Assessment of the comprehensive disaster risk in rural areas based on multi-model comparison: A case study of Huayuan County, Hunan Province
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摘要: 灾害频发不断困扰乡村,如何精准识别乡村领域的综合灾害风险成为当下防灾减灾的重要内容。为此,以湖南省花垣县232个村为例,基于区域灾害系统理论中风险形成的三要素,定义综合灾害风险指数,并构建体现孕灾环境动态性的评价体系。通过层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)-优劣解距离法(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)、熵权-TOPSIS、AHP和熵权法4种模型比较,开展乡村综合灾害风险研究。结论如下: ①多模型评价结果具有正相关性,数值比为1:0.877:0.740:0.539,且熵权-TOPSIS模型更适合案例区综合灾害风险评价; ②案例区综合风险指数的莫兰指数(Moran’s I)为0.74,具有较强的空间自相关性,且呈现“西高东低、局部显著”的空间分布特征。文章深化了乡村领域的综合灾害风险评价研究,可为科学指导乡村防灾减灾工作开展、保障乡村振兴战略安全实施提供实践经验和理论依据。Abstract: Frequent disasters continue to plague many rural areas, and the precise identification of the comprehensive disaster risk in rural areas is critical to disaster prevention and mitigation. With 232 villages in Huayuan County, Hunan Province as a case study, this study defined the comprehensive disaster risk index (CDSI) and constructed an assessment system reflecting the dynamics of disaster-inducing environment based on the three elements of risk formation stated in the regional disaster system theory. Then, this study investigated the comprehensive disaster risk in rural areas by comparing four models, namely the analytic hierarchy process - technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (AHP-TOPSIS), the entropy- TOPSIS, AHP, and the entropy weight method. The conclusions are as follows. The multi-model evaluation results show a positive correlation, with a CDSI ratio of 1:0.877:0.740:0.539. The entropy-TOPSIS model is the optimal model for the assessment of comprehensive disaster risk in the study area. The CDSI of the study area has a Moran’s I value of 0.74, a strong spatial autocorrelation, and spatial distribution characteristics of being high in the west, low in the east, and significant locally. This study deepens the assessment of comprehensive disaster risk in rural areas. It will provide practical experience and a theoretical basis for scientifically guiding rural disaster prevention and mitigation and ensuring the safe implementation of the rural revitalization strategy.
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