Landslide geological hazard assessment based on the I-CF model of Dege County in Sichuan Province
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摘要:
文章以德格县为研究区，以7 m DEM进行地形分析处理，并结合相关调查数据建立了德格县滑坡灾害数据库，通过选取的地震峰值加速度、断裂带、水系、坡度、坡向、高程、岩性等7个指标，在GIS技术支持下，利用信息量模型（I）、层次分析法模型（AHP）、确定性系数模型（CF）相互耦合对研究区灾害敏感性评价，再分析得到活动频率因素对研究区全县域进行危险性评价，将得到的结果分成4个区域，分别为高危险区、较高危险区、中危险区、低危险区，其中高、较高危险区占总面积2.23%。其中，滑坡灾害占总灾害的42%。评价结果与实际调查结果符合程度较高，能够为该地域未进行实地调查的地方进行相关滑坡灾害的预测预报，并对安全防治提供技术支持，亦可以为其他地区滑坡灾害危险性评价提供理论指导和技术参考。
Abstract:This study focuses on Dege County as the research area, and carries out terrain analysis and processing with 7m DEM. A landslide hazard database for Dege County is establishing using relevant survey data. With the support of GIS technology, this research employs the information quantity model (I), analytic hierarchy process model (AHP), and deterministic coefficient model (CF) coupling to evaluate the hazard sensitivity within the study area based on seven selected indicators: mic peak acceleration, fault zone, water system, slope, slope direction, elevation, and lithology. Subsequently, an assessment of hazard is conducted for the entire county domain by considering factors related to landslide activity frequency. The results are categorized into four zones: high risk, relatively high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The high and relatively high-risk zones collectively cover 2.23% of the total area, with landslides accounting for 42% of the overall hazards. The evaluation results align well with the actual survey findings, providing technical support for predicting, forecasting, and implementing safety measures against landslide disasters in areas that without field investigation. Furthermore, it can serve as a theoretical guide and technical reference for the risk assessment of landslide hazard in other regions.
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Key words:
- landslide /
- GIS /
- hazard assessment /
- certainty factor method /
- Dege County
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表 1 地质灾害隐患点分布表
Table 1. Distribution table of geological hazards hidden danger points
序号 乡镇 滑坡/处 崩塌/处 泥石流/处 合计 面积/
km2每百平方公里
灾害数/处1 阿须镇 5 1 6 12 365.19 3.29 2 八帮乡 8 1 4 13 562.71 2.31 3 白垭乡 8 6 4 18 200.69 8.97 4 错阿镇 0 0 2 2 498.33 0.40 5 打滚镇 3 3 4 10 461.77 2.17 6 俄南乡 3 0 6 9 299.07 3.01 7 俄支乡 8 0 16 24 439.17 5.46 8 更庆镇 58 13 14 85 427.51 19.88 9 龚垭乡 10 9 2 21 267.66 7.85 10 卡松渡乡 4 1 7 12 299.67 4.00 11 柯洛洞乡 8 2 5 15 963.76 1.56 12 浪多乡 3 0 4 7 619.74 1.13 13 马尼干戈镇 3 0 2 5 1075.43 0.46 14 麦宿镇 11 1 16 28 584.16 4.79 15 年古乡 10 0 3 13 397.21 3.27 16 然姑乡 3 0 1 4 481.87 0.83 17 汪布顶乡 25 21 4 50 226.63 22.06 18 温拖乡 7 0 12 19 274.14 6.93 19 亚丁乡 0 1 6 7 607.54 1.15 20 玉隆乡 2 0 3 5 202.83 2.47 21 岳巴乡 11 1 1 13 605.36 2.15 22 中扎科乡 4 0 11 15 447.74 3.35 23 竹庆镇 1 0 0 1 1131.09 0.09 
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表 2 使用数据详情表
Table 2. Data utilization details table
数据名称 数据精度（比例尺） 高分一号（GF1）高精度遥感影像 0.5 m 德格县DEM 7 m 德格县地形数据图 1∶50000 德格县地质数据图 1∶10 000 甘孜州年均降雨量数据 − 地震峰值加速度分布图 −
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表 3 指标分级敏感性量化值
Table 3. Quantitative sensitivity values for indicator classification
指标 指标分级 灾害点个数 分区面积/km2 信息量 信息量归一化 地震峰值加速度/g 0.10 6 1131.6443 −1.317042484 0 0.15 30 1004.5774 −0.395084795 0.592148498 0.20 207 1997.8012 0.239927923 1 0.30 12 7304.9769 −0.743000070 0.368691923 地震断裂带缓冲区/m [0,5000) 52 3625.0082 −0.440847835 0 [5000，10000) 64 2940.5943 −0.023963605 0.34370709 [10000，15000) 87 1803.2948 0.772057694 1 [15000,56037) 52 3070.1025 −0.274702222 0.136981495 水系缓冲区/m [0,300) 170 1299.6380 1.76947768 1 [300,600) 27 1285.4982 −0.059544488 0.41368016 [600,900) 14 1239.9860 −0.680277809 0.214695004 [900,6924) 44 7613.8776 −1.35001793 0 坡度/（°） [0,14) 69 5075.3157 −0.494517212 0 [14,25) 92 3495.4392 0.166094562 0.551272903 [25,35) 56 2024.9770 0.215558335 0.592549851 [35,90) 38 843.2679 0.703821706 1 坡向 阴坡 67 2730.6483 0.095918567 0.892332366 半阴坡 50 2961.6391 −0.277954847 0 阳坡 63 2824.8389 0.000448382 0.664471457 半阳坡 75 2921.8690 0.141029635 1 高程/m [2980,3800) 59 1304.6405 0.707374888 1 [3800,4200) 67 3609.7618 −0.183184166 0.245339931 [4200,4600) 94 4005.7085 0.051339327 0.444075225 [4600,6 168) 35 2518.8890 −0.472704846 0 岩性 坚硬岩 31 2728.6819 −0.674066445 0.150627096 较硬岩 24 2558.4692 −0.865590279 0 较软岩 190 5679.5360 0.405919554 1 松散岩 10 472.3128 −0.051536121 0.640226396
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表 4 判断矩阵及权重
Table 4. Decision matrix and weight
断层 水系 高程 坡度 坡向 岩性 峰值加速度 权重 峰值加速度 1 1/2 1/3 1/2 1 1/2 1/2 0.0734 距断层距离 1 1 1 2 2 1 0.1705 距水系距离 1 1 2 2 1/2 0.1681 坡度 1 4 3 2 0.2214 坡向 1 1/3 1 0.0655 高程 1 1/2 0.1190 岩性 1 0.1821
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表 5 CF值及权重
Table 5. CF values and weights
指标 CFmax CFmin 权重 峰值加速度 0.8027 −0.9278 1.7305 距断层距离 0.5502 −0.3616 0.9119 距水系距离 0.8484 −0.745 1.5935 坡度 0.5168 −0.3955 0.9123 坡向 0.1345 −0.2468 0.3813 高程 1.0773 −0.3819 1.4593 岩性 0.3412 −0.5846 0.9259
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表 6 各危险区栅格统计表
Table 6. Grid statistics for various hazardous zones
危险性
等级面积/km2 面积
比例/%灾害
数量/个灾害密度/
（个·km−2）低 9525.590645 83.27 95 0.0100 中 1646.354741 14.39 56 0.0340 较高 251.629077 2.20 49 0.1947 高 15.425537 0.13 55 3.5655
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