Application of effective rainfall in assessing water damage risk to highways in Liaoning Province
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摘要:
文章利用2017—2021年辽宁省降水诱发的高速公路、干线公路损毁记录数据，分析损毁事故发生的时间、空间特征，计算事故发生前有效雨量，并建立公路水毁概率拟合模型。结果表明：降水诱发的辽宁省公路损毁事件一般出现在5—10月，其中7—8月为高发期。公路水毁的发生时间呈现出从西北向东南逐渐延后的规律，事故数量与降水量有较高相关性。辽宁东部、西部为高发区域，丹东、朝阳、葫芦岛、本溪为省内高发地区。对比多种方法，公路水毁概率的拟合效果符合高斯分布概率密度函数。辽宁东部、南部致灾临界雨量值大于中部、北部，相同有效雨量条件下，平原地区发生公路水毁的风险高于山地丘陵地区。对2022年辽宁一次洪涝过程中公路水毁情况进行检验，综合评价结果具有较强的防汛指导作用。
Abstract:This paper utilizes data on the records of damage to expressways and main roads caused by precipitation in Liaoning Province from 2017 to 2021. It analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of damage accidents, calculates the effective rainfall before the occurrence of accidents, and establishes a probability fitting model for road water damage. The results show that precipitation-induced road damage events in Liaoning Province generally occur from May to October, with a peak in July and August. The occurrence of road water damage follows a pattern of gradually delaying from northwest to southeast, and the number of accidents is highly correlated with precipitation. The eastern and western parts of Liaoning are high-incidence areas, with Dandong, Chaoyang, Huludao, and Benxi being the high-incidence areas within the province. Among various methods compared, the fitting effect of the road water damage probability conforms to the Gaussian distribution probability density function. The critical rainfall threshold for disaster in the eastern and southern parts of Liaoning is higher than that in the central and northern parts. Under the same effective rainfall conditions, the risk of road water damage in plain areas is higher than in mountainous and hilly areas. The road water damage situation during a flooding process in Liaoning in 2022 is used for verification, indicating a strong role in flood control guidance.
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Key words:
- road water damage /
- critical rainfall /
- risk assessment /
- Liaoning Province
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表 1 高斯拟合方程参数表
Table 1. Parameters of probability fitting equation for each region
参数 东部 南部 中部 西部 北部 u 3.159 3.193 3.076 3.082 3.081 
0.367 0.465 0.316 0.366 0.272 
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表 2 三种拟合方法的确定系数
Table 2. Determination coefficients of three fitting methods
分区 高斯拟合 二次多项式 三次多项式 辽宁东部 0.970 0.566 0.810 辽宁南部 0.671 0.554 0.643 辽宁中部 0.769 0.733 0.735 辽宁西部 0.886 0.496 0.679 辽宁北部 0.881 0.455 0.572
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表 3 降水风险等级及致灾概率对应临界雨量
Table 3. Corresponding critical rainfall for precipitation risk levels and disaster probability
/mm 分区 较低风险（20%） 中等风险（40%） 较高风险（60%） 极高风险（80%） 东部 66.0 88.4 111.9 144.7 南部 61.7 89.5 120.3 165.3 中部 62.3 80.5 99.2 124.8 西部 59.2 79.8 101.6 132.1 北部 64.9 80.8 96.7 118.0
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表 4 公路水毁点位数量及所在风险区
Table 4. Statistics of highway flood damage points and risk levels
日期 27日 28日 29日 30日 低风险 — — 1 — 较低风险 — — 3 — 中等风险 — 1 3 1 较高风险 — 2 24 1 极高风险 — — 12 —
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