Study on Landslides Risk Assessment of Typical Towns of Southeast Chongqing in Wuling Mountain Area: A Case of Xialu town, Shizhu County
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摘要: 武陵山渝东南地区地质条件复杂、降雨丰沛，加之城镇化开发，该地区的山区城镇面临着滑坡风险，迫切需要开展城镇尺度的地质灾害风险评价，从而更好地进行风险管控。本文以重庆市石柱县下路镇为研究区域，结合区内地质灾害特点，利用无限斜坡模型进行了不同重现期（10、20、50 和100 年）滑坡灾害的危险性计算；重点关注潜在的建筑物损失和室内人员的生命财产损失，采用经验模型，完成了区内不同情景下建筑物和人口易损性分布图；运用灾害风险量化评估模型，定量分析了区内滑坡灾害的经济风险和人口风险。结果显示，从重现期10 年至100 年演变中，建筑物风险将增加3 倍，而人口风险将增加约11 倍，空间分布从集镇建设区附近的山体进一步扩大至天泉村、白鹤村等地。本文探索的滑坡风险评估方法可为地方决策部门开展详细尺度的国土空间规划（短期、中期和长期）研究提供参考。Abstract: The complex geological conditions and abundant rainfall in the Wuling Mountain area, southeastern Chongqing city, coupled with urbanization development, have exposed the mountain towns in the region to landslide risks, and there is an urgent need to carry out urban-scale geohazard risk assessment for better risk management and control. In this paper, taking Xialu Town, Shizhu County, Chongqing City as the research area, combined with the characteristics of geohazards in the area, the infinite slope model was used to calculate the risk of landslide disasters with different recurrence periods (10, 20, 50, and 100 years); focusing on potential damage to buildings and the life and property loss of indoor people, an empirical model was used to complete the vulnerability distribution map of buildings and population in this area under different scenarios; the economic and demographic risks of landslide disasters in the area were quantitatively analyzed using a quantitative disaster risk assessment model. The results show that in the evolution from 10 to 100 years of the return period, the building risk will increase by three times, while the population risk will increase by about 11 times, and the spatial distribution will be further expanded from the mountains near the town construction area to the Tianquan Village, Baihe Village, and other places. The landslide risk assessment method explored in this study can be used as a reference for local decision-making departments to conduct detailed-scale research on land and spatial planning (short-term, medium-term, and long-term).
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