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基于有效降雨量的“阶跃型”滑坡递进式预警模型研究

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贲琰棋, 易武, 黄晓虎, 魏兆亨, 肖宇煌, 邓欣雨. 2023. 基于有效降雨量的“阶跃型”滑坡递进式预警模型研究. 华南地质, 39(3): 492-501. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-0013.2023.03.008
引用本文: 贲琰棋, 易武, 黄晓虎, 魏兆亨, 肖宇煌, 邓欣雨. 2023. 基于有效降雨量的“阶跃型”滑坡递进式预警模型研究. 华南地质, 39(3): 492-501. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-0013.2023.03.008
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BEN Yan-Qi, YI Wu, HUANG Xiao-Hu, WEI Zhao-Heng, XIAO Yu-Huang, DENG Xin-Yu. 2023. Progressive Warning Model for 'Step-like' Landslides Based on Effective Rainfall. South China Geology, 39(3): 492-501. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-0013.2023.03.008
Citation: BEN Yan-Qi, YI Wu, HUANG Xiao-Hu, WEI Zhao-Heng, XIAO Yu-Huang, DENG Xin-Yu. 2023. Progressive Warning Model for "Step-like" Landslides Based on Effective Rainfall. South China Geology, 39(3): 492-501. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-0013.2023.03.008
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基于有效降雨量的“阶跃型”滑坡递进式预警模型研究

  • 1. 三峡大学湖北长江三峡滑坡国家野外科学观测研究站,湖北 宜昌 443002

  • 2.三峡大学土木与建筑学院,湖北宜昌 443002

  • 3. 湖北省地质环境总站,湖北 武汉 430034

  • 4. 三峡大学科技学院,湖北 宜昌 442002

  • 基金项目:

    国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42007237)；十堰市自然资源和规划局项目(HBDX21-008)

详细信息
    作者简介: 贲琰棋（1998—），男，硕士研究生，主要从事滑坡监测预警工作，E-mail：70341652@qq.com
    通讯作者: 易武（1966—），男，博士，教授，主要从事边坡稳定性及其预测预报方面研究，E-mail：397745802@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: P642.22

Progressive Warning Model for "Step-like" Landslides Based on Effective Rainfall

  • 1. National Field Observation and Research Station of Landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Yangtze River, Yichang 443002, Hubei, China

  • 2. Three Gorges University School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Yichang 443002, Hubei, China

  • 3. Hubei Provincial Geological Environment Station, Whuan 430034, Hubei, China

  • 4. College of Science and Technology of China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, Hubei, China

More Information
    Corresponding author: YI Wu

    摘要
  • 湖北省郧西县枣树洼滑坡是一处典型的降雨诱发型堆积层滑坡，在降雨作用下位移变形呈现出“阶跃型”的动态演化特征，其变形破坏严重影响着当地交通和居民的生命财产安全。本文初步探讨了“降雨阶跃型”滑坡的变形曲线特征，选取有效降雨量判据建立滑坡临灾预警线，进而探讨滑坡递进式预警原理，以期实现早期预警。通过分析滑坡活动对降雨的响应关系，并结合滑坡变形发展的规律，建立了滑坡的递进式综合预警模型。结果表明：①枣树洼滑坡变形与季节性降雨具较好的一致性，目前处于间歇性蠕变状态，整体呈现台阶状变形特征；②滑坡的前期有效降雨期为8 d，前期有效降雨量和当期降雨量分别为38 mm、29 mm；③基于前期有效降雨量和当期降雨量达到阈值时为Ⅲ级黄色预警中心线，将有效降雨量阈值和过程预警判据有机结合，即可构建枣树洼滑坡的分级递进式综合预警模型。
    The Zaoshuwa landslide in Yunxi County, Hubei Province is a typical rainfall-induced accumulation landslide, which exhibits a "step-like" dynamic evolution of displacement and deformation under the action of rainfall, and its deformation damage seriously affects the local traffic and safety of residents' lives and properties. To achieve early warning of landslides, this paper initially discusses the deformation curve characteristics of "rainfall step-like " landslides, selects the effective rainfall criterion to establish the early warning line of landslides, and then explores the principle of progressive landslide warning. By analysing the response of landslide activity to rainfall and combining the law of landslide deformation development, a comprehensive progressive warning model for landslides has been established. The results show that: ① the deformation of the Zaoshuwa landslide has good consistency with the seasonal rainfall, and is currently in the state of in termittent creep, with the overall step-like deformation characteristics; ② the early stage rainfall period of the landslide is 8 d, and the thresholds of the effective rainfall in the early stage and current stage are 38 mm and 29 mm respectively; ③ Setting the Ⅲ yellow warning centerline at when effective rainfall in the early stage and current stage reaches the threshold, combined with the effective rainfall threshold and the process of early warning criteria, a hierarchical progressive integrated early warning model of the Zaoshuwa landslide could be constructed.
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收稿日期:  2023-04-30
修回日期:  2023-05-22

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