Analysis and resource evaluation of hydrocarbon plays in the west Natuna Basin, southwestern part of the South China Sea
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摘要:
为明确南海西南部西纳土纳盆地油气资源潜力，基于最新的地震、测井、地化和油气藏储量等数据，结合盆地构造—沉积演化和油气成藏地质条件的综合研究成果，从盆地含油气系统、成藏组合特征研究等方面开展系统的描述、刻画和分析，从而预测盆地资源潜力和评价地质风险，优选勘探有利区。研究表明，西纳土纳盆地发育4套含油气系统，分别对其中6个具有商业油气价值的已证实和远景成藏组合采用蒙特卡洛模拟法和资源面积丰度类比法计算待发现资源量，最终预测盆地待发现油气总资源量890.16MMboe，其中Penyu次盆Penyu组成藏组合内资源量(587.22MMboe)，占全盆地总资源量的66%。参考烃源岩、储集层、圈闭、运移、盖层和保存等成藏要素的评价结果，应用资源—地质风险概率双因素法优选出1个Ⅰ类成藏组合，1个Ⅱ类成藏组合，2个Ⅲ类成藏组合和2个Ⅳ成藏组合。应用成藏组合范围叠合法，综合分析认为Anambas地堑西北部Arang组构造—地层成藏组合是盆地最有利勘探区。首次应用的盆地演化—含油气系统—成藏组合递进研究思路和成藏组合评价方法对东南亚陆内裂谷盆地油气资源潜力研究具借鉴作用。
Abstract:Based on the latest exploration data, through study of basin evolution and analysis of hydrocarbon accumulation, the petroleum systems and hydrocarbon plays of the west Natuna Basin are identified, described and analyzed in this paper. The purpose of the endeavor is to assess the petroleum resources potential and geological risks so as to optimize the favorable exploration targets. The results suggest that the west Natuna Basin can be subdivided into 4 petroleum systems and 9 plays, of which 6 have exploration potential, and the undiscovered petroleum resources of the 6 plays are estimated as 890.16 MMboe in total by the Monte Carlo method and resource abundance analogy method. The undiscovered petroleum resources of the Penyu Formation play in the Penyu Sub-basin are up to 587.22 MMboe, accounting for 66% of the total of the basin. Upon the analysis of hydrocarbon accumulation factors using double factors method for resources-geological risks assessment, identified are plays including one class Ⅰ play, one class Ⅱ play, two classe Ⅲ plays and two class Ⅳ plays. Favorable exploration areas can be further optimized with the 'plays area overlaying' method. The stratigraphic-structural play in Arang Formation in the northwestern part of the Anambas Graben is finally selected as the most favorable area of class I. The progressive research method of resource assessment and division of hydrocarbon plays can guide the petroleum resources assessment in intracratonic rift basins of Southeast Asia.
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表 1 西纳土纳盆地各成藏组合油气可采储量概况(数据引自文献[30, 35])
Table 1. Overview of petroleum recoverable reserves of plays in the west Natuna Basin
地理位置 成藏组合 类型 勘探程度 油气藏数/个 可采储量/MMboe 可采储量占比/% 油气藏类型 代表性油气藏 油气藏最大可采储量/MMboe Anambas地堑 & NB地堑 Belut组反转构造 已证实 成熟 3 24.98 1.8 挤压背斜、断背斜 Forel油藏 14.5 Gabus组反转构造 中等 14 601.33 44.3 挤压背斜、断背斜 Belanak油藏 161.37 Arang组构造—地层 中等 8 155.82 11.5 构造—地层 Tembang气藏 41.98 Arang组反转构造 远景 成熟 3 58.39 1.8 挤压背斜、断背斜和断块 Kerisi气藏 45.42 Belut组地层 低 0 0 0 冲积扇砂体 - 0 Gabus-Arang组地层 较低 0 0 0 河流下切谷砂体 - 0 Penyu次盆 Gabus-Arang组披覆构造 已证实 成熟 2 455.7 33.6 披覆背斜 Belida油藏 422 Penyu组披覆构造 中等 6 61.78 4.5 披覆背斜、断背斜 Bertam 1油藏 21 Penyu组地层 远景 低 0 0 0 冲积扇砂体 - 0 
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表 2 西纳土纳盆地已证实成藏组合蒙特卡洛模拟参数及待发现油气资源量(数据来自文献[30])
Table 2. Modelling parameters of the Monte Carlo method and undiscovered recoverable resources of the proven plays in the west Natuna Basin
地理位置 成藏组合 待发现油藏个数 待发现油藏规模/MMbbl 待发现气藏个数 待发现气藏规模/Bcf 地理位置 成藏组合 待发现石油资源量/MMbbl 待发现天然气资源量/Bcf 待发现凝析油资源量/MMbngl 最小值 众值 最大值 最小值 中值 最大值 最小值 众值 最大值 最小值 中值 最大值 F95 F50 F5 均值 F95 F50 F5 均值 F95 F50 F5 均值 Anambas地堑 & NB地堑 Gabus组反转构造 1 2 5 4 5.96 13.65 2 3 4 24 39.78 52.86 Anambas地堑 & NB地堑 Gabus组反转构造 7.11 16.35 27.1 16.63 95.23 182.12 315.08 190.77 Arang组构造—地层 4 8 16 24 39.78 67.56 Arang组构造—地层 222.99 367.80 561.60 378.74 Arang组反转构造 1 2 3 24 28.94 165.3 Arang组反转构造 36.82 81.66 144.1 86.66 0.755 2.66 6.3 2.99 Penyu次盆 Penyu组披覆构造 6 15 32 4 19.22 106.24 Penyu次盆 Penyu组披覆构造 89.81 202.3 357.78 210.87 1.81 7.14 16.59 7.89 注：F95—概率大于95%的值；F50—概率大于50%的值；F5—概率大于5%的值；MMbbl为百万桶；Bcf为10亿立方英尺
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表 3 西纳土纳盆地成藏组合内待发现油气资源量评价结果
Table 3. Undiscovered recoverable resources of hydrocarbon plays in the west Natuna Basin
地理位置 成藏组合 类型 发现油气藏数/个 勘探程度 评价方法 待发现油气资源量(均值) 总/MMboe 石油/MMbbl 天然气/Bcfg 凝析油/MMbngl Anambas地堑 & NB地堑 Gabus组反转构造 已证实 14 高 蒙特卡洛模拟 54.95 16.63 190.77 6.51 Arang组构造—地层 8 中 蒙特卡洛模拟 63.12 0 378.74 0 Arang组反转构造 3 高 蒙特卡洛模拟 17.43 0 86.66 2.99 Belut组地层 远景 0 低 资源丰度类比 167.45 54.03 574.75 17.63 Penyu次盆 Penyu组披覆构造 已证实 6 中 蒙特卡洛模拟 212.25 210.93 7.89 0 Penyu地层 远景 0 低 资源丰度类比 374.97 363.54 68.58 0
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表 4 西纳土纳盆地成藏组合地质风险评价及优选结果
Table 4. Geological risks and evaluation of hydrocarbon plays in the west Natuna Basin
地理位置 成藏组合 地质条件概率 地质风险概率(Pr) 综合评价结果与分类 烃源岩(Ps) 储集层(Pre) 圈闭(Pt) 运移(Pm) 盖层和保存(Pp) 综合评价 分类结果 Anambas地堑 & NB地堑 Gabus组反转构造 0.9 0.9 0.95 1 1 0.23 低资源潜力-低风险，不宜勘探 Ⅳ Arang组构造-地层 0.95 1 0.9 0.95 0.9 0.27 中资源潜力-低风险，优选勘探 Ⅰ Arang组反转构造 0.8 0.95 0.8 0.9 0.95 0.48 低资源潜力-中风险，不宜勘探 Ⅳ Belut组地层 1 0.8 0.75 0.8 0.8 0.62 高资源潜力-高风险，须长远规划 Ⅲ Penyu次盆 Penyu组披覆构造 0.9 0.85 0.85 0.95 1 0.38 中资源潜力-中风险，可兼探 Ⅱ Penyu组地层 1 0.7 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.71 高资源潜力-高风险，须长远规划 Ⅲ 注：地质风险概率计算公式：Pr=1-Ps×Pre×Pt×Pm×Pp
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