡度 高程 距断层距离 工程地质岩组 距水系距离 权重 0.186 0.142 0.315 0.259 0.098
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表 3 不同等级的易发区划与实际滑坡分布对比
Table 3. Comparison of the prone zoning of different grades with the actual landslide distribution
易发分区 灾点数量/个 灾点比例/% 面积/km2 面积比例/% 灾点密度/km2 滑坡面积/km2 占总滑坡面积比例/% 非易发区 0 0 14.33 0.51 0 0 0 低易发区 16 12.12 1053.87 37.46 0.02 0.13 6.11 中易发区 70 53.03 1471.65 52.96 0.05 0.98 46.71 高易发区 46 34.84 254.73 9.10 0.18 0.99 47.18
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表 4 累计降雨量和滑坡相关性分析
Table 4. Correlation analysis of different times and landslides in the previous period
累计降雨量 相关系数 累计降雨量 相关系数 前1 d 0.819 前5 d 0.524 前2 d 0.785 前6 d 0.412 前3 d 0.808 前7 d 0.316 前4 d 0.615 前8 d 0.213
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表 5 相关系数与相关强度对照表[16]
Table 5. Comparison of correlation coefficient and correlation intensity
相关系数的值 直线相关程度 |r|=0 完全不相关 |r|≤0.3 微弱相关 0.3<|r|≤0.5 低度相关 0.5<|r|≤0.8 显著相关 0.8<|r|＜1 高度相关 |r|=1 完全相关
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表 6 龙陵县滑坡四色预警降雨阈值
Table 6. Landslide four-color warning rainfall threshold of Longling County
易发分区 降雨时段 不同等级预警阈值/mm 蓝色 黄色 橙色 红色 低易发区 单日 47.2 71.3 89.7 108.6 前3 d 38.9 57.3 66.9 79.3 中易发区 单日 41.9 63.8 77.1 95.3 前3 d 35.1 48.5 55.6 66.9 高易发区 单日 36.7 54.2 67.3 87.6 前3 d 27.1 44.1 51.1 61.9
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