Study on warning rainfall threshold for rainfall-induced collapses and landslide geological hazards in Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province
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摘要:
珠海市雨量充沛，常诱发崩塌、滑坡等突发性地质灾害。文章对珠海市2013—2021年发生的342个崩塌、滑坡地质灾害数据以及特征雨量进行综合分析，总结出珠海市崩塌、滑坡灾害发生与当日降雨量和前4天累计降雨量密切相关，属典型的降雨型崩塌滑坡；通过分析研究灾害发生与降雨的关系，建立了基于有效降雨量阈值的E-D预警模型，并基于2021—2023年珠海市发生的153个崩塌、滑坡地质灾害数据进行预警效果检验，预警准确率为91.5%；以2022年5月12日为例进行单次预警检验，预警命中率为94.7%，漏报率为5.3%，一、二、三级预警区的空报率为16.2%。据此证明建立的E-D预警雨量阈值模型适合珠海实际，可为预警系统的阈值模型改进提供技术依据，也为类似花岗岩地区崩塌、滑坡地质灾害预警技术研究提供借鉴方法。
Abstract:Zhuhai City experiences abundant rainfall, which often triggers sudden geological hazards such as landslides and collapses．This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of 342 landslide and collapse events that occurred in Zhuhai City between 2013 and 2021, along with their associated rainfall characteristics. The study concludes that the occurrence of landslides and collapses in Zhuhai City is closely related to the daily rainfall and the cumulative rainfall over of the previous four days, classifying these events as typical rainfall-induced collapses and landslides．By analyzing the relationship between hazard occurrence and rainfall, an E-D early warning model based on effective rainfall thresholds was established. The model was tested using 153 collapse and landslide geological disasters from 2021 to 2023 in Zhuhai, resulting in an early warning accuracy of 91.5%．A single early warning test on May 12, 2022, showed a hit rate of 94.7%, a missed report rate of 5.3%, and a false alarm rate of 16.2% for the first, second, and third-level warning zones. The E-D early warning rainfall threshold model established in this study is suitable for the actual conditions in Zhuhai and can provide technical support for improving threshold models in early warning systems. It also offers a reference method for studying early warning techniques for collapse and landslide hazards in similar granite regions．
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表 1 崩塌、滑坡灾害数量与月均降雨量关系表
Table 1. Relationship between the number of collapses and landslide hazards and average monthly rainfall
月份 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 平均降雨量/mm 26.9 57.9 84.7 199.6 298.1 390.0 319.3 336.7 220.8 71.7 44.3 30.6 地质灾害数量/个 1 0 5 15 162 56 14 61 24 3 1 0 
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表 2 地质灾害数量与当日降雨量关系表
Table 2. Relationship between the number of geological hazards and daily rainfall
当日降雨量/mm 0 0.1～9.9 10.0～24.9 25.0～49.9 50.0～99.9 100.0～249.9 ≥250 降雨量等级 无雨 小雨 中雨 大雨 暴雨 大暴雨 特大暴雨 地质灾害数量/个 1 2 13 64 68 106 88 灾害数量占比/% 0.3 0.6 3.8 18.7 19.9 31.0 25.7
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表 3 崩塌、滑坡灾害数量与前4天累计降雨量关系
Table 3. Relationship between the number of collapse and landslide hazards and cumulative rainfall over the previous four days
前4天累计降雨量/mm 0～50 50～100 100～150 150～200 200～250 250～300 300～350 ≥350 地质灾害数量/个 8 27 18 3 2 4 16 2 灾害数量占比/% 10.0 33.7 22.5 3.8 2.5 5.0 20.0 2.5
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表 4 不同概率的有效降雨量阈值
Table 4. Effective rainfall thresholds for different probabilities
发生概率/% 10 15 30 55 75 90 阈值模型 E =59.37D−0.185 E =81.51D−0.185 E= 147.95D−0.185 E=258.67D−0.185 E= 347.25D−0.185 E=413.65D−0.185 有效降雨量阈值/mm 59.37 81.51 147.95 258.67 347.25 413.65
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表 5 不同易发程度分区各预警等级的有效降雨量阈值
Table 5. Effective rainfall thresholds for different early warning levels in various susceptibility zones
/mm 易发程度 预警级别 四级预警 三级预警 二级预警 一级预警 高易发区 59.37 147.95 258.67 347.25 中易发区 59.37 258.67 347.25 413.65 低易发区 81.51 347.25 413.65 —
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表 6 地质灾害预警准确率计算表
Table 6. Accuracy calculation table for geological hazard early warnings
预警等级 无预警 落入四级预警区 落入三级预警区 落入二级预警区 落入一级预警区 合计 高易发区 地灾点数量/个 8 13 25 12 16 74 占比/% 10.8 17.6 33.8 16.2 21.6 100 中易发区 地灾点数量/个 5 22 8 21 10 66 占比/% 7.6 33.3 12.1 31.8 15.2 100 低易发区 地灾点数量/个 0 10 2 1 0 13 占比/% 0 76.9 15.4 7.7 0 100 合计 地灾点数量/个 13 45 35 34 26 153 占比/% 8.5 29.4 22.9 22.2 17.0 100
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表 7 2022年5月12日暴雨引发地质灾害预警准确率
Table 7. Accuracy of geological hazard Early warning triggered by rainstorm on May 12，2022
预警等级 预警区外 落入四级预警区 落入三级预警区 落入二级预警区 落入一级预警区 合计 地灾点数量/个 2.0 0 2.00 22.00 12.00 38.00 占比/% 5.3 0 5.30 57.90 31.50 100.00 发布预警区面积/km2 — 418.86 73.94 112.97 64.70 670.47 有灾点的预警区面积/km2 — 0 37.20 108.92 64.70 210.82
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表 8 2022年5月12日暴雨引发地质灾害命中率
Table 8. Hit rate of geological hazards triggered by rainstorm on May 12， 2022
预警等级 四级预警区 三级预警区 二级预警区 一级预警区 合计 网格单元数量/个 418 74 113 65 670 有地灾点的网格单元数量/个 0 2 22 12 36 占比（命中率）/% 0 2.7 19.5 18.5 5.4 无地灾点的网格单元数量/个 418 72 91 53 634 占比（空报率）/% 0 97.3 80.5 81.5 94.6
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